2002 Yaro League Diamond Mind Baseball Predictions by Peter Gammons*

*actually by Butch Garretson

February 22, 2002

1. Purpose
   To simulate several Diamond Mind Baseball seasons to observe the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams.
2. Methodology
   Using the post-draft rosters, 10 full seasons were simulated, using computer manager-selected lineups and pitching rotations.
   1. Accuracy Limitations
      1. The owners will select different lineups/pitching charts than the computer did.
      2. The owners will be limited to a 25-man active roster, but the computer had access to every eligible player.
      3. Injuries were turned on, with the Injury Rating setting used. This is the same setting that will be used during the regular season, but injuries cannot be accurately projected for any given season.
      4. Transactions for injuries, trades and waiver-wire pickups were not simulated. Injured players were replaced by players already on that team's roster, not from the waiver wire.
      5. Teams used the home parks they played in last year. Changing parks could have a significant impact on team scoring.
3. Past Performance
   
   1. This was tried for the first time last season.
      1. The pre-season sims indicated Arkansas, Newark, Vancouver, Vatican City, Harrison and Stanhope would reach the playoffs. The sims were 5-for-6, with Carolina replacing Harrison.
      2. At the other end of the scale, the sims correctly picked Honolulu for 13th place, and forecasted a logjam between 7th and 12th. But it looked like Philadelphia would finish right near the middle of the pack, and Phoenix would be dead last. After the sims were published, however, the Dragons switched from Coors Field to Kauffman Stadium, which helped save their beleaguered pitching staff and pushed the Dragons to within 4 games of a playoff spot.
4. Conclusions
   
   1. Butch still has too much free time on his hands.
   2. Four of last year's six playoff teams -- Arkansas, Newark, Vancouver and Carolina - appear bound for a return trip to the post-season. The Hoboken Cutters are giving their fans reason to be optimistic, finishing with the fourth-best record in 10 simulated seasons. The sixth slot could go to the Honolulu Sharks, who were off to a tremendous start last season before a horrific second-half nose dive. The best challengers appear to be two of last year's playoff teams, Stanhope and Wanaque (formerly known as Vatican City), but Columbia and Tijuana (Kentucky's new home) are right behind them. Bringing up the rear, the pre-season sims don't look good for Phoenix, Philadelphia, Brooklyn or Harrison, who will all be in the hunt for the first pick of the 2003 draft.

ARKANSAS GOLDEN FALCONS
Home Stadium: Quisenberry Memorial Park (Custom)
By every standard, the Golden Falcons are the favorites for the 2002 season. Arkansas finished first in the Morris Division in all 10 seasons, topped 100 wins 8 times and had the best record in baseball six times (plus one tie). In the fourth sim, the Golden Falcons finish just two games behind best-ever season in league history, Vancouver's 118-44 mark in 1997. The secret to their success? Pitching. The team gave up the fewest runs in the league by a wide margin, coupled with the second-best offense in baseball, averaging a league-best +238 run differential. The only thing likely to derail the Arkansas express are injuries to star hurlers Pedro Martinez and Kevin Brown, who combined for just 37 starts in real life but were far healthier in the simulations.

BROOKLYN BEAN COUNTERS
Home Stadium: Shea Stadium
The Bean Counters, who finished in a four-team logjam for 7th place during their inaugural season last year, didn't fare well in the pre-season sims - but then, last year a 12th-place finish was predicted. The team finishes in the bottom 5 in every season except the 9th, but that season they reach the playoffs on the strength of an 89-73 record. Perhaps not coincidentally, that's the only season the Bean Counters don't finish in the bottom 3 in scoring. Overall, the team finished last in runs scored, 11th in runs allowed and 13th in run differential.

CAROLINA MUDCATS
Home Stadium: Bullhead Memorial Stadium (Busch Stadium)
The Mudcats have already switched their home stadium to Fenway Park, although they may want to change back to Busch after reaching the playoffs in six of the simulated seasons, and forcing a playoff in a three-way tie for two spots in the 10th season. The Mudcats are a very balanced team, with the league's 5th-best offense and 6th-best pitching staff to combine for the 6th-best run differential and 5th-best record over the 10 seasons. However, Carolina may be the most vulnerable of the sims' post-season picks: Their roller-coaster seasons include three with 90+ wins, but also a 90-loss season. They have two seasons where they're the top-seeded wildcard team, but finish tied for 9th in two others.

COLUMBIA RATTLESNAKES
Home Stadium: Crusader Park (Shea Stadium)
Columbia dubbed a new nickname for the 2002, hoping to change their luck after 10 losing seasons. But the pre-season sims say this franchise is still snakebit. They reached the playoffs in just one season, and posted losing records seven times. In five seasons, they were among the bottom 5 teams. But this team could show dramatic improvement with just a little added offense: They already feature the league's second-best pitching staff, yielding just 681 runs in a typical season, and their run differential (-20) is a respectable 7th. But they put up the second-worst offense, scoring just 661 runs a season. With more offense, they could contend.

HARRISON RATS
Home Stadium: The Landfill (Custom)
In half of the simulated seasons, the Rats posted the worst record in baseball, and in three other seasons they were second-worst. Out of the 10 simulations, there were seven 100-loss seasons; the Rats did it five times. Their best season saw them climb to .500, but finish 3 games out of the playoffs. The team has the 10th-best offense, but that comes with the league's most generous pitching staff, combining for a league-worst -157 run differential.

HOBOKEN CUTTERS
Home Stadium: The Quarry at Cutter Field (Camden Yards)
In their inaugural season, the Cutters finished 11th, five games under .500 and six games out of the playoffs, hampered by the league's third-worst offense. The team's offense appears to be improved to merely average, 8th in the league, but that could be enough behind a pitching staff that gave up the third-fewest runs in the league, good for a fourth-best +41 run differential. The Cutters reached the playoffs six times, and in an seventh season they forced a one-game playoff for the sixth berth. They only fail to finish .500 once. In their best season, the Cutters go 94-68, finishing one game behind the Sugar Bears for the Hanover Division title.

HONOLULU SHARKS
Home Stadium: The Shark Tank (The Ballpark in Arlington)
The simulations paint the Sharks, last year's second-worst team, as one of the league's most improved squads. The Sharks were remarkably consistent, winning between 82 and 88 games eight times, and within 5 games of .500 in the two losing seasons. They reached the playoffs six times, tying with Hoboken for the final playoff berth in a seventh season. The Sharks edge out the Iron Fist for the league's third-best offense, and tie with Stanhope for the league's 9th-best pitching staff, finishing just behind the Cutters with the fifth-best run differential at +34.

NEWARK SUGAR BEARS
Home Stadium: The Cereal Bowl (Yankee Stadium)
If there's one team that can rain on Arkansas's victory parade, it's the defending world champions. The Newark Sugar Bears won the Hanover Division in all 10 simulations, won 100 or more games in five seasons and posted the league's best record three times (plus one tie). The Sugar Bears had the league's most prolific offense, averaging 910 runs a season, becoming the only team to top 1,000 runs in the third sim. The Sugar Bears also ranked fourth in runs allowed, posting the league's second-best run differential at +206.

PHILADELPHIA ENDZONE ANIMALS
Home Stadium: The Eagle's Nest(Astrodome)
It could be a fifth straight rebuilding year for the Philadelphia Endzone Animals, who have never finished within 40 games of first place in their history. Philadelphia, never finish closer than 10th place, one of three teams to miss the playoffs in all 10 simulated seasons. They have the league's third-fewest runs scored and third-most runs allowed, nicely balancing for the league's third-worst run differential. On the bright side, they never lose 100 games, nor do they ever finish last.

PHOENIX DRAGONS
Home Stadium: The Dragon's Lair (Kauffman Stadium)
Talk about consistency. The Dragons win 68-72 games in eight of the 10 simulated seasons – in the other two, they post a high of 74 wins, in the other, a low of 65. In their best two seasons they finish in a tie for 10th place, in their worst, 13th. Their offense, with the addition of superstar rookies Ichiro Suzuki, Juan Pierre and Juan Uribe, comes in at an almost-mediocre 9th, averaging 733 runs per season. But the pitching staff is bombarded, averaging a second-worst 854 runs per season for an 11th-place run differential.

STANHOPE MIGHTY MEN
Home Stadium: Stanhope Stadium (Yankee Stadium)
On paper, the Mighty Men make up for a merely adequate starting rotation with a tremendous bullpen and an explosive offense. And in three simulations – seasons 6 thorugh 8 – the three come together to give Stanhope its fifth-straight post-season appearance. But the margin for error is so thin that injuries to stars like Kerry Wood, Moises Alou or Bernie Williams can send the team hurtling out of contention – in one sim, all the way down to 12th place.

TIJUANA BANDITOS
Home Stadium: Hash Stadium (Shea Stadium)
After a three-year hiatus from the DMBL, former Newark Crimewave, Tampa Bay Sweat Sox and Lisbon Diabos owner Paul Barbosa returned with a new name and a new attitude. The Kentucky Hillbillies won 95 games and reached the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. But after taking a step backward last year, landing in a four-way tie for seventh place, Barbosa decided to start fresh – literally. He moved the team to Tijuana and adopted his league-leading fifth team nickname, the Banditos. Will South of the Border be kinder to the franchise? The sims put them in the playoffs twice, and in a third season wind up in a three-way tie for the final two playoff seeds. They also finish in a tie for last place in another season, and find themselves with a top-five pick in two other simulations. The Banditos won’t get much production from the league’s fourth-worst offense, but they finish right near the middle of the pack in runs allowed, tying with Stanhope for the ninth-best run differential at -35.

VANCOUVER IRON FIST
Home Stadium: The Irondome (Astrodome)
The defending Morris Division champions reach the playoffs in every simulated season but one, average the league’s third-best run differential behind the fourth-best offense and fifth-best pitching staff, and twice post the league’s second-best record. The Iron Fist join the two pre-season favorites, the Golden Falcons and the Sugar Bears, as the only team to average a 100+ run differential. But instead of worrying about catching up to Arkansas and Newark, Vancouver better start looking over its shoulder: The sims say they’re 11 games out of 2nd place, but just 8 games ahead of 7th.

WANAQUE WOLVERINES
Home Stadium: Busch Stadium
Rookie GM Jeremy Berger shocked Diamond Mind Baseball by taking the woeful, 111-loss Hillsborough franchise all the way to the playoffs on the strength of an 89-win season. And just as quickly as he arrived, Berger was gone, taking the Vatican City Cardinals with him in an attempt to establish a new Italian major league. Replacing Berger will be former Toledo Mutthens owner Jon Knowsley, who immediately began stirring the pot with talk of trading superstar shortstop Alex Rodriguez for a truckload of prospects. The jury is still out on whether Wanaque should rebuild for ’03 or roll the dice on another playoff run this season: In four seasons they reach the playoffs, finishing one game back in sim 7. But in two other sims they finish in the bottom five, plus a 90-loss season that saw the pitching staff cough up 830 runs. All those peaks and valleys level out to an eerily consistent 7th-best offense, 7th-best defense and 7th-best differential, producing the 7th-best record and the 7th-most playoff appearances. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, only the top six go to the big dance.