2007 Diamond Mind Baseball League Predictions

March 12, 2007

1. Purpose
   To simulate 10 Diamond Mind Baseball seasons to observe the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams.


2. Methodology
   Using the post-draft rosters, 10 full seasons were simulated, using computer manager-selected lineups and pitching rotations.
   1. Accuracy Limitations
      1. The computer picked the lineups, starting rotations and bullpen assignments for every team. The computer tends to favor players with lots of at-bats and innings pitched, even if another player compiled better statistics in limited duty; human owners tend to do the opposite. Also, the computer doesn't change lineups or pitching charts except for injuries.
      2. The owners will be limited to a 25-man active roster, but the computer had access to every eligible player on a team's 40-man roster (as of March 12).
      3. Injuries were turned on, with the Injury Rating setting used. This is the same setting that will be used during the regular season, but injuries cannot be accurately projected for any given season.
      4. Transactions for injuries, trades and waiver-wire pickups were not simulated. Injured players were replaced by players already on that team's roster, not from the waiver wire. 
      5. Because teams can still change their home stadium before the start of the 2007 season, each team has been assigned to "Neutral Park." The use of different parks during the season could affect team scoring.
      
      
3. Past Performance
   
   1. The simulations have been done for the past six seasons; last year may have been the computer's most accurate performance to date. 
   2. What they got right: Last year, the sims went 5-for-6 in terms of the top six and 5-for-6 for the bottom six. As for the other four teams, all picked to be around the middle of the pack, one reached the post-season by beating two of the others in one-game playoffs after the league's first-ever three-way tie for 6th place, while the fourth wasn't eliminated from contention until the final week of the season.
   1. The sims correctly picked five of the six playoff teams (Newark Sugar Bears, Vancouver Ironfist, Carolina Mudcats, Marietta Mighty Men and the Las Vegas Rat Pack), though in the wrong order.
   • The sims correctly picked Carolina and Las Vegas as post-season teams, even though neither had reached the post season in the previous season.
     
   2. The sims accurately predicted the Arkansas Golden Falcons, Philadelphia Endzone Animals, Hillsborough Hired Hitmen and Hoboken Cutters would be in the mix for the post-season around the middle of the pack.
   • The sims correctly forecast a tough year for Arkansas, a team coming off four straight World Series appearances.
   3. The sims also correctly predicted five out of the six worst teams (from the bottom-up: Honolulu Sharks, Phoenix Dragons, D.C. Bushslappers, Westwood Deductions and South Boston Gang), and got the order right for three of those five teams: Phoenix in 13th, Westwood in 11th and South Boston in 10th.
   • The sims correctly picked Honolulu, a team coming off three straight post-season appearances, as a non-factor in 2006. 
   4. The sims got one W-L record exactly right -- Hoboken's (82-80). They came within 1 win for Hillsborough and South Boston, and missed Carolina's record by 3 wins.
      
   3. What they got wrong: The computer got most of the big picture right but was fuzzy on a lot of the details.
   1. The sims thought Hillsborough had a better chance of making the post-season than Arkansas or Philly; as it turns out, Hillsborough finished behind Philly after losing a one-game playoff, and then Philly lost to Arkansas in another one-game playoff.
   • And even though the computer was dead-on with Hoboken's won-lost record, it thought that would be good enough for 7th; instead, the Cutters finished 9th.
   2. The computer also got the order all wrong on how the top teams would finish, predicting a "changing of the guard" at the top of the divisions with Carolina and Las Vegas posting the league's best records, while the Ironfist and Sugar Bears would have to battle it out for wildcard slots. Instead, the Vancouver finished 4 wins ahead of Carolina to take the Morris Division title, while Newark rolled to the fourth-most wins in league history, 24 games ahead of the Rat Pack, for their league-record sixth-straight Hanover Division title.
   • The Sugar Bears were by far the biggest overachievers, winning 25 more games (111-51) than the sims predicted (86-76). The next-best overachiever were the Ironfist, who were 6 wins better than predicted, followed by Arkansas at +5 and then Philly and Marietta at +4.
   3. The computer went 3-for-6 in terms of how the bottom of the standings would turn out. In the 10 sims, Honolulu finished with the worst record just once, a dubious honor they achieved in reality.
   • The Sharks were in fact the biggest underachievers, finishing 12 wins worse than expected -- and the computer thought they'd have a bad year! Instead of finishing 70-92 and in 12th place, the Sharks lost 104 games en route to a last-place finish. In fact, all the underachievers were teams the computer thought would be bad, but not quite that bad: Westwood at -10, Phoenix at -6, Las Vegas at -5 and D.C. at -4.
   4. Previous sim results: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. 


4. This Year's Conclusions
   
   1. The sims see 2007 shaping up Clint Eastwood style.
   1. The Good: The computer predicts four teams are locks for the post-season, reaching the big dance in all 10 sims. Another team is almost guaranteed a spot, reaching the playoffs eight times and missing just twice -- each time coming up just a game short.
   • The sims also predict two of last year's worst teams will make the playoffs -- and a run at the Ian Rintel Award as the most improved team.
     
   2. The Bad: There are six other teams that make the playoffs at least once in the 10 seasons, though the best of the group can only manage an average record of 82-80. Yet even if all five of the above teams get in, one of these six will claw its way into the post-season, where anything can happen.
   • Two perennial playoff teams are among this year's bubble squads -- and if the sims are right, there's room for only one of them to make it..
     
   3. The Ugly: Three teams never come close to the post-season; in fact, over all 10 simulated seasons, none of the three ever finishes above .500.
   • One of these three teams might challenge the DMBL record for most losses in a season!
     

ARKANSAS GOLDEN FALCONS
prediction: 78-84 (8-T), 835 rf (9th), 851 ra (8th), -16 margin (8th)
No playoffs?! What will the boys at 4-Way Lock & Door say about this? Mike "Stump" Matiash isn't worried. He beat the sims last season -- by virtue of a three-way tie for 6th place and then winning two play-in games -- and reached the post-season for a league-record 14th straight year. If he wants to make it a 15th year in a row, he'll have to beat the sims again -- but at least this time, he has Barry Bonds again. The sims aren't impressed, though. They see mediocrity across the board for the Birds, pegging them 9th in offense (835 runs for) and 8th in defense (851 runs against), for an 8th-best -16 run differential. But the Falcs are a tough team to figure this year; they have three seasons where they're very competitive (#1, #6 and #10) -- just missing the post-season in the first two and finally making the big dance, as the No. 6 seed, in the last one. But they also have two seasons where they're fantasically awful (#4 and #9); in the other five, they range from bad to mediocre. However, they are rather unlucky when it comes to their Pythagorean Wins Formula, with their overall record of 78-84 two wins worse than expected based on their run margin. In fact, in Sim #3, they tied for the second-unluckiest record in any of the 10 seasons, going 8 wins worse than expected. If they were 84-78, as Pythagoras says they should have been, they'd have another post-season appearance to their credit.

CAROLINA MUDCATS
prediction: 81-81 (7th), 852 rf (7th), 876 ra (10th), -23 margin (9th)
The Mudcats were the sims' darlings last year -- after a disappointing 8th-place finish in 2005, the computer thought they'd swim all the way to the league's best record. The 'Fish came up a little short, but still improved by 14 wins from the previous season, the second-best rebound of any team last year. But in 2007, the sims see a big step backward for Chris Pucci's squad, pegging them as a .500 team -- though that still might be good enough to lock up the No. 6 seed. Carolina's offense is just barely in the top half, ranking 7th (852 runs for), but their big problem is their pitching staff, which ranks fifth-worst (876 runs against), for a ninth-place -23 run margin.  Remember, this pitching staff gave up the fifth-fewest runs in baseball last year, and they still have the formidable punch of Roy Halladay and Carlos Zambrano at the top of their rotation. Yet the computer sees the staff falling apart in sim after sim; in their best effort, Sim #2, they're merely average. Since the offense is also around the middle of the pack, this team's playoff chances rest largely on how lucky they get -- and in that department, they're all over the map. Their 8 wins worse than their Pythagorean Won-Loss Record in Sim #10, but five or more wins better than it in #1, #2, #3, #5 and #9. And despite their so-so record, they still reach the post-season four times (tied for sixth-most of any team), and miss it by one game in Sim #5. For the Mudcats in 2007, it may be better to be lucky than good.

D.C. BUSHSLAPPERS
prediction: 92-70 (4th), 877 rf (5th), 783 ra (4th), +94 margin (4th)
After losing 101 games in their inaugural season last year, the sims predict a dramatic turn-around for the Bushslappers. New owner Jamie Landsman, who bought the franchise from founding owner Brian "Dizzy" Dissler, immediately went to work in turning around a franchise that never had a winning record or a playoff appearance. Last year, Landsman overhauled the roster, making several rebuilding trades and stockpiling draft picks; this year, the sims say, those moves will pay dividends. The Bushslappers were consistently one of the best teams in the sims -- they were one of just four teams to reach the post-season in all 10 simulated seasons, and they won the Morris Division four times, including Sim #7, where they tie for the best record in baseball. The Bushslappers are a balanced team, featuring the league's fifth-best offense (877 runs for) and fourth-best defense (783 runs against) for a fourth-best +94 run margin. If you're looking for a downside, the only possible negative is that the computer doesn't think D.C. is quite this good -- they out-perform their Pythagorean Won-Loss Percentage in six of the 10 sims, including Sim #8, when they overachieve by 6 wins, and Sim #8, when they're 8 wins better than expected. Overall, they're 2 wins better than their run margin would suggest. Even without those "lucky" wins, however, they'd still make the playoffs in every sim -- and be a likely contender for the Ian Rintel Award as the league's most-improved team. 

TEAM	YR	W	L	PCT.	#	RF	RA	MGN	PYTH	PW	PL	DIF
D.C.	1	88	74	0.543	5th	835	779	+ 56	0.535	87	75	+ 1
D.C.	2	95	67	0.586	3rd	913	787	+126	0.574	93	69	+ 2
D.C.	3	96	66	0.593	4th	908	787	+121	0.571	93	69	+ 3
D.C.	4	91	71	0.562	4th	898	797	+101	0.559	91	71	0
D.C.	5	85	77	0.525	5-T	847	798	+ 49	0.530	86	76	- 1
D.C.	6	88	74	0.543	4th	869	792	+ 77	0.546	88	74	0
D.C.	7	99	63	0.611	1-T	893	710	+183	0.613	99	63	0
D.C.	8	89	73	0.549	3-T	838	813	+ 25	0.515	83	79	+ 6
D.C.	9	100	62	0.617	2nd	909	796	+113	0.566	92	70	+ 8
D.C.	10	90	72	0.556	4-T	862	772	+ 90	0.555	90	72	+ 2
D.C.	TOT	92	70	0.568	4th	877	783	+ 94	0.556	90	72	+2

HILLSBOROUGH HIRED HITMEN
prediction: 82-80 (6th), 854 rf (6th), 853 ra (9th), +1 margin (6th)
Just like last year, the sims think the Hired Hitmen have the best chance among the middle-of-the-pack teams to secure the final wild card spot. Last year, the computer almost got it right -- Brent Campbell's squad finished with the sixth-best record, but so did two other teams. In the first-ever three-way tie-breaker, Hillsborough, with the tie-breaker advantage over both Philly and Arkansas, got to sit out and watch the Golden Falcons pound the Endzone Animals in the first play-in game; then the Hitmen traveled to Arkansas and were edged, 5-4, as the Birds soared to their league-record 14th straight playoff appearance. The Hitmen are out for revenge this year, but in reality the sims gave them better odds last year, when the computer thought they'd win 85 games and sport a nifty +43 run margin. This year, their margin for error is razor-thin -- just an 82-80 record, and a teensy +1 run margin, thanks to the league's 6th-best offense (854 runs for) and 9th-best defense (853 runs against). Still, they reach the post-season four times (tied for the sixth-most appearances, with Carolina), and even have two 90+ win seasons (Sim #2 and #5). It may sound simplistic, but the key to their success really is scoring more runs than they allow -- they have just one simulated season in which they have a positive run margin and don't reach the post season (Sim #4), and that's by far their "unluckiest" sim, five runs worse than their Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula says they should be. If they go 83-79 that season, as their run margin suggests they should be, they reach the post-season a fifth time. The problem isn't the offense, which is consistently in the top half each season; it's the pitching staff. When the pitchers hold it together, as they do in Sims #2 and #5, this is a playoff team; when they implode, as they do in Sim #3 (902 runs allowed), they're among the bottom five teams in the league. We'll see which Hitmen show up this year.

HOBOKEN CUTTERS
prediction: 68-94 (13th), 792 rf (10th), 897 ra (12th), -105 margin (12th)
Despite just missing the playoffs last year -- the Cutters finished 2 games behind the three-way tie for the sixth and final post-season berth -- owner Mark Hrywna thought it would be a rebuilding year in 2007. But after loading up on offense in the draft -- and tying for the third-best record in Spring Training -- it suddenly looked like his squad could get right back into the thick of things this year. The Cutters, an intriguing blend of young studs and veteran journeymen, may look good on paper and in the pre-season, but not to the computer, which expects Hoboken to suffer through the worst season in its seven-year history. The offense certainly appears to be upgraded from last year, but in the sims they struggle to emerge from the back of the pack, finishing fifth-worst (792 runs for). The pitching staff is the real culprit, though, finishing third-worst (897 runs against), for a miserable -105 run margin (12th place). The Cutters even suffer through two 100-loss seasons (Sims #2 and #3), and likely would have been the worst team in baseball in either year had it not been for the complete disaster that is the Las Vegas Rat Pack. The Cutters finish with the league's second-worst record at 68-94, never reaching the post season, and never finishing above .500. Their best performance, and only potential ray of sunshine, comes in Sim #8, where the pitching staff turns in its best-ever performance (811 runs allowed, tied for 6th); even though the offense isn't even mediocre (819 runs for, 9th place), that's still good enough for a 79-83 record and a +8 run margin. With better luck, Pythagoras says, they'd be 82-80 that year -- just one game out of the sixth seed. It's not much, but it could be enough to keep hope alive through one more rebuilding year.

HONOLULU SHARKS
prediction: 89-73 (5th), 916 rf (3rd), 826 ra (7th), +91 diff (5th)
The sims have never been fans of the Sharks; over the previous six years worth of sims, the computer thought Adam Kozubal's team would reach the playoffs, or even have a winning record, just once. Over that same time period, the Sharks reached the post-season three times, and just missed one other year. So what to make of the fact that the computer loves the Sharks in 2007? It says the Sharks' high-powered offense -- which averaged a third-best 916 runs per season over the 10 sims -- will be more than enough to compensate for a so-so pitching staff (826 runs allowed, 7th place) for a fifth-best +91 run differential. In a dramatic turn-around from last year's last-place finish, the Sharks reach the playoffs in eight of the 10 sims, including one season (Sim #7) in which they win the Hanover Division and tie for the best record in baseball. Both times they miss the post-season, they come up just one game short -- and in Sim #5, it's mostly due to bad luck, as their Pythagorean Record says they should have been five wins better than their 84-78 mark. Their only truly disappointing season is Sim #6, where the offense can only manage an 8th-best 821 runs, dragging down the run margin to a mediocre +3. It would appear the key to Honolulu's success in 2007 -- and a possible run at the Ian Rintel Award -- lies with its batters.

LAS VEGAS RAT PACK
prediction: 52-110 (14th), 720 rf (14th), 1061 ra (14th), -341 margin (14th)
Eric Wickstrom decided after the 2006 season that this would be a rebuilding year -- and he meant from the ground-up! The team that the sims loved last year -- it picked them to win the Hanover Division and post the league's second-best record -- is now by any standard of measure the worst team in sims history. They were last in offense (720 runs for), last in defense (1,061 runs allowed) and, of course, last in run margin (-341). To put into context just how bad that run margin is, consider that the worst run margin put up by any other team in any other single sim was -203 -- and the Rats averaged 130 runs worse than that! They twice lost 119 games (Sim #2 and Sim #5), which would be the second-worst season in league history -- behind only the famously bad Waikiki Keys (33-129) of 1993. What was the Rats best sim? They didn't have one; they finished dead last in every sim, a feat that has never been accomplished before; the closest anyone had come were the Phoenix Dragons in the 2001 sims, who were last in seven of the 10 sims (once in 11th, twice in 13th). The Pack also lost at least 100 games in every sim, another record formerly held by the Dragons in '01, who hit triple digits in losses six times (plus a 98-loss season and a 99-loss season). They also broke two other records set by the Dragons that year -- most losses (110), eight worse than the Dragons, and, in a landslide, worst run differential (-341) -- the Dragons had "only" a -234 run differential across those 10 sims. Oh, by the way, in case you were wondering? The sims whiffed badly on the Dragons' performance in 2001, who actually finished 78-84 -- 18 wins better than the sims predicted. (So maybe there is hope for the Rats this year after all!) They also posted a respectable -19 run differential. But there is a caveat. In those early days of the sims, we simply used the stadium the team had used the previous year, and the previous year, the Dragons had used Coors Field. But before the 2001 season, the Dragons switched to the more sane Kauffman Stadium, and the results were skewed accordingly. Now, in our enlightened age of sims, we use Neutral Parks to avoid this very outcome.

MATTHEW'S MIGHTY MEN OF MARIETTA
prediction: 98-64 (2nd), 939 rf (2nd), 754 ra (2nd), +185 margin (2nd)
It was an unusual season for the Mighty Men last year, who in July looked like they were making rebuilding trades for next year -- only to see the squad take off and roar into the post-season as a No. 4 seed! It appears David Landsman's team will keep rolling at least one more season, as the sims predict they will be the league's second-best team in 2007. The Mites are one of four teams to reach the post-season in all 10 sims, including twice as the top seed. Those two first-place finishes (Sims #2 and #3) are their only division-winning seasons, however; if they played in the Morris, they'd be the division winner five times. Deuces are wild when it comes to Marietta, as they rank 2nd in winning percentage, runs scored (939), runs allowed (754) and run margin (+185). They're also a remarkably consistent team, never finishing worse than tied for 3rd, and always with a healthy run differential. It appears that while they may have a tough time catching the division rival Sugar Bears, they certainly won't have any trouble advancing to the post-season for a fifth-straight year.

NEW JERSEY TEAM BUDDAHS
prediction: 74-88 (11th), 756 rf (12th), 815 ra (5th), -59 margin (11th)
There are two new teams in the league this year, and the computer didn't welcome either one with open arms into the DMBL. However, the sims gave at least a little hope to New Jersey's Mike Hornick, giving his team one playoff appearance in 10 sims (Sim #3), plus a near-miss (Sim #9, where they come up just 2 games short). A look inside the numbers reveals the sims really feel a lot better about New Jersey than Sardine City, the two teams formed by the dissolution of the Phoenix Dragons and Westwood Deductions. Looking at each team's Pythagorean Won-Loss record, the Buddahs are 75-87, just one win shy of their average winning percentage across all 10 sims, while Sardine City is regarded as the luckiest team in the sims, achieving a record 4 wins better than Pythagoras would credit them with (68-94). And while N.J. has that one playoff appearance, the closest Sardine City can get to 6th place is 3 games. So what do the Buddahs bring to the table? Surprisingly for a first-year franchise, their pitching staff is a solid 5th-place (815 runs against), but their offense sputters along (756 runs for). And in Sim #3, by far their best season, their pitching staff ranks 2nd in baseball (724 ra), a miraculous performance that might be tough to duplicate in reality. But still, with a luck, and the wisdom of the tao, this team could achieve inner peace with a post-season appearance in its first year of existence.

NEWARK SUGAR BEARS
prediction: 101-61 (1st), 999 rf (1st), 782 ra (3rd), +217 margin (1st)
For the second time in three years, the sims are confident that Butch Garretson's Sugar Bears will be the best team in baseball. ("Fix!") The Sugar Bears, as usual, sport the league's best offense (999 runs for), racking up 1,000 or more runs five times (a feat accomplished just once by another team). But their defense is also surprisingly solid, ranking third (782 runs against). That formidable combination yielded a league-best +217 run margin, as well as the league's best record and post-season appearances in all 10 sims. They win the Hanover Division seven times and post the league's best record four times -- no team achieves either accomplishment more times than they do. Newark's best season in terms of wins and losses is Sim #8, where they go 108-54 -- which is actually 3 wins less than last year. If you asked Pythagoras, though, he'd be more impressed by Sim #3 -- where the Sugar Bears post a +294 run margin, 40 runs higher than the next best performance (Newark, again, in Sim #4). In fact, Newark's average run differential of +217 is better than any other team's best run differential in any sim save one... The sims appear confident that the Sugar Bears will be reaching the post-season for a 12th straight year -- and perhaps play in an unprecedented seventh straight World Series.

PHILADELPHIA ENDZONE ANIMALS
prediction: 93-69 (3rd), 841 rf (8th), 707 ra (1st), +134 margin (3rd)
The Endzone Animals landed in a three-way tie for the final playoff berth last year, but were eliminated after the Arkansas Golden Falcons pounded them, 11-1, in a one-game playoff. It may be difficult for teams to put that kind of hurting on the Animals this season, however -- they have by far the league's stingiest defense, giving up just 707 runs over the 10 sims -- including four years where they come in under 700 runs, a feat accomplished by another team just once. They are one of four teams to reach the post-season in all 10 sims, and post the league's best record twice, tie for it once, and win their division five times. Their only problem is their offense, which ranges from average to poor, and generally settles around an 8th-place mediocre (841 runs for). Still, since their pitching staff gives up so few runs, even a mediocre offense is good enough to generate a third-best +134 run margin. The Animals are a little unlucky, finishing with less wins than Pythagoras expects in six of the 10 sims, including Sim #8, when they finish 8 wins worse than expected, tied for the second-biggest underachiever over the 10 seasons. Assuming owner Anthony "Bocci" Pucci doesn't break any mirrors or walk under any ladders, the sims are confident the Endzone Animals won't need to win a play-in game to reach the post-season.

SARDINE CITY STRAPHANGERS
prediction: 72-90 (12th), 749 rf (13th), 882 ra (11th), -133 margin (13th)
Joining Team Buddah as the other new kid on the block, the Straphangers may have a tougher year ahead of them, but a brighter future awaits. While the Buddahs put a priority on signing plenty of "name brand" veterans in order to put a ready-made product on the field, Greg Calvosa appeared to take a more from-the-ground-up approach, focusing his draft on youngsters and prospects. While that may prove to be the better strategy for the long run, at least for right now, the sims don't give the Straphangers much of a chance of pulling out of the station. The second-worst offense (749 runs for) combines with the fourth-worst defense (882 runs against) for a second-worst -133 run margin. They are one of just three teams to never reach the post-season or post a winning record; the closest they come is Sim #9, when they go 80-82, good enough for an 8th place finish, 3 games out of the final playoff spot. Of course, grumpy ol' Pythagoras isn't impressed, saying they should've been 79-83 that sim anyway! Actually, Pythagoras doesn't like the Sardines at all. In Sim #3 -- where they unbelievably go 76-86 despite a -203 run differential -- his formula says overachieved by a whopping 14 games. In Sim #4 they were 11 games better, and in Sim #6 they were 9 games better. Overall, they were 4 games better than their run differential, more like 68-94 than 72-90. Either way, it doesn't make much of a difference: It looks like the Straphangers won't be able to find a seat in the post-season tournament until 2008 at the earliest.

SOUTH BOSTON GANG
prediction: 78-84 (8-T), 781 rf (11th), 823 ra (6th), -42 margin (10th)
The computer looks at Paul Barbosa's 2007 squad -- and doesn't see much of a change from the 2006 version. Last year, the computer thought the Gang would go 79-83; this year, it's predicting 78-84. Last year, the computer thought the Gang's respectable pitching staff would be undone by its punchless lineup; this year, the computer says the offense ranks 11th (781 runs for) while the defense ranks 6th (823 runs for). And finally, last year, the computer predicted a 10th-place -41 run margin; this year, it's calling a 10th-place -40 run margin. (In case you were curious, the sims nailed South Boston last year; they went 78-84 with a -48 run margin!) The sims do present a few glimmers of hope for the Gang, however. They finish with a winning record three times, and at 80-82 twice; they reach the playoffs once (Sim #5), miss it by one game once (Sim #8), and post a positive run margin a total of four times. Typically, the Gang finishes in no-man's land between 8th and 10th place -- too far back to have a real shot at the post-season, but not bad enough for a great lottery pick. Things get ugly for this squad when the pitching staff collapses; in three of the sims, they post a negative run margin in the triple digits. With the exception of Sim #7, when the offense unexpectedly explodes for more than 900 runs, this team's best chance at a surprise post-season appearance is through pitching... and luck. In their lone playoff season, the Gang win a remarkable 11 games more than their Pythagorean Won-Loss Record.

VANCOUVER IRONFIST
prediction: 77-85 (10th), 896 rf (4th), 899 ra (13th), -2 margin (7th)
Every year there's a team the computer has a hard time figuring out, and this year it just might be the defending Morris Division champs. Will owner Yaro Zajac be celebrating a return to the post-season, as the team does in Sim #6, and almost does in Sims #4 and #5? Or will he watch in frustration as the team plummets to the worst finish in its 16-year history, as it does in Sim #3? For the most part, the answer is somewhere in between, as Vancouver -- like arch-rival Arkansas -- generally settles in the high-70s. The problem isn't the offense, which rakes to the tune of a 4th-best 896 runs scored; but instead the pitching staff. Last year, we saw Vancouver win the division despite leading the league with 915 runs allowed; this year, they're almost as generous, giving up a second-worst 899 runs. Still, just like last year, the offense is enough to compensate, as they wind up with a 7th-best -2 run differential. So how do they wind up in 10th place? Just bad luck -- they finish with a worse record than their Pythagorean Won-Loss Record would indicate in nine of the 10 sims! Going by Pythagoras, they're a .500 or better team in six of the 10 sims -- and overall, tied for 7th place, just a game out of the sixth and final playoff seed. If Zajac wants to avoid missing the post-season for just the third time in league history, he'll have to prove the computer wrong and Pythagoras right.