2003 DMB Draft Review: Overall the 2003 draft was extremely light on the offensive side of the ball. While there were 81 pitchers with an ERA under 4.00, there were only 8 hitters who hit .300 or above and 17 offensive players who hit .280 or higher. The imbalance of talent caused risks to be taken from the early rounds through to the supplemental rounds and occasionally a pick was made that caused heads to shake all over America. The first round usually goes in some semblance of an orderly fashion with no real surprises but pick #6 Mark Bellhorn to the Carolina Mudcats surprised a lot of people in the room. His pop and versatility make him an extremely valuable addition to any team and the offensive weakness of the draft justifies the pick in my mind. The Best Pick of the 1st Round is Junior Spivey. He is reasonably young, with a good batting average and some speed. He is an attractive addition to the Bean Counter's weak line up. I understand Phoenix picking Shea Hillebrand in the first round due to the weakness on the hitting side of the draft, but his sub .800 OPS, horrendous real life second half and the Red Sox willingness and desire to dump him make him a mediocre pick at best and a wasted pick for Phoenix at worst so we have to classify him as the Worst Pick in the First 1st Round. The second round started the multitude of picks that will do absolutely no good for 2003. Hideki Matsui and Jose Contreras are both professional performers and will most likely produce in real life and should be very good DMB players in '04. However, the Worst Pick of the 2nd Round goes to Columbia with the selection of Francisco Rodriguez. Five innings and a great playoffs does not an all-star make. If he wins the Rookie of the Year Award in real life, I'm wrong, but I don't think that is going to happen. Vancouver's Bobby Kielty is without a doubt the Best Pick in the 2nd Round. With an almost .900 OPS and a .303 average against right handed pitching Kielty is on his way to being one of the top hitters in baseball. The Best & Worst Pick of the 3rd Round is Brooklyn's Mike Redmond. He could be a one-year wonder along the lines of Chris Stynes (2001 Sugar Bears) or Terry Shumpert (2000 Rabbis/Mighty Men). Although Redmond hit .312 versus right handed pitching and .280 versus lefties and fills a need for Brooklyn's lineup his empty, .300 average (2 HR 28 RBI) and mediocre .758 OPS may not translate into much production for the Bean Counters. If this was a draft for 2004 Preston Wilson may be the best pick of this round. If he can dial back his strikeouts a little bit he could probably hit .300 with 45 dingers in Colorado. That would mean a lot for the '04 Banditos. Harrison's Mark Texiera and Philly's Erubiel Durazo won't be eligible this year, but both are poised to put up monster numbers in real life and monster DMB numbers in '04. Hoboken's pick of Andy Benes, even though he does not have a ton of innings pitched is the Best Pick in the 4th Round. Getting a starter with a sub 3.00 ERA in this round is a coup. Phoenix's Juan Rivera is the Worst Pick of the 5th Round. Juan is fifth on the list of Yankee outfielders and is going to struggle for playing time. In a weak round Stanhope's Carlos Lee is probably the Best Pick of the 5th Round. He will provide valuable At Bats versus left handed pitching as well as solid defense. Also in the strengthened real life White Sox line up he could easily revert to his 2000 numbers. (.301 Avg., 107 runs, 92 RBI, .829 OPS) The sixth round contained the often-drafted Jesse Foppert (picked by 6 other teams after Harrison drafted him with the first pick of the sixth round.) Stanhope's Eli Marrero is definitely the Best Pick of the 6th Round. His versatility (eligible at catcher and outfield) and pop (18 HR in real life) make him a unique player. Columbia's Jeff Cirillo is the Worst Pick of the 6th Round and maybe the worst pick in the draft. A 33 year old who never had much pop to begin with losing 64 points off his average is just too dangerous to draft at all. Especially when Robin Ventura and his .826 OPS, 27 HR and 93 RBI was still available. I hate to say this but Philly's Randall Simon is the Best Pick in the 7th Round. Getting a hitter with a .300 average this late is a great pick even though Randall's .300 could be considered a little on the empty side. (19 HR, 51 R, 82 RBI) Hillsborough's pick of Roger Cedeno is the Worst Pick of the 7th Round. He was awful last year, has not played well in two years and is in danger of being benched in real life in favor of a Timo Perez/Tsuyoshi Shinjo platoon. His stolen bases are worthless with his on base as low as it is. (.318 OBP) This begs the eternal question; 'What good is being fast if you are never on base?' Carolina's Grant Roberts is the Best Pick of the 8th Round. 25 years old, a 2.20 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 34 innings all make him an attractive pitcher. Getting someone of his caliber in the eighth round is all the evidence you need to understand how deep the pitching was this year. You can't classify any pick in this round as the worst but Arkansas Heep Seop Choi is definitely the biggest risk. Round nine brought a lot of risks but according to almost every scouting report Marlon Byrd is the best of them. Hillsborough got a future star with this pick. Tijuana's pick of Mo Vaughn could be the riskiest pick in this round but his healed injuries and slimmer physique could pay big dividends for '04. The Worst Pick of the 10th Round is easily Russ Branyan. This guy is a bust. Once a highly touted Indians prospect he is a strikeout machine now. If he ever got 550 at bats in a season he would probably hit about 35 homers, drive in 75 runs, and whiff over 200 times. If Phoenix uses him as anything more than a situational pinch hitter he is really going to hurt the Dragons. Hillsborough's Tino Martinez is the Best Pick of the 10th Round. He has enough left for one more big year and should be afforded a lot of protection in the Cardinals real life line up and he should perform well in '04. Brooklyn's Timo Perez hit .318 versus right handed pitching. He will pit up huge DMB numbers in a platoon. He is the Best Pick of the 11th Round, how he lasted until the 11th round is some sort of miracle. Stanhope's Jose Reyes is the Worst Pick in the 11th Round. The Mets real life manager Art Howe is very focused on his veterans and he has already said that Reyes will start in AAA. Unless the Mets falter, trade off some of their veterans and go with a youth movement I expect Reyes to spend most of the year in Norfolk. Harrison's David Bell is the Best Pick of the 12th Round. He has decent numbers, positional flexibility and should pay benefits in '03 and '04 for the Rats. This late it is hard to classify any pick as truly awful, but aside from the positional flexibility of Denny Hocking he doesn't bring much else to the table for Newark. Newark and its organizational commitment to the platoon makes Jack Wilson the Best Pick of the 13th Round. Not only does he play stellar defense but Wilson hit.360 versus left handed pitching in well over 100 at bats. He is a Sugar Bear type player through and through. Stanhope's undying wish for Jon Rauch to become Randy Johnson will probably never be realized. (Rauch is 6'8") That makes him the Worst Pick in the 13th Round. Phoenix grabbing up Javy Lopez here is the Best Pick of the 14th Round. He won't provide much in '03 be he has lost significant weight and should be a solid contributor in '04. Julio Franco at age 400 should retire and Hoboken should let him. Here we are at round 15 and really, who cares? For the sake of continuity Philly's Jason Marquis will really help in '04 and Arkansas' Barry Larkin will probably never help again. Normally, I would not write about the supplemental rounds as they filled with scrubs, wannabes, never weres and a bunch of guys who may be cut before this article is published. However, since the supplemental rounds contained the IMDB.com Pick of the Draft I thought I would say a few words. The Newark sugar Bears drafted the re-animated corpse of Darryl Kile with the very last pick in the draft. Sure, there is no future here but getting a sub 4.00 ERA pitcher with this late a pick for even one season qualifies as the best pick in this draft. John Sickels is the author of the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and is now working on the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book. His biography of Bob Feller will be published next spring. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at JohnSickels.com. |