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| Preview: The Wild Card Round | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The games 1, 2 and 5 -- if necessary -- will be home games for the higher seeded team in this best-of-5 series. Injuries are turned off for the playoffs, meaning a player can be injured only for that particular game, but can return for the next game. Pitching rotations are on a four-man skip rotation, meaning the fourth starter will be skipped if the first starter is ready to pitch. Since there are off days off games 2 and 4, some game 1 starters will be available in game 4 on three days' rest. The top seed to survive this round will take on the Vancouver Iron Fist (95-67); the lower-seeded survivor will face the Newark Sugar Bears (101-61). Vatican City (#3) vs. Carolina (#6) The Cardinals (89-73), a franchise that lost 111 games in Hillsborough last year, opened the season at 6-0, and later reeled off winning streaks of 7 and 10 games. After battling out the Morris Division lead with Arkansas and Vancouver all season long, the Cards finally settled for the top wildcard spot, taking 6 of their last 9 games on the season to assure homefield advantage in round 1. The Mudcats (82-80), meanwhile, stumbled into the playoffs, losing 14 of 18 before winning five of their last six games to finally lock up the last playoff spot in the last week of the season. They're the only playoff team with a negative run differential (793 runs scored, 811 runs allowed) and have the worst regular season record of any playoff team in DMBL history. But don't start printing Division Championship Series tickets for Vatican City just yet. If there's one team the Cardinals hoped to avoid in the first round, it was Carolina -- they were just 3-10 against them, their worst record against any opponent this season! 
Even more bad news for Vatican City: The Mudcats are built for the short series. Carolina has one of the deepest rotations in baseball, with Barry Zito (13-6, 3.47), Mike Sirotka (12-15, 3.57) and Mike Mussina (16-9, 4.11). The fourth starter, if necessary, will be either Robert Person (9-14, 5.81) or Tim Hudson (10-14, 6.21), who pitched much better than their overall records when facing the Cardinals: Both were 2-0 in two starts against them this season. Vatican City's rotation, meanwhile, has put them in holes all season long. Remarkably, the team with the third-best record in baseball has just two starters with a .500 or better record: Kirk Rueter (13-12, 6.72) and Todd Stottlemyre (8-7, 7.71). The team's nominal ace, Kevin Millwood, went 11-13 with a 5.78, and number two starter Bartolo Colon was a woeful 9-12, 6.27. Fifth starter Andy Benes won the ERA title: 5.74, to go with his 10-13 record. The Cardinals may have led the league with 10 come-back wins after trailing for 7 innings, but no playoff team trailed after 7 innings as often as the Cardinals did, falling behind in 73 games this year. This series pits yang vs. yang and yin vs. yin: The Cardinals rank second in most runs scored (1049), the Mudcats third in fewest runs allowed (811); Vatican City gave up far more runs (975) than any other playoff team, just as Carolina ranks last (793) among contenders in runs scored. Can Vatican City's powerful lineup overcome Carolina's tough pitching staff? Will the Mudcats' punchless offense come to life against the Cardinals' inept rotation? Conventional wisdom says good pitching stops good hitting, and so far this season that's been the case between these two extreme teams. Case in point: Though the Cards bashed 262 home runs this season, only 10 came off Mudcats' pitchers. But there's one other factor to consider: The Cardinals have the best home record (53-28) in the DMBL this year, while the Mudcats have the worst road record (34-47) of any playoff team. Three of this series' five games will be played in Vatican City, and that could be enough of an edge to send the Cardinals into the divisional championship series against Vancouver.
Stanhope (#4) vs. Arkansas (#5) A rematch of the 2000 World Series sends the Golden Falcons (85-77) against Matthew's Mighty Men of Stanhope (86-76). The Mighty Men have history on their side -- not only did Stanhope (then the Jerusalem Rabbis) put away the two-time defending world champions in six games last year, but the Falcons came up short in the season series this year, losing 7 of 12 games.
Meanwhile, just like the Vatican City Cardinals, Stanhope's starting rotation has been a disaster. The Mighty Men also have just two starters with winning records: Dave Burba (10-5, 4.25) and Kerry Wood (2-1, 5.68 before being sent to Triple-A). Burba is a solid pitcher, but hardly on the level of a Martinez or Brown, and he hasn't shown the endurance this season to ensure he'll be ready for a game 4 on three days' rest. Rick Reed (3-3, 3.95 with Stanhope; 7-7, 3.85 overall) will probably be tabbed to take the hill in game 2. But who can the Mighty Men turn to for their game 3 and 4 starters: Wood, Mac Suzuki (8-9, 5.27), Carl Pavano (3-9, 5.81), Andy Pettitte (4-8, 6.04) or Chuck Smith (5-8, 6.06; 11-18, 4.37 overall)? Stanhope fans can't give up hope, however. Martinez (1-2, 3.43) and Brown (0-1, 4.15) weren't overpowering against them this year, but Burba (2-0, 3.18) looked sharp against them. And these Mighty Men have been one of the most resilient teams of the year -- with a league-leading 25 wins after trailing or tied after 7 innings, thanks to one of the best bullpens in baseball. This series will be decided by the starting pitchers. For Stanhope to win, their starters have to keep the game close enough for the offense to come back against Arkansas's bullpen. The Falcons' success will lie in their ability to score early and often against Stanhope's starters, taking their Mighty bullpen out of the equation.
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Like the Carolina Mudcats, it's in the short series that Arkansas is most dangerous. Pedro Martinez (14-10, 2.59)
and Kevin Brown (17-7, 3.93), who shared the Ben McDonald Award last season, are once again two of the league's
top starters. Both are workhorses, ranking among the league leaders in complete games and innings pitched, and it's probable
that Stanhope will face both of them twice should the series go the distance. They don't even get a break in game three --
not only will it be played in Quisenberry Memorial Park, but the Mighty Men will be going up against either Roger Clemens
(4-3, 5.09 with Arkansas; 9-7, 5.54 overall), Curt Schilling (15-10, 5.24) or Rick Ankiel (9-10, 4.73).