Games 1, 2, 5 and 7 are home games
for the
higher-seeded team in this best-of-7 series. Injuries
are turned off for the playoffs, meaning injuries are
only for that day's game. Starters are on a four-man
skip rotation, meaning the fourth starter will be
bumped if the first starter is ready to go on three
days' rest. Since there are off days after games 2, 4,
5, 6 and 7, it's possible (but unlikely) that a team's
ace could start three games in the series. Benched
starters can be moved to the bullpen.
The two teams that survive this round
will face off in the 12th DMBL World Series.
Arkansas Golden Falcons (#2, 94-68)
vs. Stanhope Mighty Men (#3, 94-68)
The
Golden Falcons have been in four of the last five World's
Championships, and they'd love to go through the Mighty Men to be there
again this season. For it was Stanhope -- playing as the Jerusalem
Rabbis -- that denied the Golden Falcons their chance to become the
first three-peat team in history in 2000, when they lost the World
Series in a thrilling six game series. These two teams have had one
other post-season match-up, in the following season -- and the Golden
Falcons sent the Mighty Men home in the first round, three games to
one. Meanwhile, the Mighty Men are bouncing back from a 92-loss season
last year to reach the playoffs for the fifth time in their eight-year
history. These two teams actually tied for the league's second best
record, but the Falcs get the higher seed (and homefield advantage) as
the division winner. The Birds also took the regular season series, 7
games to 5, with six of their seven wins coming in the second half of
the season. The Mighty Men went 3-3 at home against the Featherheads,
but just 2-4 in Arkansas.
After the best regular season in
league history last year (120-42), Arkansas GM Mike "Stump"
Matiash was hoping to be the top seed again this post-season
after leading his team to the league's
best record -- until two weeks before the All-Star Break, when they
dropped 13 of 19 games to fall 2½ games behind Newark at the
mid-way mark. Despite some front-page trades to bring in veteran
reinforcements, the Golden Falcons continued to lose ground over the
second half,
posting the league's sixth-best record (40-37) over the second half
despite posting a third-best +30 run differential (379 RF, 349 RA) over
final three months of the season. The Mighty Men, on the other hand,
were the league's third-best team over each half of the season, despite
giving up more runs (382) than they scored (360) over the second half
of the season for a fifth-worst -22 run differential! Statistical
anomaly, or harbinger of things to come? Neither team was exceptionally
hot nor cold at the end of the season, and it remains to be seen who
drew the bigger advantage from the first round of the playoffs:
Arkansas by getting a breather with a bye, or Stanhope by picking up
momentum with a 3 games to 1 win over Hillsborough.
Stanhope's obvious weakness is its
pitching staff -- they're fourth-worst in runs allowed (777),
fourth-worst in walks (565), third-worst in ERA (4.32) and second-worst
in home runs allowed (182), and rank last among playoff teams in most
pitching categories. But the team also has some considerable strengths
in the league's third-best offense (795 runs scored) and one of the
league's top bullpens. The Golden Falcons, on the other hand, are
perhaps the most balanced team in the league, with the league's
second-best offense (855 runs scored) and third-best pitching staff
(699 runs allowed), for a second-best +165 run differential. The Mighty
Men cancel out at least a couple of their strengths, though. The Golden
Falcons murder left-handed starters (.674), but the Mighty Men are
unlikely to start a lefty in the series against them; Arkansas is
"only" 65-54 (.546) against righties -- which is still good enough for
fourth place in the DMBL. And, although the Golden Falcons host four of
the seven games and have the second-best home record (.642), the Mighty
Men are the league's second-best road warriors (.531).
Stanhope's grisly starting pitching statistics
are somewhat misleading because GM David Landsman
bolstered his rotation by adding an ace at the trading deadline: Derek Lowe (7-2, 2.58 ERA, 10.2 R/9 in 9 games
with Stanhope; 17-8, 3.09, 10.0 overall), who dominated the Destroyers
in the first round (2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.59 WHIP). The Mighty Men will
likely count on Tim
Wakefield (19-9, 2.96 ERA, 8.9 R/9) and Matt
Clement (17-6, 3.96 ERA, 11.7 R/9) for games 2 and 3. They'd be
wise to use Lowe again in Game 4; as noted above, the Falcons feast on
left-handed starters, which is bad news for southpaws Damian Moss (13-15, 4.96 ERA, 15.0 R/9) and Tom Glavine (4-4, 5.66 ERA, 14.1 R/9 in 10
starts for Stanhope); nor would it be a good idea to call on forgotten
phenoms Kerry Wood (7-9, 5.22 ERA, 14.3 R/9;
1-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP in two starts against ARK) or Elmer Dessens (7-9, 5.25 ERA, 13.6 R/9; 1-1,
5.59 ERA, 1.86 WHIP in four starts against ARK). If the Mighty Men can
keep it close into the late innings, they can confidently hand the ball
to Mariano
Rivera (3-3, 37 SV, 2.54 ERA, 10.4 R/9), who is well rested after
not being used in the first round. Despite some ugly numbers by the
rest of the bullpen -- only lefty Joey
Eischen (2-3, 3.49 ERA, 10.8 R/9) has an ERA under 4.00 -- the
Mighty Men have blown just 12 saves all
year, tied for the fewest in baseball, and they have the league's
second-best record when leading or tied after seven innings
(85-11).
Arkansas's pitching staff, to quote
the Talking Heads, is the "same as it ever was" -- Curt
Schilling (19-6, 2.90 ERA, 9.2 R/9), Pedro
Martinez (16-10, 3.92 ERA, 11.2 R/9) and Roger
Clemens (12-13, 4.47 ERA, 12.8 R/9). Only Schilling is worthy of
consideration for the Ben McDonald
Pitcher of the Year Award this season, but the other two are
still among the most feared big game pitchers in baseball, capable of
shutting down any lineup. If they have to go to a fourth starter,
they'll likely turn to mid-season acquisition Rodrigo
Lopez (4-4, 3.94 ERA, 13.7 R/9 in 11 games with Arkansas; 7-14,
4.51 ERA, 12.2 R/9 overall), a first-round pick by the Vancouver Iron
Fist who started living up to his potential as soon as he put on a
Golden Falcons uniform. Lopez went 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in
two starts against Stanhope during the regular season, both times with
Arkansas. The Falcs are unlikely to call on the services of C.C. Sabathia (11-9, 4.94 ERA, 14.2 R/9), Kevin Brown (7-5, 5.33 ERA, 14.9 R/9) or Al Leiter (3-3, 6.96 ERA, 19.6 R/9 in 9 games
with Arkansas).
Any conversation about the Golden Falcons'
offense begins and ends with Barry Bonds (.359,
1.239 OPS, 51 HR, 134 R, 144 RBI, 172 BB), who has an excellent chance
of becoming the first player in league history to win the Kevin Mitchell Most Valuable Batter Award
in back-to-back seasons. Arkansas's lineup revolves around Bonds, but
that's not to say the rest of the order is a bunch of slobs: Larry Walker (.305, .908 OPS, 42 2B, 33 HR, 143
R, 101 RBI), Lance Berkman (.265, .914 OPS,
35 HR, 97 RBI), Ellis Burks (.278, .768 OPS,
23 HR, 104 RBI) and John Olerud (.276, .758
OPS, 19 HR, 99 R) love to make opposing pitchers pay for overlooking
them while looking at when Sir Barry will next be coming up to the
plate. Manager George Brett
has been mixing up the of the lineup throughout the sason, but lately
has gone with Jose Vizcaino (.291, .659
OPS in 251 AB), Tony Womack (.268, .621 OPS
in 354 AB), Joe Girardi (.255, .578
OPS in 157 AB), Tyler Houston (.248, .621 OPS
in 137 AB) against righties. As a team, the Golden Falcons lead the
league in batting average (.279) and rank second in OPS (.780) and OBP
(.354) and third in SLG (.426) and HRs (191), and they love to put the
ball in play (797 Ks, second fewest in baseball). They aren't much of a
running team, however, ranking 13th in triples (13) and just eighth in
stolen bases (48), despite being second in most times caught stealing
(29).
The Mighty Men rank third in batting
average (.272), third in OPS (.762), second in
SLG (.427), first in doubles (304), fifth in HRs (171) and second in
SBs (78). The team's best hitter is veteran Bernie
Williams (.319, .832 OPS, 15 HR, 97 R, 83 RBI), who hit .333 (.878
OPS) in the first round against Hillsborough; Todd
Helton (.285, .882 OPS, 31 HR, 101 R, 96
RBI), Cliff Floyd (.297, .873 OPS, 36 2B, 85
R), Johnny Damon (.294, .820 OPS, 75 R, 17
SB), Tim Salmon (.291, .866 OPS, 41 2B, 85
RBI) and Derek Jeter (.284, .736 OPS, 79 R,
14 SB) are also top performers. Stanhope fans can take comfort in this
stat: Alfonso Soriano, who had a disappointing
sophomore season (.238, .659 OPS, 23
HR, 79 RBI, 28 SB), looked impressive in the first round, hitting .294
(.941 OPS) with three doubles and a dinger. If the Mighty Men pull off
the upset, it will be because Soriano stays hot in the second round.
Newark Sugar
Bears (#1, 111-51) vs. Carolina
Mudcats (#4, 88-74)
The
Sugar Bears are hungry for their third DMBL Championship in a row --
and fourth title in franchise history -- while the Mudcats are looking
for their first-ever World Series appearance. These two teams have met
once before in the post-season, in the second round of the 2001
playoffs. The scenario was somewhat familiar: The Sugar Bears were the
No. 1 seed after winning the Hanover Division, and the Mudcats were the
long-shot underdog. But the sixth-seeded Mudcats shocked the
third-ranked Vatican City Cardinals with a first-round victory in five
games and were suddenly everybody's favorite Cinderella story. Four
games later, the clock struck midnight as the Sugar Bears handily swept
the 'Cats out of the post-season en route to the 2001 title.
This is a classic match-up, pitting the team that scored the most runs
(Newark, 966) against the team that gave up the fewest runs (Carolina,
639). But while the Mudcats scored just 706 runs, fourth-worst in
baseball and the least of any playoff team, Newark's defense allowed
just 713 runs, fourth-best in
baseball. That leaves the Sugar Bears with a league-best +253 run
differential, and Carolina with a third-best +67 margin. Newark took
the season series this year, 8 games to 4, going 4-2 against the
Mudcats both at home and away. Interestingly, the 'Cats won the first
four regular season match-ups between these two, only to see Newark win
the next eight. Carolina GM Chris Pucci
hopes his squad can book-end the 2003
campaign with another four wins against Newark, and no one will
remember those eight losses... Both teams finished the second half very
strong, with Newark
a league-best 56-24 (.700) and Carolina second at 50-32 (.610). The
Sugar Bears, by virtue of the league's best record and their Hanover
Division title, have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. But
while Newark had the league's best record at home (.691), they also had
the league's best road record (.679), so they may not care where they
play. The Mudcats, on the other hand, are a far better at home (.593)
than on the road (.494).
Carolina's starting rotation of Barry Zito
(10-11,
3.08 ERA, 12.4 R/9), Roy
Halladay (15-9, 3.47, 12.4), Tim
Hudson (16-9, 3.47, 12.4) and Cory Lidle
(15-9, 3.56, 11.7) held the Sharks to just a .204 BA, .549 OPS in the
first round, and the Mudcats are expected to go with the same foursome
against Newark. The Carolina 'pen, led by closer Jose Mesa
(6-8, 35 SV, 3.23 ERA, 11.6 R/9) and set-up man Brendan Donnelly
(3-5, 4 SV, 7 holds, 3.39 ERA, 12.2 R/9), ranks first in preventing
runners from
scoring (.280) and second in save percentage (.729). Mesa picked up a
save in the first round (0 R, 2 H, 0 BB in 1 IP) and Donnelly retired
all four men he faced, but with Halladay, Hudson and Lidle all throwing
complete games in the first round, the bullpen should be well-rested.
The Mudcats' young studs may be the pitchers of
tomorrow, but Newark
counters with a DMBL Hall of Famer in Randy Johnson
(18-9, 4.75 ERA, 13.4 R/9, 245 K in 217.2 IP). Though he didn't have
his best season, the 38-year-old lefty still struck out a league-best
10.1 batters per nine innings and is capable of dominating any
lineup in baseball. Behind the Big Unit, the Sugar Bears will do their
usual mixing and matching of has-beens and never-weres who blossom
under the tutelage of pitching coach Mike Grace.
This year, Johnson
will likely be followed by Brian Meadows
(17-5, 3.79, 11.2) and Runelvys Hernandez
(11-8, 3.64,
11.5), their most consistent pitchers throughout the regular season. If
they have to turn to a fourth starter, don't be surprised if it's Orlando Hernandez
(1-2, 8.31, 17.3 in 5 starts with Newark) -- despite his awful
numbers,
El Duque thrives on big game pressure and looked sharp against Carolina
in his only start against them this year (2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB in 8 IP). The
other option, Andy
Pettitte (13-6, 4.30, 13.5), hasn't faced Carolina this season and
the 'Cats are slightly better against left-handed starters (.565) than
righties (.534). After the starters are out of the game, the advantage
may tilt toward Newark: They rank first in save percentage (.761) and
have a Ben McDonald Award
candidate in closer John Smoltz (4-1, 45 SV,
0.61 ERA, 7.6 R/9), who set the DMBL record for most saves, most relief
points and lowest single-season ERA. Smoltz was a starting pitcher for
eight seasons, including two with the Mudcats, before coming to Newark
from Carolina three years ago for Jim Edmonds,
who is still with the 'Cats... The 'pen got a terrific mid-season boost
in Jayson Durocher (7-0, 3 holds, 1.37 ERA,
6.7 R/9), and have double-barreled set-up men in Scott
Stewart (2-1, 4 SV, 3.03, 11.0) and Keith
Foulke (8-6, 1 SV, 3.22, 12.0).
What's the secret to Newark's
pitching success? Simple -- score six runs a night! Newark's 6.0 runs
per game average is 1.4 runs better than the league average, and four
Newark starters ranked in the top 10 in RPG. GM Butch Garretson
has assembled a modern day murderer's row with 3-4-5-6-7 hitters Jim Thome (.314, 1.214 OPS, 65 HR, 154 RBI), Manny Ramirez (.331, .997 OPS, 35 HR, 113 RBI), Chipper Jones (.282, .805 OPS, 22 HR, 125 R), Bobby Abreu (.279, .843 OPS, 48 2B, 108 R) and Mike Piazza (.286, .876 OPS, 7 HR, 30 RBI in 112
AB with Newark; .290, .876 OPS, 37 HR, 113 RBI overall). The rest of
the lineup is exemplified by Jeremy Giambi
(.243, 143 Ks), a seriously flawed hitter who concentrated on what he
did best (.401 OBP, 36 HR, 112 R); SS Jose
Hernandez (.260, .714 OPS, 18 HR, 97 RBI), 3B Mark
McLemore (.240, 68 R, 10 SB) and 2B Alex Cora
(.274, 24 2B, 65 R) have all found a way to contribute to the league's
most prolific offense.
Carolina's offense, on the other hand, scored
the fourth-fewest runs this season (706). But they were in
the middle of the pack in OPS (.717, 8th) and they do have some power,
with the third-most home runs (185). The team's best hitter,
25-year-old Aubrey Huff
(.294, .803 OPS, 30 HR, 94 R, 87 RBI), shone on the national stage in
the first round, winning Batter of the Week Award honors after hitting
.500 with a league-leading 4 HR, 1.665 OPS and 12.9 runs created. The
rest of the lineup exemplifies the theory that if you hit enough
home runs, no one cares about batting average or strikeouts: Edmonds
(.247, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 146 K), Richie Sexson
(.254, 21 HR, 95 RBI, 139 K), Pat Burrell
(.243, 30 HR, 88 RBI, 138 K) and Mark Bellhorn
(.228, 29 HR, 72 RBI, 161 K). Speedsters Randy Winn
(.275, 19 3B, 89 R, 16 SB) and Torii Hunter
(.251, 19 HR, 74 R, 12 SB) provide another dimension to the offense.
The Fish Faithful were happy to see some signs of life -- albeit faint
ones -- from SS Rich
Aurilia (.222, .606 OPS in 518 AB) and C A.J.
Pierzynski (.229, .532 OPS in 512 AB) in the first round. Aurilia,
despite a .222 batting average, posted an .861 OPS and slugged two
doubles in 9 AB, while Pierzynski hit .263 with 3 RBI, though the
struggles continue for fan favorite Aramis Ramirez
(.190, .702 OPS in the regular season; .143, .393 OPS in the first
round). Former Sugar Bear Raul Mondesi
(.253, .800 OPS, 7 HR in 79 AB) and 2B Mark Grudzielanek
(.254, .594 OPS in 71 AB) are likely to see action against lefties.
Can Carolina deny Newark's bid for a
historic three-peat? It would be an upset of unprecedented proportions:
It would be the first time in DMBL history that the top-ranked team
didn't reach the World Series! But the Mudcats have already made
history by becoming the first No. 4 seed to survive the first round.
Carolina's rotation of young guns has been touted "the team of the
future" by sports prognosticators; a second-round upset and a World
Series appearance would mean the future is now.
|