2001 Yaro League Diamond Mind Baseball Predictions by Peter Gammons*

*actually by Butch Garretson

February 23, 2001

1. Purpose
   To simulate several Diamond Mind Baseball seasons to observe the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams.
2. Methodology
   Using the post-draft rosters, 10 full seasons were simulated, using computer manager lineups and pitching rotations.
   1. Notes
      1. The owners will select different lineups/pitching charts than the computer did.
      2. The owners will be limited to a 25-man active roster, but the computer had access to every eligible player.
      3. Injuries were turned on, with the Injury Rating setting used. This is the same setting that will be used during the regular season, but injuries cannot be accurately projected for any given season.
      4. Transactions for injuries, trades and waiver-wire pickups were not simulated. Injured players were replaced by players already on that team's roster, not from the waiver wire.
      5. Teams used the home parks they played in last year. (Brooklyn, Kentucky and Vatican City used Neutral Park.) Changing parks could have a significant impact on team scoring.
3. Conclusions
   
   1. Butch has too much free time on his hands.
   2. Of last year's six playoff teams, only Arkansas, Newark and Vancouver look like pre-season locks. Austin, Stanhope and Carolina have wildly fluctuating results that could see them in the cellar or in the post-season. Vatican City looks like a contender, as do Hoboken and Kentucky: At least one will reach the playoffs. Columbia and Philadelphia will claw toward .500. Brooklyn, Honolulu and Phoenix seem assured of excellent draft picks next year.

The Arkansas Golden Falcons have missed just one post-season in their storied history, and it looks like they'll reach the big dance again in 2001. Over the 10 simulated seasons, the Falcons miss the playoffs just once - in Season No. 5, when they tie Austin for the sixth-best record in the league and lose on a tiebreaker. They don't appear to be a juggernaut, with just two 100+ win seasons, but they are consistent, with the league's highest winning percentage (.596) and best runs differential (+428) over the 10 simulated seasons.

The Austin Outlaws were the only team to reach the playoffs every season. Owner Steven Zajac may have taken that unblemished record with him when he sold the franchise, as the post-season is no sure bet for the Outlaws in 2001. If they do reach the post-season, it'll be with pitching and defense: Austin allows the second-fewest runs in the league, but ranks 10th in runs scored. If new owner Eric Wickstrom can't find more firepower in this lineup, his squad could be clawing not for a playoff berth, but to remain above .500.

The numbers don't appear to add up for the Brooklyn Beancounters this season. The team shows just one playoff appearance over 10 simulated seasons, and drops 96+ games in four. On paper, the team's mediocre offense can't make up for the league's third-most runs allowed. Brooklyn appears to be headed to a top-5 draft pick in 2002

Talk about feast or famine: The Carolina Mudcats post the league's best record in Season No. 7, and the league's second-worst in Season No. 10. They're a playoff team in four seasons, and a bottom-five team in four seasons. But even winning just 70 games would be a huge improved for a Mudcat team that lost over 100 last year.

At least they're consistent. The Columbia Crusaders never finish higher than 11th, never win more than 75 games but never lose more than 96. You can't blame the pitching: No team scores fewer runs than the Crusaders. They score the fewest runs in the league in seven seasons. In no simulated season do the Crusaders, an original franchise, surpass their all-time winningest season, 73-77 (.487) in 1991.

Judging from the simulations, the Hoboken Cutters will be a .500 team in their inaugural season. They finish within one game of dead-even in five of the 10 seasons, and within 5 games of .500 in every season but two. The Cutters reach the playoffs twice, including an impressive 93 wins in No. 4. They'll have to do it with pitching: Only the Crusaders score fewer runs.

It could be a long season for fans of the Honolulu Sharks, who sneak into the playoffs just once, in the one season they manage to break .500. In no season do the Sharks score more runs than they allow, and to quote Dan Dierdorff, "You don't win many games giving up more points than you score.

The Kentucky Hillbillies shocked many in 2000 when they turned the moribund Toledo Mutthens into a playoff team. Although summarily swept by the Iron Fist in the first round of the playoffs, Kentucky fans were looking forward to taking their cousins/wives to another October classic. But this year might be a step back for the franchise, which squeaks into the playoffs just once and never climbs more than 3 games above .500. But aside from a few disastrous seasons (No. 2 and No. 7), the Hillbillies are always competitive and they could edge closer to contention with an improved starting rotation.

Not that I'm biased, but the Newark Sugar Bears look like they will again cruise to another post-season appearance - but can they survive the first round? The Sugar Bears recorded the two best seasons simulated (107-55, 104-58), reached the playoffs every year and were the only team to score 1,000 runs or more in each simulation.

The Philadelphia Endzone Animals are trying to change their luck with a new name. The simulations look promising - for a team that's never won more than 72 games in a season. Despite their much-improved rotation, the Animals gave up the second-most runs in the league, and all those runs added up to just one playoff appearance and one winning record - and not in the same season.

The Phoenix Dragons will certainly be the most entertaining team to watch this season. They score the most runs in the league - and give up the most, to the tune of 500 runs more than the next-worst pitching staff! No other team allowed more than 1,101 runs in a single season; the Dragons allowed more than 1,207 runs in every season. Phoenix records 7 of the worst 10 simulated seasons, going 69-93 in their "best" season. It may be time for the Dragons to abandon Coors Field as their home turf.

Going out on top, the World Champion Jerusalem Rabbis retired to make way for Matthew's Mighty Men of Stanhope. The simulations vary wildly from season to season, and it may take some divine intervention to predict just where the Mighty Men will make their debut in the standings. Season No. 6 resulted in 100+ wins, but two seasons had losing records, and the team allowed more runs than it scored in four.

The Vancouver Iron Fist seem predestined for the post-season every year. Judging from the standings, 2001 will be no different. The Iron Fist joined the Sugar Bears as the only squads to break triple-digits in three simulated seasons. Vancouver has the stingiest defense in the league, with the fewest runs allowed of any team and holding opposing offenses to fewer than 800 runs in three seasons - a feat only matched by the Outlaws.

Of the four cities to join the league this year, the newly christened Vatican City Cardinals could be the most competitive. The league's second-best offense led the way to playoff appearances in seven simulations, with four seasons of 92+ wins and just one losing record.

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