2008 Diamond Mind Baseball League Predictions

March 25, 2008

1. Purpose
   To simulate 10 Diamond Mind Baseball seasons to observe the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams.


2. Methodology
   Using the Opening Day rosters, 10 full seasons were simulated, using computer manager-selected lineups and pitching rotations.
   1. Accuracy Limitations
      1. The computer picked the lineups, starting rotations and bullpen assignments for every team. The computer tends to favor players with lots of at-bats and innings pitched, even if another player compiled better statistics in limited duty; human owners tend to do the opposite. Also, the computer doesn't change lineups or pitching charts except for injuries.
      2. The owners will be limited to a 25-man active roster, but the computer had access to every eligible player on the 30-man roster. (In previous years, I used the 40-man roster, but this gave a huge advantage to any team that drafted lots of players they would subsequently have to cut anyway.)
      3. Injuries were turned off. (In previous years, I left the Injury Rating on, but since the computer can't pick up replacement players, it gave an advantage to teams with large rosters, as noted above. So this is assuming all your players remain healthy.)
      4. In addition, the computer can't guess as to what players will be benched, called up, signed as free agents, traded, etc. 
      5. Each team has been assigned to "Neutral Park." The use of different parks during the season could affect team scoring. (I didn't have the park data when I ran the sims. Since everyone will be "locked in" to their current park next season, I will be able to use the actual parks next year.)
   2. A question for fans of the sims: Is it possible that, with 30-man rosters and the actual parks, the results could be "too accurate"? Maybe neutral parks, 40-man rosters and injuries were a better idea? Or should we put an end to these sims altogether?
      
   
   
3. Past Performance
   
   1. The simulations have been done for the past seven seasons. 
   2. What they got right: Last year, the sims went 5-for-6 in terms of the top six and 5-for-6 for the bottom six. As for the other four teams, all picked to be around the middle of the pack, one reached the post-season by beating two of the others in one-game playoffs after the league's first-ever three-way tie for 6th place, while the fourth wasn't eliminated from contention until the final week of the season.
   1. The sims correctly picked five of the six playoff teams (Newark Sugar Bears, Philadelphia Endzone Animals, Marietta Mighty Men, Honolulu Sharks and the D.C. Bushslappers), though in the wrong order, and wildly wrong in terms of guessing won-loss records.
   • The sims correctly picked D.C. and Honolulu to reach the post-season, even though each had lost more than 100 games the year before.
   • The sims also correctly predicted that Newark and Philly would win their divisions, and that Marietta would be the top wildcard seed.
     
   2. The sims accurately predicted the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen, Carolina Mudcats, Arkansas Golden Falcons and Vancouver Iron Fist would be in the mix for the post-season around the middle of the pack. They also were much more accurate in terms of won-loss records for these bubble teams.
   • The four teams all finished within a game of each other, and within two games of the post-season.
   3. The sims also correctly predicted three of the four worst teams -- Las Vegas Rat Pack, Sardine City Straphangers and New Jersey Team Buddah.
   • The sims correctly picked Las Vegas, a team coming off an 87-win playoff appearance, would be the worst team in baseball in 2007. 
   4. The sims got one W-L record exactly right -- Las Vegas's 52-110 mark. They came within 2 wins for Arkansas, Carolina and Vancouver, and 3 wins for Hillsborough and Honolulu.
      
   3. What they got wrong: The computer badly whiffed on one post-season team.
   1. Last year's sims gave the Hoboken Cutters no shot at reaching the post-season. In 10 sims, Hoboken averaged just 68 wins; their best performance was a 9th place 79-83 finish; they also finished 10th in one sim. Other than that, they were in the bottom three each time. Yet in the DMBL, the Cutters went 86-76, tying for the league's fourth-best record.
   • However, it should be noted that the Cutters reached the post-season despite a -13 run margin. If the Pythagorean Wins Formula picked the post-season, it would be Hillsborough, not Hoboken, making the big dance last year. The sims predicted Hillsborough would be the league's 6th-best team.
   2. The computer also badly missed on the won-loss records for the top teams. Newark won 17 more games than the sims predicted, while Philly won 10 more games than the sims thought they would. Marietta won 5 less games than the sims predicted, and D.C. won 11 fewer games. The biggest swing of all went to the Cutters, who won 18 more games than the sims expected, going 86-76 instead of 68-94., predicting a "changing of the guard" at the top of the divisions with Carolina and Las Vegas posting the league's best records, while the Ironfist and Sugar Bears would have to battle it out for wildcard slots. Instead, the Vancouver finished 4 wins ahead of Carolina to take the Morris Division title, while Newark rolled to the fourth-most wins in league history, 24 games ahead of the Rat Pack, for their league-record sixth-straight Hanover Division title.
   • The Cutters were the biggest overachievers, winning 18 more games than the sims expected -- they went 86-76 instead of the predicted 68-94. The Sugar Bears (+17) and Endzone Animals (+10), both predicted to be division winners, were nevertheless even better than expected.
   • The biggest underachievers were the Straphangers, who finished 14 wins worse than expected. But it didn't matter much -- the sims thought Sardine City would go 72-90 and finish in 12th; instead they went 58-104 and finished in 13th. Another big underachiever were the Bushslappers, who finished 11 games worse than their predicted record of 92-70. In fact, the sims had D.C. comfortably in the post-season in every sim; instead, they snuck in with an 81-81 record, just 1 game ahead of the Falcons and 2 games and of three other teams. South Boston and New Jersey were each 6 wins worse than the sims expected, while Marietta were 5 wins worse.
     
   3. Previous sim results: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. 


4. This Year's Conclusions
   
   1. The sims see a lot of volatility in 2008, with four teams consistently at the top, one consistently at the bottom, and a battle royale for the two remaining playoff spots. In this election year, it's looking like a battle between the haves, the have-nots and everybody else.
   1. The Fabulously Rich: The computer predicts four teams are locks for the post-season, reaching the big dance in all 10 sims.
   • The sims also predicts one team is a lock for its first-ever division title -- and also for the Ian Rintel Award as the most improved team.
     
   2. The Astonishingly Poor: One team finishes last in nine of the 10 sims, and in that other sim, they finish tied for last. The sims predict they'll have one of the worst turn-arounds in league history, losing 35 more games than they did as a playoff team last year.
   • Only two other teams never make a post-season appearance in any of the 10 sims, but each comes close a couple times.
     
   3. The Struggling Middle-Class: The seven other teams each make the post-season at least once -- but the battle is so fierce, there actually are two separate sims where two teams finish in a tie for 6th, which would force a one-game play-off. (That wasn't simulated.)
   • There are several seasons where the 6th seed posts a .500 record -- or worse!
     
   • The sims definitely seem to think one division is much better than the other. Every Morris team has at least one post-season appearance, while Hanover has two teams that make it every year, one bubble team that gets in twice and has a 6th place tie, and a third team that sneaks in once.
   • To put it another way: The Morris Division has three teams with losing records, and nobody losing 90 games; the Hanover Division has five teams with losing records, and four teams losing 90 or more games.
     

ARKANSAS GOLDEN FALCONS
prediction: 77-85 (8th), 794 rf (5th), 853 ra (12th), -59 margin (9th)
If you just glance at the bottom line, it appears the sims are predicting a second straight year that the Golden Falcons will get an early jump on fall migration and miss the playoffs. But take a closer look. Not only do they reach the post-season in two out of the 10 sims, but five other times they finish just on the bubble in 8th place. After coming up just one win short of the playoffs last year, does anyone really think that Mike "Stump" Matiash won't be able to get his team over the top in September if they're within spitting distance of the final post-season berth? For the most part, this is an extremely consistent team - their offense ranks 4th, 5th or 6th in eight of the 10 sims, but their defense is in the bottom four in nine out of 10. In the one sim the offense doesn't show up (Sim 5), the team drops 105 games and finishes tied for the league's worst record; in the one sim that the pitching staff is even mediocre (Sim 10), they roar into the post-season with a tie for the league's third-best record. Barring one of those two unusual outcomes, it appears the Falcons will be a bubble team for a third straight year. Will they sneak in, as in 2006, or come up just short, like last year? Despite what the sims predict, I think another near-miss seems unlikely -- with veterans Barry Bonds and Curt Schilling possibly in their final seasons, Stump will have to decide at the trade deadline if he's a buyer or a seller, a decision that would skew the final results significantly.

BLUE RIDGE BOMBERS
prediction: 78-84 (7th), 727 rf (10th), 760 ra (8th), -34 diff (7th)
The sims don't think Tom Zagenczyk will struggle with the DMBL's learning curve, predicting the new owner will fly the Bombers very close to the playoffs in their inaugural season. Those are somewhat lofty expectations considering he built his team from the remnants of the South Boston Gang, which went 72-90 last year and didn't do much in the way of rebuilding. Perhaps most impressively for a first-year franchise, the sims don't forecast a year where Blue Ridge gets embarrassed; in their worst years (Sim 2, Sim 9), they lose 92 games, hardly a disaster considering the track record of most new teams. And they have four sims where they win at least 80 games, including a 93 win season (Sim 8) where they cruise into the playoffs as the No. 4 seed. They also tie for the 6th seed in Sim 6. They just miss in two other seasons - Sim 1, where they're 2 games out, and Sim 4, where they finish just 1 game out of the post-season despite a 78-84 record. (Sim 10 has them winning 80 games, but finishing in 9th place, 7 games out of the post-season.) The sims expect the Bombers to have a weak offense, finishing in the bottom 5 six times, and a mediocre pitching staff, finishing 7th, 8th or 9th seven times. The team does best when the offense is mediocre (Sim 1, 6, 10) or when the pitching staff is surprisingly good (Sim 8, when they tie for second-fewest runs allowed). We'll see how high these first-year Bombers can fly.

CAROLINA MUDCATS
prediction: 75-87 (10th), 678 rf (12th), 721 ra (4th), -43 margin (8th)
The sims don't quite know what to make of the Mudcats in 2008. In two sims they make the post-season (Sim 4 and 5) and just miss in two others (one game out in Sim 2, three games out in Sim 3). But Chris Pucci's fish flop in the other six sims, including four appearances among the bottom three teams (Sims 1, 7, 8 and 9). It all averages out to the league's 10th-best record, the same finish they had last year. So what's the story? It all comes down to the pitching. Overall, the Mudcats average out to the fourth-fewest runs allowed (721), including the league's stingiest defense in Sim 5 (668 runs allowed); they give up the second-fewest runs in Sim 4 (680) and Sim 10 (682), and fourth-fewest in Sim 2 (725). But any time they rank 5th or worst, they don't have a winning record. Obviously the problem is an offense that ranks 12th overall (678 runs for), including two last-place finishes (Sims 1 and 6) and two second-worst finishes (Sims 4 and 9). We'll see if the Mudcats can keep their bats from getting waterlogged and pitch their way to their second post-season appearance in three years.

D.C. BUSHSLAPPERS
prediction: 81-81 (6th), 722 rf (11th), 728 ra (5th), -6 margin (6th)
Last year, the sims predicted the Bushslappers would win 92 games and cruise into the post-season with the league's fourth-best record. Instead, they went 81-81 and barely beating out four teams to hang onto the final playoff spot. Maybe the sims are operating on a one-year delay, because now they're predicting the team will stumble into the playoffs with a .500 record, just ahead of four other teams. Does that mean last year's prediction of 92 wins will come true this year? Jamie Landsman sure hopes so! But out of all the bubble teams, the sims give the Bushslappers the best chance of making the post-season: They make as a wild card team four times (Sims 1, 3, 6 and 7), tie for the final berth once (Sim 10), just miss as the 7th place team three times (Sim 5, 8 and 9), and have one year where they finish 4 games out (Sim 4). That leaves just one year where they're not a factor in the playoff race -- Sim 2, when they lose 93 games and post the league's second-worst record. But even that year, Pythagoras says they should have won about 7 more games in that sim -- still bad, but a little more respectable. (On the other hand, Pythagoras thinks their 87-75 record in Sim 10 is a complete fluke, estimating they're more like a 76-86 team -- the 11-win difference makes them the luckiest team in any sim.) Just like last year, the Bushslappers are a pitching-centric team that hopes to win a lot of close games thanks to their lights-out bullpen. The offense ranks 11th (722 runs allowed); they manage to finish as high as 6th once (Sim 5), but that's due to the scoring being down throughout the league in that sim rather than an offensive outburst by the Slappers. The key to victory, obviously, is pitching, which ranks 5th overall and is pretty consistent, ranking 6th or better in eight of the 10 sims. The Bushies will hope to slap together just enough offense to make the playoffs for a second straight year. 

TEAM	YR	W	L	PCT.	#	RF	RA	MGN	PYTH	PW	PL	DIF
D.C.	1	83	79	0.512	5 T	729	712	+ 17	0.512	83	79	0
D.C.	2	69	93	0.426	13th	698	738	- 40	0.472	76	86	- 7
D.C.	3	81	81	0.500	6th	719	697	+ 22	0.516	84	78	- 3
D.C.	4	75	87	0.463	9 T	696	757	- 61	0.458	74	88	+ 1
D.C.	5	83	79	0.512	7th	745	774	- 29	0.481	78	84	+ 5
D.C.	6	87	75	0.537	5th	712	678	+ 34	0.524	85	77	+ 2
D.C.	7	86	76	0.531	5th	743	707	+ 36	0.525	85	77	+ 1
D.C.	8	81	81	0.500	7th	749	744	+  5	0.503	82	80	- 1
D.C.	9	79	83	0.488	7th	706	708	- 2	0.499	81	81	- 2
D.C.	10	87	75	0.537	5 T	727	769	- 42	0.472	76	86	+11
D.C.	TOT	81	81	0.500	6th	722	728	- 6	0.496	80	82	+1

HILLSBOROUGH HIRED HITMEN
prediction: 83-79 (5th), 762 rf (6th), 750 ra (7th), +11 margin (5th)
For the third straight year, the sims think the Hired Hitmen are poised for owner Brent Campbell's first post-season appearance since he rejoined the league in 2005. Each year since he's come back to the DMBL, the sims have predicted his team would be within a game or two of .500, likely just good enough to sneak into the playoffs. The sims whiffed badly in 2005, with the Hitmen winning just 63 games. But the last two years the sims were close to Hillsborough's actual won-loss record; the problem was each time the Hitmen finished in 7th place, on the wrong side of the bubble. Will they finally return to the big dance in 2008? The sims see the Hitmen as a solidly mediocre team (6th in offense, 7th in defense), which more often than not is good enough to make it. The Hitmen make it in six of the 10 sims, including four times as a No. 4 seed; they also tie for the final playoff berth in Sim 6, and finish just 2 games out of another tie in Sim 10. That leaves just two sims when they're not in the mix at all - Sim 7, when they tie for 10th, and Sim 8, when they're in 11th. Those two sims, plus Sim 4 (when they reach the playoffs despite having an 80-82 record) and Sim 6 (when they tie for 6th, but Pythagoras says they should have been 3 games out) are when they have negative run-differentials. It would appear the Hitmen prove the old Dan Dierdorff adage that in order to win, you can't give up more runs than you score.

HOBOKEN CUTTERS
prediction: 76-86 (9th), 754 rf (7th), 822 ra (11th), -67 margin (11th)
The sims didn't like the Cutters last year, saying they'd lose 94 games and finish with the league's second-worst record. But Mark Hrywna had the last laugh as the Cutters won 86 games to reach the post season for the first time since 2002.  He'll have to hope for a repeat in '08 as the sims say the Cutters will be about 10 games under .500, and more often than not won't factor into the playoff race. The Cutters' offense is ridiculously average - they finish 5th once (Sim 3), 9th once (Sim 2), and every other Sim either 6th, 7th or 8th. They never score more than 784 runs (Sim 8) or less than 729 (Sims 5 and 8). It all averages out, appropriately enough, to a dead-center 7th place (754 rf). So it all comes down the pitching staff. When the Cutter pitchers are bad, which is often (they finish in the bottom 5 teams in seven of the 10 sims), they finish below .500 and well out of the race. In the other three sims, they're a playoff team (including a tie for 6th in Sim 10). And it's not like those sims have brilliant pitching performances - they're 8th in Sim 2 and Sim 8, and 7th in Sim 10. It appears that, with their offense so consistent, all it will take is a little more effort on defense. Is it time to bring in Lawrence Taylor as a motivational speaker?

LAS VEGAS RAT PACK
prediction: 105-57 (1st), 926 rf (1st), 673 ra (1st), +254 margin (1st)
The sims predicted last year in no uncertain terms that the Rat Pack would easily lose be the worst team in the league and lose 110 games. The sims were dead-on balls accurate as the Rats lost exactly 110 games and finished with the league's worst record. Owner Eric Wickstrom hopes the sims are as accurate this year, as the sims absolutely love the Pack's chances. The Rats not only reach the post-season in every sim, they also win the Hanover Division each time. In the 10 sims, they have the best record seven times, the second-best record twice and the third-best record once. They have the best run-differential six times and second-best four times. Their offense never ranks below 3rd; they score the most runs in baseball in four of the 10 sims. And their pitching staff is just as good -- they give up the fewest runs seven times. Overall, they finish first in runs scored (926), first in runs allowed (673) and first in run-differential (254). In their "worst" season they win 97 games; in their best, 111 (twice). They're the only team in any sim to win 111 games; of the top six performances by teams in the sims, Vegas has five of them. They also are the only team to crack the 1,000-run plateau in any sim, and they do it twice (Sims 1 and 3); they're the only team to allow less than 650 runs, and they do it three times (Sims 1, 7 and 9); and they're the only team to have a run margin better than 300, and they do it twice (Sim 1 and 3). In fact, in Sim 1, they score 393 more runs than they allow, which would be the second-best run differential of all time. Whether you go by predicted wins, division titles or run margin, it's the most thorough domination of any team in the seven years we've been doing the sims! The only team to come close were the 2002 Arkansas Golden Falcons; the sims predicted they'd win 104 games with a +238 run differential. (They won a league-record 120 games and posted a +332 run margin, but lost to Newark in the World Series.) Can the Rats be that good - or even better - in 2008? We'll see if their competition this year comes from another team... or the record books.

MATTHEW'S MIGHTY MEN OF MARIETTA
prediction: 58-104 (14th), 661 rf (13th), 877 ra (14th), -216 margin (14th)
The sims predicted the Mighty Men would be the league's second-best team last year, and they were right - if you include the post-season. The Mites won 93 games to claim the top wildcard seed, then rolled over the Bushslappers and Morris Division champion Endzone Animals to take the three-time defending Sugar Bears all the way to a sixth game. However, it looks like last year's playoff run may be the last joy in Marietta for at least one season. Owner David Landsman went into this season fully committed to rebuilding: He punted on this year by dealing away a number of veteran stars, and built for next year by hoarding picks for the '09 draft and acquiring as many young playeras as possible. We don't know how the rebuilding effort will turn out, but the sims are confident in Landsman's ability to give up on this year. The sims coughed up a nearly perfect run for the Mighty Men: They finished last in each season except for Sim 5 - when they tied for last. They also had the worst run-differential in each season, again except for Sim 5, when they were second-to-last. Of the five worst seasons in the sim, four, including the worst year (Sim 7), are turned in by the Mighty Men. Overall, their offense scored the second-fewest runs (661), their pitching staff gave up the most runs (877), and they finished last in run margin (-216). Their offense scored at least 700 runs just once (Sim 6), and finished in the bottom three eight times (11th in Sim 6 and 9). Their defense gave up at least 800 runs in each sim and finished last five times; their best effort was Sim 8, when they finished 11th with 805 runs allowed. They lost 100 or more games in each sim, their best performance being a 61-101 mark in Sim 1. The bottom line? It appears very likely that the Mighty Men will have another resource when it comes to rebuilding - the most balls in the draft lottery.

NEW JERSEY TEAM BUDDAHS
prediction: 70-92 (13th), 630 rf (14th), 746 ra (6th), -117 margin (tied for 12th)
The sims predict the Buddahs won't find enlightenment in 2008. In fact, New Jersey may be even worse than their record indicates: Pythagoras says they're the league's luckiest team, averaging 3 more wins than they "should" have won according to their run margin. Even getting some lucky breaks, Jersey is one of three teams to fail to make the playoffs or post a winning record in all 10 sims. They come closest in Sim 7, finishing 3 games out of the playoffs after going 78-84. Other than that, they're a non-factor when it comes to the post-season; they finish as the second- or third-worst team four times, and in the bottom 5 seven times. They have two 8th place finishes (Sims 5 and 7) and tie for 9th once (Sim 8). They never post a positive run differential, and only finish outside the bottom 5 in run margin twice (Sim 5, when they're 8th, and Sim 6, when they're 9th). The pitching staff isn't all that bad, actually; they're 6th overall in fewest runs allowed (746), including four years where they rank 5th or better in runs allowed. At their best - Sims 5 and 7 - they're the second-best defense, allowing less than 700 runs. They only have one truly awful pitching performance, Sim 10, when they give up a second-most 820 runs. The problem, obviously, is an offense that ranks last or second-to-last in all 10 sims. The Buddahs never score as many as 700 runs in a season, and in fact fail to score 600 runs in that disasterous Sim 10 (when they post an outrageously awful -247 run margin - but Marietta is still worse!) They're 14th in runs scored in seven sims and 13th in three others. It would take a Hall of Fame pitching staff to do anything with so little offense. The Buddahs will hope to find nirvana - or at least some more hitters - in 2009.

NEWARK SUGAR BEARS
prediction: 92-70 (4th), 889 rf (3rd), 761 ra (9th), +128 margin (4th)
The sims predict, for the first time in seven years, Butch Garretson's Sugar Bears will not win the Hanover Division. But the Crunch With Punch will not be going quietly into that good night. Though the sims are confident Newark will finish well behind Las Vegas in the division standings, they also foresee the Sugar Bears' streak of consecutive playoff appearances will continue for a 13th season. Newark reaches the big dance in all 10 sims, claiming the top wildcard seed three times; they also make it as a No. 4 seed four times and as the fifth-best team three times. Newark, as usual, uses its powerful lineup to compensate for a mediocre pitching staff: The Sugar Bears finish in the top 4 in offense in every sim, including two seasons (Sims 5 and 7) as the league's top offense; overall, they score a third-best 889 runs. The pitching, however, is all over the place; they're in the top 5 four times but also in the bottom 5 three times. Overall, it averages out to a ninth-best 761 runs allowed. The offense is more than good enough to carry the defense; they never finish lower than the fourth-best run margin, and post the best mark in the league in Sim 7 at +198 (but have one of the unluckiest years of any team in any sim, going a fourth-best 91-71 when Pythagoras said they should have been a second-best 101-61). Assuming the Sugar Bears play up to the sims' expectations, the question will be whether Newark - after enjoying first-round byes for the last seven years - can survive a five-game series.

PHILADELPHIA ENDZONE ANIMALS
prediction: 96-66 (3rd), 855 rf (4th), 711 ra (3rd), +1 margin (3rd)
Unlike the Hanover Division - where Las Vegas won every time - the sims see a struggle in the Morris between the 2007 division champion Endzone Animals and the 2006 division champion Iron Fist. Anthony "Bocci" Pucci's team comes out on top three times, while the Iron Fist win six; they tie for the division crown once. In addition, the Endzone Animals also join the Iron Fist and Rat Pack as the only team to finish with the best record, and they do it twice (Sims 7 and 8).  But even in the four sims where they don't win or tie for the division, they're in the post-season anyway, claiming the 3rd-best record three times, tying for the third-best record once, finishing 5th once and tying for 5th once. The Animals are a fairly balanced team, finishing 4th in runs scored (855) and 3rd in runs allowed (711), for a 3rd-best +144 run differential. In half the sims, they score the 4th-most runs and allow the 3rd-fewest runs. But in the other five sims, the results can vary wildly - they lead the league in scoring twice (Sims 2 and 8), but finish 7th once (Sim 3); they lead the league in runs allowed once (Sim 8) but also as low as 9th once (Sim 1). That can produce some big swings in run differential, from a sixth-best +14 in Sim 3 to a league-best +217 in Sim 8. But even when they're at their worst, they still rank among the best teams in the league. The sims are sure the Endzone Animals will fly to the post-season again this year.

SARDINE CITY STRAPHANGERS
prediction: 71-91 (12th), 737 rf (9th), 854 ra (13th), -117 margin (12T)
New year, same results for the Straphangers, from the sims' point of view. Last year, the sims predicted the Straphangers would finish 12th with a 72-90 record, 749 runs scored, 882 runs allowed and a -133 run margin; this year, the sims say they'll finish 12th with a 71-91 record, 737 runs scored, 854 runs allowed and a -117 run margin. But the sims got it wrong last year, as the Hangmen actually won just 58 games and finished 13th. Maybe the 14-game swing will go the other way this time, which would put co-owners Greg and Chris Calvosa in the thick of the playoff race. That's not as far-fetched as you might think; Sardine City finishes 5 games out in Sims 2 and 9, 4 games out in Sim 4, and just 2 games out in Sim 7. But in the other six sims, the Straps get slapped, including two years - Sims 3 and 8 - where they lose 100 games and post the league's second-worst record. The pitching staff is the primary culprit, as they allow the second-most runs of any team (854); they give up the most runs once (Sim 1), the second-most four times, and never finish better than 10th (Sim 9). But say one thing for the pitching, it's consistent. The offense, on the other hand, is very unpredictable - finishing 5th three times (Sims 2, 4 and 7) but also 12th twice. In fact, there's nearly a 200-run difference between their best offensive season (847 RF in Sim 2) and their worst offensive season (666 RF in Sim 8). Those fluctuations show up in the run differential; they finish 7th, 8th and 9th in three sims, but 13th in four others. If enough of the batters can put together above-average years, this team just might be playing meaningful games in September.

TAMPA BAY PLUNKERS
prediction: 72-90 (11th), 746 rf (8th), 809 ra (10th), -63 margin (10th)
The computer would bet on either of this year's new squads to be more competitive than the two new teams from last year. The Blue Ridge Bombers and Tampa Bay Plunkers combine for three playoff appearances and three 7th place finishes; New Jersey and Sardine City combine for no playoff appearances and just one 7th place showing. (Of course, the two teams this year's new squads are built on - Honolulu and South Boston - had a lot more talent than what was available from Phoenix and Westwood.) The sims like Blue Ridge a little better than Tom Zagenczyk's squad, but still see the potential for a playoff run. The Plunkers combine a good-to-fair offense (8th place) with a fair-to-poor pitching staff (10th place) - the trick is getting both ends to live up to their maximum potential in the same season. When that happens, as in Sims 3, 4 and 9, the Plunkers are in the post-season mix; when one of the two doesn't show up, as in Sims 6, 7 and 10, they sink toward the bottom. The Plunkers never manage to post a winning record, but the one time they go .500 (Sim 9) they reach the post-season; they come close in Sim 3 as the seventh-best team, and in Sim 4 they finish just 4 games out of the final playoff berth. The offense is usually respectable, including two sixth-place finishes (Sims 3 and 8), though they fall into the bottom 5 in Sims 5, 7 and 10. They never score less than 700 runs, but don't reach the 800-run plateau either. The pitching staff is usually more of a problem; there's one 7th place finish (Sim 5) and two 9th place showings (Sims 3 and 7), but in the other seven sims the defense ranks among the bottom 5 teams. In terms of run margin, the highlights are Sims 5 and 9, both 7th-place finishes. It would take a little luck, but it is possible there will be post-season baseball in Tampa Bay this season.

VANCOUVER IRON FIST
prediction: 100-62 (2nd), 892 rf (2nd), 709 ra (2nd), +183 margin (2nd)
The sims are very impressed with the Iron Fist, who came up just 2 games short in their quest for a third straight post-season appearance last year. Owner Yaro Zajac is hoping to start a new streak this year, as his Iron Fist were one of just four teams to reach the post-season in all 10 sims. They made it as the No. 1 seed in Sim 5, as the No. 2 seed six times, as the No. 3 once, as the No. 4 once, and once as either the second seed or the third seed depending on how a one-game playoff for the division title would have turned out in Sim 6. The Iron Fist are a very balanced, consistent team, always ranking in the top 4 in offense and in run differential; the pitching staff is a little more erratic; they give up the fewest runs in Sim 2 (697 RA), but fall all the way to 8th in Sim 6 (776 RA). But they're in the top 6 in every other sim. Overall, the offense ranks 2nd, the defense ranks 2nd, and the run margin ranks 2nd, so who can expect anything other than a 2nd-place finish?