March 4, 2002  

Pythagorean Results

I'm sure you all remember from high school, the old Pythagorean Theorem for triangles...ok, so maybe it's only a vague notion in your head, but basically it said that the sum of the squares of the two sides of a triangle equals the square of the hypotenuse. "But, Cecil, what does this have to do with baseball?" I hear you, just listen. Well, there are many who have applied this theory to calculate expected wins and losses for a baseball team. The Pythogorean Method in baseball is calculated by added the runs for, squared, and then dividing it among runs against, squared, plus runs for, squared. This give you the expected winning percentage. Let's see how accurate it has been.

We can apply the method to last year's stats.

			Expected			Actual
2001	RF	RA	PCT	W	L	PCT	W	L	+/-
ARK	928	822	0.560	91	71	0.525	85	77	-6
BRK	756	800	0.472	76	86	0.481	78	84	+2
CAR	793	811	0.489	79	83	0.506	82	80	+3
COL	754	803	0.469	76	86	0.463	75	87	-1
HAR	831	846	0.491	80	82	0.481	78	84	-2
HBK	805	904	0.442	72	90	0.469	76	86	+4
HON	921	1021	0.449	73	89	0.432	70	92	-3
KEN	843	927	0.453	73	89	0.481	78	84	+5
NWK	1059	804	0.634	103	59	0.623	101	61	-2
PHI	822	1012	0.398	64	98	0.389	63	99	-1
PHX	941	960	0.490	79	83	0.481	78	84	-1
STP	846	820	0.516	84	78	0.531	86	76	2
VAN	976	819	0.587	95	67	0.586	95	67	0
VAT	1049	975	0.537	87	75	0.549	89	73	2

We can see who the overachievers and underachievers were last year. Clearly, the Arkansas Falcons were the biggest underachievers. They finished six games behind their expected win total. A 91-71 record would have propelled the Falcons past the Vatican City Cardinals for the top wild card seed last season. Who was the biggest overachiever? Kentucky won five more games than Pythagorus gave them credit for. Hoboken was second with a +4 showing.

Now before you go applying the method to spring training results, keep in mind that most players on these teams won't even be on the active rosters come opening day. Applying the results to Butch's Sims results are probably more useful, but the Law of Averages keeps those results from fluctuating much, given the enormous sample size. The biggest overachiever in Butch's results was Brooklyn, with a +4 difference between simulated and expected results. Vancouver underachieved the most with a -3 difference. Everyone else fell within two wins of the expected results.

What does it all mean? Well, sometimes it's more important to look at runs for and runs against in determining the chances that a team has to continue. Early on in the season, it's hard to tell because one blowout game can skew the results badly. Lefty Gomez once said "I'd rather be lucky than good", but if you constantly rely on luck, eventually she'll run out on you.

Cecil Fielder was the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991. Since then he's enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams. He is now retired and serves as the color man for the Columbia Rattlesnakes radio team. Click Here for past articles.