Preview: The Wild Card Round

The games 1, 2 and 5 -- if necessary -- will be home games for the higher seeded team in this best-of-5 series. Injuries are turned off for the playoffs, meaning a player can be injured only for that particular game, but can return for the next game. Pitching rotations are on a four-man skip rotation, meaning the fourth starter will be skipped if the first starter is ready to pitch. Since there are off days off games 2 and 4, some game 1 starters will be available in game 4 on three days' rest.

The top seed to survive this round will take on the No. 2 seed, the Morris Division champion Vancouver Ironfist; the lower-seeded survivor faces the Hanover Division winner, the top-seeded Newark Sugar Bears.

Cats Meet Birds

Carolina Mudcats (#3, 92-70) vs. Arkansas Golden Falcons (#6, 86-78)

Arkansas Golden FalconsWas there ever a year where the Carolina MudcatsNo. 3 team could be considered the underdog? The Arkansas Golden Falcons may have snuck into the post-season by way of two one-game playoffs, but they've also been to the World Series for the past four seasons. The 'Cats have plenty of post-season experience as well, but it's hard to believe they weren't rooting for the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen, Hoboken Cutters or Philadelphia Endzone Animals to win the final playoff berth so they could avoid playing the Falcs in the first round. They've only faced each other in the post-season once before, with the top-ranked Golden Falcons sweeping the fifth-seeded Mudcats in Round 2 of the '99 playoffs. But Carolina did edge Arkansas in head-to-head play this season, 7 games to 6.

This year certainly doesn't rank with their 120-win season in 2002, but no matter how they did it, Mike "Stump" Matiash's Golden Falcons are in the post-season for a league record 14th straight year. Believe it or not, this is the first year they've made it as the No. 6 seed, and it's the first time since 2001 that they didn't earn a first-round bye as the Morris Division champions. The Golden Falcons are a phenomenal 5-1 in first-round match-ups, which doesn't include the six times they cruised into the second round via the bye. Their only first round loss came when they were the No. 4 seed, way back in '97, when they were swept by the fifth-ranked Austin Outlaws. The Falcons were a very balanced team this year, tying for 5th in runs scored (768) and ranking 4th in runs allowed (768) for a fifth-best  +79 run differential.

After a one-year hiatus, Chris Pucci's Mudcats are back to the post-season for the third time in four years, and the fifth time in their 10-year history. The 'Cats are 3-1 in first round play, but their last appearance in 2004 -- when they also were the #3 seed -- resulted in a three-game sweep. They've never survived the second round, and in fact their three second-round losses includes two sweeps. In their previous playoff appearances, the Mudcats always had a terrific starting rotation, but were usually hampered by their offense. But this year, the 'Cats have claws: Their offense tied with the Golden Falcons for 5th-most runs (847 runs scored). The pitching staff also finished close to Arkansas, just behind them in 5th place (778 runs allowed). Their +69 run differential ranks 6th.

The Mudcats' revamped offense is sparked by two exciting rookie outfielders -- Grady Sizemore (.312, .880 OPS, 19 HR, 67 RBI, 11 SB) Grady Sizemoreand Jeff Francouer (.323, 1.052 OPS, 17 HR, 42 R in 195 AB). But the core of the offense were with the squad during their previous playoff runs, including OF Jim Edmonds (.214, .732 OPS, 27 HR, 76 RBI), DH Travis Hafner (.313, 1.031 OPS, 35 HR, 84 RBI), OF Aubrey Huff (.345, 6 HR, 18 RBI in 29 AB), 1B Paul Konerko (.250, .781 OPS, 28 HR, 80 RBI), 3B Aramis Ramirez (.265, .787 OPS, 33 HR, 103 RBI), 1B Richie Sexson (.299, 14 HR, 42 RBI in 184 AB) and OF Randy Winn (.296, .831 OPS, 22 HR, 82 R, 11 SB). Returning for their second year with the 'Cats are 2B Bill Hall (.250, .665 OPS, 44 2B, 86 R), C Toby Hall (.257, .612 OPS, 6 HR, 61 RBI), SS Felipe Lopez (.276, .783 OPS, 19 HR, 83 RBI) and C Jason LaRue (.190, 1 HR, 6 RBI in 63 AB). In fact, other than Sizemore and Francouer, the only other newcomer is OF Kevin Mench (.266, 14 HR, 34 RBI in 173 AB), who usually starts only against lefties.

The Falcons, on the other hand, are missing three key batters from the post-season teams past: Barry Bonds, whom the team hopes to get back next season; Barry Larkin, who retired (but remains with the team as third base coach); and Larry Walker, who left the Falcs to play out his final season in his adopted home city of Hoboken. Without Barry, Barry and Larry, the senior men on offense are 39-year-old Kenny LoftonKenny Lofton (.283, .676 OPS, 62 R, 26 SB), in his seventh season with Arkansas ('98-'00, '03-present), and 30-year-old Lance Berkman (.262, .818 OPS, 27 HR, 99 RBI), who has been with Arkansas since 2001. The rest of the team are virtually all in their first or second year in Arkansas, including sophomore David Wright (.299, .911 OPS, 47 2B, 32 HR, 113 R, 117 RBI), who leads the team in almost every offensive category. Also back for a second year are OF David DeJesus (.312, .854 OPS, 31 2B, 82 R, 5 SB); C Javier Valentin (.279, .898 OPS, 27 HR, 78 RBI); 3B Adrian Beltre (.255, 4 HR, 11 RBI in 55 AB); 1B Rafael Palmeiro (.243, 17 HR, 44 RBI);  OF Jose Cruz Jr. (.247, 7 HR, 28 RBI in 170 AB); and SS Bobby Crosby (.254, 13 HR, 60 RBI). Newcomers to the franchise are OF Coco Crisp (.285, 39 2B, 76 R); 2B Antonio Perez (.261, 4 3B, 52 R, 13 SB) and OF Juan Encarnacion (.242, 10 HR, 39 RBI). Filling out the bench are back-up catcher Brad Ausmus (.265, 2 HR, 21 RBI in 181 AB), infielder Aaron Hill (.261, 6 2B in 142 AB), first basemen Justin Morneau (8-for-51, 3 HR, 6 RBI) and Ben Broussard (1-for-17) and outfielder Casey Blake (.256, 7 HR, 21 RBI in 90 AB).

The lineup may have some new faces, but every fan around baseball is familiar with the two guys at the top of the Arkansas rotation. Roger ClemensThe Falcs feature not one but two Ben McDonald Award candidates in Roger Clemens (15-8, 2.51 ERA, 8.6 R/9) and Pedro Martinez (18-10, 3.20 ERA, 9.8 R/9). But the Game 3 starter is a question mark. The front-runner just might be waiver-wire claim Odalis Perez (6-1, 4.62 ERA, 12.0 R/9 in 8 starts with Arkansas), but he may have a hard time unseating Brad Penny (13-8, 4.93 ERA, 13.0 R/9), who has been with the team since 2001. Danny Haren (8-11, 5.05 ERA, 12.9 R/9) might have an outside shot, but you can forget about Ervin Santana (2-12, 5.88 ERA, 14.8 R/9). You can also write off Curt Schilling, who missed the entire season after unwisely eating Mallomars after Memorial Day.

The Mudcats also return a lot of familiar faces on their pitching staff. Their top starter is Roy Halladay (17-6, 3.54 ERA, 10.3 R/9), who is in his fifth season with the club. But ahead of him in seniority is six-year man Barry Zito (14-10, 4.03 ERA, 12.3 R/9), and ahead of Zito is the team's senior member, Tim Hudson (10-14, 5.07 ERA, 14.0 R/9), who is in his seventh season with Carolina. It's unclear how those three will be used in the five-game series, or if one or two of them will be sat down in favor of veterans Carlos Zambrano (14-9, 4.29 ERA, 12.3 R/9) or Andy Pettitte (15-7, 4.52 ERA, 11.9 R/9). With five terrific starters to choose from, there's no reason to consider a surprise start from Ted Lilly, who was in the minors all season, or Shawn Chacon, who was roughed up (1-3, 6.97 ERA, 13.5 R/9) filling in when Halladay was injured in June.

The bullpen is solid, but nowhere near the embarrassment of riches that is the starting rotation. Ugueth UrbinaThe closer is Francisco Cordero (2-9, 25 SV, 3.55 ERA, 14.4 R/9), with set-up work from righties Ugueth Urbina (4-2, 1 SV, 3.68 ERA, 11.3 R/9) and Al Reyes (9-4, 7 SV, 4.46 ERA, 12.8 R/9) and lefty Brian Fuentes (3-2, 6 SV, 3.43 ERA, 10.2 R/9). The long man is veteran Jay Witasick (3-4, 2 SV, 7.96 ERA, 17.7 R/9), but he's had such a brutal season that you'd have to expect at least one of the team's left-over starters will be moved to the bullpen during the short first-round series.

Arkansas probably has the edge when it comes to the end-game, with flame-throwing closer Brad Lidge (2-6, 23 SV, 3.38 ERA, 10.9 R/9, 110 K in 77.1 IP) backed up by the yin-yang of rookie righty Fernando Rodney (3-4, 5 SV, 4.38 ERA, 12.4 R/9) and senior southpaw Eddie Guardado (0-1, 1 SV, 3.24 ERA, 9.7 R/9 in 26 G with Arkansas), plus hard-throwing Rudy Seanez (4-3, 3 SV, 4.99 ERA, 14.0 R/9). The long man is rubber-armed Aaron Heilman (9-8, 4 SV, 17 holds, 4.38 ERA, 13.3 R/9), who leads the league with 105 appearances.

The bottom line: It would be hard to find two teams more evenly matched -- in fact, they scored the same exact amount of runs, while Arkansas allowed just 10 fewer runs. The Carolina offense features a little more power, while Arkansas has a little more speed; the Mudcats have the deeper starting rotation, but the Golden Falcons have the better bullpen. Arkansas obviously has more playoff experience -- they've been to the Big Dance more times than any other franchise -- but Carolina also has been here plenty of times before. In fact, the Mudcats return more players from previous post-season teams than the Falcons do. Carolina also has the advantage of three of the five games to be played in Bullhead Memorial Stadium; the Mudcats are better at home (.593 HW%) than on the road (.543 RW%), as are the Falcons (.537 HW%, .512 RW%). But after watching the Falcons pull out victories in seven consecutive must-win games, including two one-game playoffs, it's hard to imagine them not finishing what they started. In fact, a fifth straight World Series death match against the Newark Sugar Bears seems not only possible, but inevitable!

Of Mice and Men

Marietta Mighty Men (#4, 91-71) vs. Las Vegas Rat Pack (#5, 87-75)

On July 13, you would have been hard-pressed to find someone predicting this post-season match-up! Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta started that week in 10th place, two games under .500 and 9½ games behind the Las Vegas Rat Pack, Stanhope Mighty MenMarietta's Mighty Menwho had the league's third-best record and still had ambitions of winning their first-ever Hanover Division title. Opting to punt on the '06 season and start rebuilding for next year, the Mites traded away two key players -- veteran slugger Gary Sheffield and left-handed reliever Aaron Fultz -- in exchange for rookie Jonny Gomes and a 9th-round draft pick. Everyone knew the trade would have a dramatic impact on the playoff race -- but who could have imagined how! After the deal, the Mites went 38-16 (.704 W%), while the Pack collapsed to 25-30 (.455). When the smoke had cleared, the Mighty Men had moved up 13½ games in the standings, zooming past the Rats for the league's fourth-best record. Meanwhile, the Pack fell all the way from 3rd to 5th, finally clinching on the final weekend of the season. The Mighty Men came out on top in the regular season series, 7 games to 6.

David Landsman's Mighty Men may be new to Marietta, but they're at ease in the playoffs. This is the fourth consecutive year, and the eighth in the last nine seasons, they've reached the big dance, a run that dates back to their years as the Jerusalem Rabbis and continued when they were the Stanhope Mighty Men. In their previous seven playoff trips, the Mites have survived the first round three times, including a bye as the top seed in their World Series-winning 2000 campaign; however, they've been eliminated in the first round the last two years running. The Mighty Men have lived up their names on offense, with the league's third-most runs scored (930). They also ranked 3rd in batting average, OBP, OPS, home runs and walks. Their pitching staff ranks 6th (810 RA). Their +120 run differential is second-best in the league.

The only owner getting his post-season cherry popped this year is Eric Wickstrom, whose Rat Pack has reached the promised land for the first time in its six-year history. In fact, they'd never even posted a winning record before this year. Despite that record for futility, the pre-season pundits had shockingly predicted the Pack would win the Hanover Division and post the league's second-best record. For much of the first half, the Rats were living up to the hype as they battled for the best record in baseball. But the Rat Pack would reach their high-water mark on June 5, catching the Newark Sugar Bears at a league-best 20 games over .500 (47-27). From that point on, however, the Pack would go just 40-48 (.455) as the Sugar Bears blew by them en route to the league's best record. The Rats would have to claw their way into the post-season, finally clinching with just three games remaining on their schedule. But now that they're in the big dance, the Rats may prove to be a tenacious opponent: They ranked 3rd in run differential (+100), indicating they may be a much better team than their 5th-best record would indicate. The key to their success is the league's best pitching staff this year, ranking 1st in fewest runs allowed (702). However, they rank squarely in the middle of the league when it comes to offense, coming in 7th with 802 runs scored. They lead the league in just one major offensive category -- stolen bases (173). The second-place team swiped 87!

It would be a mistake to dismiss the Las Vegas lineup as one-dimensional speed demons. They do have burners 3B Chone Figgins (.300, .735 OPS, 82 R, 68 SB) and 2B Ryan Freel (.287, .724 OPS, 74 R, 40 SB), Mark Teixeirabut also a couple all-around terrific hitters in 1B Mark Teixeira (.306, .980 OPS, 44 2B, 42 HR, 115 R, 108 RBI) and C Joe Mauer (.300, .867 OPS, 34 2B, 14 HR, 83 R), plus sluggers OF Pat Burrell (.261, .767 OPS, 25 HR, 84 RBI), SS Jhonny Peralta (.256, .778 OPS, 30 HR, 96 RBI) and 1B/DH Tony Clark (.236, .825 OPS, 36 HR, 97 RBI). The Rats also have a versatile bench with infielders Luis Castillo (.416, 29 R, 7 SB in 185 AB) and Jamey Carroll (4-for-12, 2 RBI) and back-up catcher Jose Molina (.234, 8 HR, 22 RBI in 158 AB). The offense's biggest problems -- and possibly greatest assets -- are three high-profile mid-season additions who thus far have failed to contribute absolutely anything to the lineup, despite posting solid numbers prior to the trades. Gary Sheffield was hitting .272 (.830 OPS) with 21 HR and 75 RBI for Marietta; once he arrived in Las Vegas, those numbers fell to .212, .648, 5 HR, 31 RBI. Reggie Sanders was posting huge numbers in D.C., hitting .284 (.976 OPS) with 22 HR and 51 RBI in just 56 games for D.C.; since the trade, he's hitting .211 with a .651 OPS, 12 HR, 51 RBI in 85 games. And Derrek Lee was having a season worthy of Kevin Mitchell Award consideration for Westwood, hitting .315 (.992 OPS) with 31 HR and 85 RBI; since joining the Rats, he's hitting .228 with a .719 OPS, 5 HR and 22 RBI. Their collective collapse was a huge reason why this team had such a miserable second half, but if just one of the three can find his pre-trade form, the Rat Pack could scurry all the way to the World Series.

While the Rat Pack has to hope their new acquisitions will finally start to jell, the Mighty Men moved to Marietta with the same core of veteran sluggers that powered them to the post-season in Jerusalem and Stanhope. Derek JeterThe team leader in every sense of the word is SS Derek Jeter (.287, .755 OPS, 13 HR, 107 R), who has been with the team since 1997. Other returning stars include OF Brian Giles (.331, .958 OPS, 27 HR, 141 R, 11 SB), OF Ken Griffey Jr. (.291, .875 OPS, 37 HR, 122 RBI), 1B Todd Helton (.281, .875 OPS, 23 HR, 90 RBI) and C Jorge Posada (.250, .748 OPS, 16 HR, 65 RBI), plus 2B Ray Durham (.280, .730 OPS, 15 HR, 79 R), who rejoined the team this year for the first time since 2001. But two of this year's best hitters are new additions to the club -- rookie OF Jonny Gomes (.335, 1.158 OPS, 23 HR, 68 RBI in 65 G with Marietta; .276, .896 OPS, 42 HR, 110 RBI overall) who is making a serious bid for the Pat Listach Rookie of the Year Award after being acquired at the trading deadline from Las Vegas; and third-year 3B Morgan Ensberg (.273, .895 OPS, 42 HR, 122 RBI in ), who was picked up prior to the start of the season and is having the year of his life, including a league-record 38-game hitting streak. Newcomers Scott Podsednik (.302, 9 R, 9 SB in 22 G with Marietta) and Victor Diaz (.254, 20 HR, 77 RBI) platoon in center field, and Matt LeCroy (.324, 2 HR, 9 RBI in 16 G with Marietta) usually starts at first against tough lefties. Coming off the bench are OF Wily Mo Pena (.255, 10 HR, 21 RBI in 149 AB), C Bengie Molina (.228, 2 HR, 8 RBI in 57 AB) and utility infielder Nick Punto (.232, 7 2B, 21 R in 138 AB) round out the bench.

The Mighty Men have eight starting pitchers to choose from, including two pitchers who were undefeated -- and probably won't start! Lefty Horacio Ramirez won his only start in the bigs this year despite allowing 5 ER, 9 H and 3 BB in 5.0 IP, while veteran Mike Mussina went 3-0 despite allowing a 6.75 ERA, 17.7 R/9 in two starts and seven relief appearances. It's also unlikely the Mighty Men will risk a start from Jason Marquis, who was 1-15 with a 6.59 ERA and a 16.7 R/9. You can definitely count on A.J. Burnett (15-8, 3.45 ERA, 12.5 R/9) and Jon Lieber (19-7, 4.32 ERA, 12.5 R/9) -- but which one starts Game 1? Burnett led the team in starter's ERA, Ks and HR/9, while Lieber led the Mites in wins, W% and innings. A more painful question is who starts Game 3: Mike Hampton (12-9, 5.32 ERA, 14.7 R/9) Kerry Wood (9-4, 5.90 ERA, 14.2 R/9) or Paul Byrd (9-12, 6.14 ERA, 14.9 R/9). The best choice might be Hampton -- the Rats were just 19-18 against lefties this year, compared to 68-57 against right-handers.

Even Rich Hardenthough the Pack has allowed the fewest runs in the league this season, the only starting pitcher having what could be considered a stand-out year is Rich Harden (14-6, 3.07 ERA, 10.8 R/9), who will almost certainly start Game 1. You can also pencil in Game 2's starter as Derek Lowe (14-8, 4.18 ERA, 12.4 R/9). But what about Game 3? The obvious choices are Brett Myers (9-13, 4.72 ERA, 11.8 R/9), Freddy Garcia (11-13, 5.08 ERA, 13.8 R/9) or Joe Blanton (11-9, 5.37 ERA, 12.8 R/9). Another possibility is Chris Young, but that seems unlikely -- he was 0-5 in 8 starts for D.C. (6.52 ERA, 14.4 R/9) and has made just two appearances since being acquired by Vegas (1-1, 5.19 ERA, 16.6 R/9).

If you noticed Harden is the only starter with an ERA or R/9 below the team averages of 3.91 and 11.7, you probably also realized this team must have an awesome bullpen. The closer is veteran Arthur Rhodes (4-3, 28 SV, 2.58 ERA, 9.4 R/9) who has pitched in five World Series as a member of the '98 Ironfist, '99 Golden Falcons and '01-'03 Sugar Bears -- and has three rings to show for it. Setting him up are veterans Todd Jones (5-4, 2 SV, 2.61 ERA, 9.8 R/9), Bobby Howry (5-5, 2 SV, 2.05 ERA, 8.1 R/9), Aaron Fultz (2-3, 3.77 ERA, 12.2 R/9 in 25 G with Las Vegas) and Kiko Calero (7-1, 3.41 ERA, 12.2 R/9) with youngster Justin Duchscherer (4-4, 9 SV, 3.21 ERA, 10.9 R/9) also in the mix.

However, the Mighty Men do have one advantage when it comes to the battle of the bullpens, and Mariano Riverathat advantage is named Mariano Rivera (7-5, 28 SV, 2.35 ERA, 9.2 R/9, 110 K in 99.2 IP). "The Sandman" didn't win his third Dennis Eckersley Award this season, but he is still on a very short list when it comes to the league's elite closers. Setting up Rivera is another DMBL legend, Trevor Hoffman (7-3, 6 SV, 3.32 ERA, 11.0 R/9), plus young guns Dan Wheeler (4-6, 5 SV, 3.78 ERA, 11.2 R/9) and Chris Ray (3-2, 1 SV, 6.86 ERA, 15.8 R/9). Expect at least one of the starters who didn't make the rotation to join the big four in the bullpen.

The bottom line: On paper, this looks like a classic match-up -- Marietta's good bats/mediocre arms against Las Vegas's good arms/mediocre bats. It's true the Mighty Men have more hitters and the Rat Pack has a deeper pitching staff, but in a short series, will it matter? The Mighty Men have two solid starters and a Hall of Fame closer, which may be enough to win three games in this series, while the Rat Pack have several quality hitters capable of carrying the team, plus a number of guys who can wreak havoc on the basepaths. The Mites do have one big advantage in that three of the five games are scheduled to be played in Marietta; while Triple-M boys are actually a slightly better road team (.556 W% at home, .568 W% on the road), the Rats have struggled outside the desert (.630 HW%, .444 RW%). That might just be enough of an edge to give this series to fourth-ranked Marietta -- who, if we judge by history, should actually be the underdog in the first round. Since the three-tiered playoff format was adopted in 1997, No. 4 teams have gone 1-8!

Take It Easy

Newark Sugar Bears (#1, 111-51) and Vancouver Ironfist (#2, 96-66)

Newark Sugar Bears Vancouver Ironfist Meanwhile, the division champions Newark Sugar Bears and Vancouver Ironfist get to sit out this round. Vancouver will face the lowest-seeded team that survives the first round, meaning Newark will face the sixth-seeded Arkansas Golden Falcons if they pull off the upset; otherwise, Vancouver faces the third-seeded Carolina Mudcats and the Sugar Bears face the winner of the show-down between the fourth-place Marietta Mighty Men and the fifth-place Las Vegas Rat Pack. During the bye week, the Fisters will stay sharp by playing scrimmages against Team Buddah, while the Sugar Bears will take on the 2006 New Jersey State Little League Champion Livingston American All-Stars.