The games 1, 2 and 5 -- if necessary --
will
be home games for the higher seeded team in this best-of-5 series.
Injuries
are turned off for the playoffs, meaning a player can be injured only
for
that particular game, but can return for the next game. Pitching
rotations
are on a four-man skip rotation, meaning the fourth starter will be
skipped
if the first starter is ready to pitch. Since there are off days off
games
2 and 4, some game 1 starters will be available in game 4 on three
days'
rest.
The top seed to survive this round will
take
on the No. 2 seed, the Morris Division champion Vancouver
Ironfist; the lower-seeded survivor faces the Hanover Division
winner, the top-seeded Newark Sugar Bears.
Carolina Mudcats (#3,
92-70) vs. Arkansas Golden Falcons (#6, 86-78)
Was there ever a year where the No. 3 team could be
considered the underdog? The Arkansas Golden
Falcons may have snuck into the
post-season by way of two one-game playoffs, but they've also been to
the World Series for the past four seasons. The 'Cats have plenty of
post-season experience as well, but it's hard to believe they weren't
rooting for the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen, Hoboken Cutters or Philadelphia
Endzone Animals to win the final playoff berth so they could avoid
playing the Falcs in the first round.
They've only faced each other in the post-season once before, with the
top-ranked Golden Falcons sweeping the fifth-seeded Mudcats in Round 2
of the '99 playoffs. But Carolina did edge Arkansas in head-to-head
play this season, 7 games to 6.
This year certainly doesn't rank with their
120-win season in 2002, but no matter how they did it, Mike "Stump" Matiash's Golden Falcons are in the
post-season for a league record 14th straight year.
Believe it or not, this is the first year they've made it as the No. 6
seed, and it's the first time since 2001 that they didn't earn a
first-round bye as the Morris Division champions. The Golden Falcons
are a phenomenal 5-1 in first-round match-ups, which doesn't include
the six times they cruised into the second round via the bye. Their
only first round loss came when they were the No. 4 seed, way back in
'97, when they were swept by the fifth-ranked Austin
Outlaws. The Falcons were a very balanced team this year, tying for
5th in runs scored (768) and ranking 4th in runs allowed (768) for a
fifth-best +79 run differential.
After a one-year hiatus, Chris Pucci's Mudcats are back to the post-season
for the third time in four years, and the fifth time in their 10-year
history. The 'Cats are 3-1 in
first round play, but their last appearance in 2004 -- when they also
were
the #3 seed -- resulted in a three-game sweep. They've
never
survived the second round, and in fact their three second-round losses
includes
two sweeps. In their previous playoff appearances, the Mudcats always
had
a terrific starting rotation, but were usually hampered by their
offense. But this year, the 'Cats have claws: Their offense tied with
the Golden Falcons for 5th-most runs (847 runs scored). The pitching
staff also finished close to Arkansas, just behind them in 5th place
(778 runs allowed). Their +69 run differential ranks 6th.
The Mudcats' revamped offense is sparked by
two exciting rookie outfielders -- Grady
Sizemore (.312, .880 OPS, 19 HR, 67 RBI, 11 SB) and Jeff Francouer
(.323, 1.052 OPS, 17 HR, 42 R in
195 AB). But the core of the
offense were with the squad during their previous playoff runs,
including OF Jim Edmonds (.214, .732 OPS, 27
HR, 76 RBI), DH Travis
Hafner (.313, 1.031 OPS, 35 HR, 84 RBI), OF Aubrey
Huff (.345, 6 HR, 18 RBI in 29 AB), 1B Paul
Konerko (.250, .781 OPS, 28 HR, 80 RBI), 3B Aramis
Ramirez (.265, .787 OPS, 33 HR, 103 RBI), 1B Richie
Sexson (.299, 14 HR, 42 RBI in 184 AB) and OF Randy
Winn (.296, .831 OPS, 22 HR, 82 R, 11 SB). Returning for their
second year with the 'Cats are 2B Bill Hall
(.250, .665 OPS, 44 2B, 86 R), C Toby Hall
(.257, .612 OPS, 6 HR, 61 RBI), SS Felipe Lopez
(.276, .783 OPS, 19 HR, 83 RBI) and C Jason
LaRue (.190, 1 HR, 6 RBI in 63 AB). In fact, other than Sizemore
and Francouer, the only other
newcomer is OF Kevin Mench (.266, 14 HR, 34
RBI in 173 AB), who usually starts
only against lefties.
The Falcons, on the other hand, are missing
three key batters from the post-season teams
past: Barry Bonds,
whom the team hopes to get back next season; Barry
Larkin,
who retired (but remains with the team as third base coach); and Larry
Walker, who left the Falcs to play out his final season in his
adopted home city of Hoboken. Without Barry, Barry and Larry, the
senior men on offense are 39-year-old Kenny Lofton (.283, .676
OPS, 62 R, 26 SB), in his seventh season with Arkansas ('98-'00,
'03-present), and 30-year-old Lance Berkman
(.262, .818 OPS, 27 HR, 99 RBI), who has been with Arkansas since 2001.
The rest of the team are virtually all in their first or second year in
Arkansas, including sophomore David Wright
(.299, .911 OPS, 47 2B, 32 HR, 113 R, 117 RBI), who leads the team in
almost every offensive category. Also back for a second year are OF David DeJesus (.312, .854 OPS, 31 2B, 82 R, 5
SB); C Javier Valentin (.279, .898 OPS, 27 HR,
78 RBI); 3B Adrian Beltre (.255, 4 HR, 11 RBI
in 55 AB); 1B Rafael Palmeiro (.243, 17 HR, 44
RBI); OF Jose Cruz Jr. (.247, 7 HR, 28
RBI in 170 AB); and SS Bobby Crosby (.254, 13 HR, 60 RBI). Newcomers to
the franchise are OF Coco Crisp
(.285, 39 2B, 76 R); 2B Antonio Perez (.261, 4
3B, 52 R, 13 SB) and OF Juan Encarnacion
(.242, 10 HR, 39 RBI). Filling out the bench are back-up catcher Brad Ausmus (.265, 2 HR, 21 RBI in 181 AB),
infielder Aaron
Hill (.261, 6 2B in 142 AB), first basemen Justin
Morneau (8-for-51, 3 HR, 6 RBI) and Ben
Broussard (1-for-17) and outfielder Casey Blake
(.256, 7 HR, 21 RBI in 90 AB).
The lineup may have some new faces, but
every fan around baseball is familiar with the two guys at the top of
the Arkansas rotation. The
Falcs feature not one but two Ben
McDonald Award candidates in Roger Clemens
(15-8, 2.51 ERA, 8.6 R/9) and Pedro Martinez
(18-10,
3.20 ERA, 9.8 R/9). But the Game 3
starter is a question mark. The front-runner just might be waiver-wire
claim Odalis Perez (6-1, 4.62 ERA, 12.0 R/9 in
8
starts with Arkansas), but he may have a hard time unseating Brad
Penny (13-8, 4.93 ERA, 13.0 R/9), who has been with the team since
2001. Danny Haren (8-11, 5.05 ERA, 12.9 R/9)
might have an outside shot, but you can forget about Ervin
Santana (2-12, 5.88 ERA, 14.8 R/9). You can also write off Curt Schilling, who missed the entire season
after unwisely eating Mallomars after Memorial Day.
The Mudcats also return a lot of familiar
faces on their pitching staff. Their top starter is Roy
Halladay (17-6, 3.54 ERA, 10.3 R/9), who is in his fifth season
with the club. But ahead of
him in seniority
is six-year man Barry Zito (14-10, 4.03 ERA,
12.3 R/9), and ahead of Zito
is
the team's senior member, Tim Hudson (10-14,
5.07 ERA, 14.0 R/9), who is
in
his seventh season with Carolina. It's unclear how those three will be
used
in the five-game series, or if one or two of them will be sat down in
favor
of veterans Carlos Zambrano (14-9, 4.29 ERA,
12.3 R/9) or Andy Pettitte (15-7, 4.52 ERA,
11.9 R/9). With five terrific starters to
choose
from, there's no reason to consider a surprise start from Ted Lilly, who was in the minors all season, or Shawn Chacon, who was roughed up (1-3, 6.97 ERA,
13.5
R/9) filling in when Halladay was injured in June.
The bullpen is solid, but nowhere near the
embarrassment of riches that is the starting rotation. The
closer is Francisco Cordero (2-9, 25 SV, 3.55
ERA, 14.4 R/9), with set-up work from righties Ugueth
Urbina (4-2, 1 SV, 3.68 ERA, 11.3 R/9) and Al
Reyes (9-4, 7 SV, 4.46 ERA, 12.8 R/9) and lefty Brian
Fuentes (3-2, 6 SV, 3.43 ERA, 10.2 R/9). The long man is veteran Jay Witasick (3-4, 2 SV, 7.96 ERA, 17.7 R/9), but
he's had such a brutal season that you'd have to expect at least one of
the team's left-over starters will be moved to the bullpen during the
short
first-round series.
Arkansas probably has the edge when it
comes to the end-game, with flame-throwing closer Brad
Lidge (2-6, 23 SV, 3.38 ERA, 10.9 R/9, 110 K in 77.1 IP) backed up
by the yin-yang of rookie righty Fernando Rodney
(3-4, 5 SV, 4.38 ERA, 12.4 R/9) and senior southpaw Eddie
Guardado (0-1, 1 SV, 3.24 ERA, 9.7 R/9 in 26 G with Arkansas), plus
hard-throwing Rudy Seanez (4-3, 3 SV, 4.99
ERA, 14.0 R/9). The long man is rubber-armed Aaron
Heilman (9-8, 4 SV, 17 holds, 4.38 ERA, 13.3 R/9), who leads the
league with 105 appearances.
The bottom line:
It would be hard to find two teams more evenly matched -- in fact, they
scored the same exact amount of runs, while Arkansas allowed just 10
fewer runs. The Carolina offense features a little more power, while
Arkansas has a little more speed; the Mudcats have the deeper starting
rotation, but the Golden Falcons have the better bullpen. Arkansas
obviously has more playoff experience -- they've been to the Big Dance
more times than any other franchise -- but Carolina also has been here
plenty of times before. In fact, the Mudcats return more players from
previous post-season teams than the Falcons do. Carolina also has the
advantage of three of the five games to be played in Bullhead Memorial
Stadium; the Mudcats are better at home (.593 HW%) than on the road
(.543 RW%), as are the Falcons (.537 HW%, .512 RW%). But after watching
the Falcons pull out victories in seven consecutive must-win games,
including two one-game playoffs, it's hard to imagine them not
finishing what they started. In fact, a fifth straight World Series
death match against the Newark Sugar Bears
seems not only possible, but inevitable!
Marietta Mighty Men (#4,
91-71) vs. Las Vegas Rat Pack (#5, 87-75)
On July 13, you would have been hard-pressed to find someone predicting
this post-season match-up! Matthew's Mighty Men of
Marietta started that week in 10th place, two games under .500 and
9½
games behind the Las Vegas Rat Pack, who had the league's third-best record and still had
ambitions of winning their first-ever Hanover Division title. Opting to
punt on the '06 season and start rebuilding for next year, the Mites
traded away two key players -- veteran slugger Gary
Sheffield and left-handed reliever Aaron Fultz
-- in exchange for rookie Jonny Gomes and a
9th-round draft pick. Everyone knew the trade would have a dramatic
impact on the playoff race -- but who could have imagined how! After
the deal, the Mites went 38-16 (.704 W%), while the Pack collapsed to
25-30 (.455). When the smoke had cleared, the Mighty Men had moved up
13½ games in the standings, zooming past the Rats for the
league's fourth-best record. Meanwhile, the Pack fell all the way from
3rd to 5th, finally clinching on the final weekend of the season. The
Mighty Men came out on top in the regular season series, 7 games to 6.
David Landsman's
Mighty Men may be
new to Marietta, but they're at ease in the playoffs. This is the
fourth consecutive
year, and the eighth in the last nine seasons, they've reached the big
dance,
a run that dates back to their years as the Jerusalem
Rabbis and continued when they were the Stanhope
Mighty Men. In their previous seven playoff trips, the Mites have
survived
the first round three times, including a bye as the top seed in their
World Series-winning 2000 campaign; however, they've been eliminated in
the first round the last two years running. The Mighty Men
have
lived up their names on offense, with the league's third-most runs
scored (930).
They also ranked 3rd in batting average, OBP, OPS, home runs and walks.
Their pitching staff ranks 6th (810 RA). Their +120 run differential is
second-best in the league.
The only owner getting his post-season
cherry popped this year is Eric Wickstrom,
whose Rat Pack has reached the promised land for the first time in its
six-year history. In fact, they'd never even posted a winning record
before this year. Despite that record for futility, the pre-season pundits had shockingly predicted
the
Pack would win the Hanover Division and post the league's second-best
record.
For much of the first half, the Rats were living up to the hype as they
battled
for the best record in baseball. But the Rat Pack would reach their
high-water
mark on June 5, catching the Newark
Sugar Bears at a league-best 20 games over .500 (47-27). From that
point on, however, the Pack would go just 40-48 (.455) as the Sugar
Bears blew by them en route to the league's best record. The Rats would
have to claw their way into the post-season, finally clinching with
just three games remaining on their schedule. But now that they're in
the
big
dance, the Rats may prove to be a tenacious opponent: They ranked 3rd
in run differential (+100), indicating they may be a much better team
than their 5th-best record would indicate. The key to their success is
the league's best pitching staff this year, ranking 1st in fewest runs
allowed (702). However, they rank squarely in the middle of the league
when it comes to offense, coming in 7th with 802 runs scored. They lead
the league in just one major offensive category -- stolen bases (173).
The second-place team swiped 87!
It would be a mistake to dismiss
the Las Vegas lineup as one-dimensional speed demons. They do have
burners 3B Chone
Figgins (.300, .735 OPS, 82 R, 68 SB) and 2B Ryan
Freel (.287, .724 OPS, 74 R, 40 SB), but also a couple all-around terrific hitters in
1B Mark
Teixeira (.306, .980 OPS, 44 2B, 42 HR, 115 R, 108 RBI) and C Joe Mauer (.300, .867 OPS, 34 2B, 14 HR, 83 R),
plus sluggers OF Pat Burrell (.261, .767 OPS,
25
HR, 84 RBI), SS Jhonny Peralta
(.256, .778 OPS, 30 HR, 96 RBI) and 1B/DH Tony
Clark (.236, .825 OPS, 36 HR, 97 RBI). The Rats also have a
versatile bench with
infielders Luis Castillo (.416, 29 R, 7 SB in
185 AB) and Jamey Carroll (4-for-12, 2 RBI)
and back-up catcher Jose Molina (.234, 8 HR,
22 RBI in 158 AB). The offense's biggest problems -- and
possibly greatest assets -- are three high-profile mid-season additions
who
thus
far have failed to contribute absolutely anything to the lineup,
despite
posting solid numbers prior to the trades. Gary
Sheffield
was hitting .272 (.830 OPS) with 21 HR and 75 RBI for Marietta; once he
arrived
in Las Vegas, those numbers fell to .212, .648, 5 HR, 31 RBI. Reggie
Sanders
was posting huge numbers in D.C., hitting .284 (.976 OPS) with 22 HR
and
51 RBI in just 56 games for D.C.; since the trade, he's hitting .211
with a .651 OPS, 12 HR, 51 RBI in 85 games. And Derrek
Lee was having a season worthy of Kevin
Mitchell
Award consideration for Westwood, hitting .315 (.992 OPS) with 31
HR
and 85 RBI; since joining the Rats, he's hitting .228 with a .719 OPS,
5 HR and 22 RBI. Their collective
collapse
was a huge reason why this team had such a miserable second half,
but if just one of the three can find his pre-trade form, the Rat Pack
could
scurry all the way to the World Series.
While the Rat Pack has to hope their new
acquisitions will finally start to jell, the Mighty Men moved to
Marietta with the same
core of veteran sluggers that powered them to the post-season in
Jerusalem and Stanhope. The team leader in every sense of the word is SS
Derek Jeter (.287, .755 OPS, 13 HR,
107 R),
who has been with the team since 1997.
Other returning stars include OF Brian Giles
(.331, .958 OPS, 27 HR, 141 R, 11 SB),
OF Ken Griffey Jr. (.291, .875 OPS, 37 HR, 122
RBI), 1B Todd
Helton
(.281, .875 OPS, 23 HR, 90 RBI) and C Jorge Posada
(.250, .748 OPS, 16 HR, 65 RBI), plus 2B Ray Durham
(.280, .730 OPS, 15 HR, 79 R), who rejoined the team this year for
the first time since 2001.
But two of this year's best hitters are new additions to the club --
rookie
OF Jonny Gomes (.335, 1.158 OPS, 23 HR, 68 RBI
in 65 G with Marietta; .276, .896 OPS, 42 HR, 110 RBI overall) who is
making a serious bid
for the Pat Listach Rookie of the
Year
Award after being acquired at the trading deadline from Las
Vegas;
and third-year 3B Morgan Ensberg (.273, .895
OPS, 42 HR, 122 RBI in ), who was
picked
up prior to the start of the season and is having the year of his life,
including
a league-record 38-game hitting streak. Newcomers Scott
Podsednik (.302, 9 R, 9 SB in 22 G with Marietta) and Victor Diaz (.254, 20 HR, 77 RBI) platoon in
center field, and Matt LeCroy (.324, 2 HR, 9
RBI in 16 G with Marietta) usually starts at
first against
tough lefties. Coming off the bench are OF Wily Mo
Pena (.255, 10 HR, 21 RBI in 149 AB), C Bengie
Molina (.228, 2 HR, 8 RBI in 57 AB) and utility infielder Nick Punto (.232, 7 2B, 21 R in 138 AB) round out
the bench.
The Mighty Men have eight starting pitchers
to choose from, including two pitchers who were undefeated -- and
probably
won't start! Lefty Horacio Ramirez won his
only
start in the bigs this year despite allowing 5 ER, 9 H and 3 BB in 5.0
IP, while
veteran Mike Mussina went 3-0
despite allowing a 6.75 ERA, 17.7 R/9 in two starts and seven relief
appearances.
It's also unlikely the Mighty Men will risk a start from Jason Marquis, who was 1-15 with a 6.59 ERA and a
16.7
R/9. You can definitely count on A.J. Burnett
(15-8, 3.45 ERA, 12.5 R/9) and Jon Lieber
(19-7, 4.32 ERA, 12.5 R/9) -- but which one starts Game 1? Burnett led
the team in starter's
ERA,
Ks and HR/9, while Lieber led the Mites in wins, W% and innings. A more
painful question is who starts Game 3: Mike Hampton
(12-9, 5.32 ERA, 14.7 R/9) Kerry Wood (9-4,
5.90 ERA, 14.2 R/9) or Paul
Byrd (9-12, 6.14 ERA, 14.9 R/9). The best choice might be Hampton
-- the Rats were just 19-18 against lefties this year, compared to
68-57 against right-handers.
Even though the Pack has allowed the fewest runs in
the league this season, the only
starting pitcher having what could be considered a stand-out year is Rich Harden (14-6, 3.07 ERA, 10.8 R/9), who will
almost certainly start Game
1. You can also pencil in Game 2's starter as Derek
Lowe (14-8, 4.18 ERA, 12.4 R/9). But what about Game 3? The obvious
choices are Brett Myers (9-13, 4.72 ERA, 11.8
R/9), Freddy Garcia
(11-13, 5.08 ERA, 13.8 R/9) or Joe Blanton
(11-9, 5.37 ERA, 12.8 R/9). Another possibility is Chris
Young, but
that seems unlikely -- he was 0-5 in 8 starts for D.C. (6.52 ERA, 14.4
R/9)
and has made just two appearances since being acquired by Vegas (1-1,
5.19
ERA, 16.6 R/9).
If you noticed Harden is the only starter with an ERA
or R/9 below the team averages of 3.91 and 11.7,
you probably also realized this team must have an awesome
bullpen. The closer is veteran Arthur Rhodes
(4-3, 28 SV, 2.58 ERA, 9.4 R/9)
who has pitched in five World Series as a
member of the '98 Ironfist, '99 Golden Falcons and '01-'03 Sugar
Bears -- and has three rings to show for it. Setting him up are
veterans Todd Jones (5-4, 2 SV, 2.61 ERA, 9.8
R/9), Bobby Howry (5-5, 2 SV, 2.05 ERA, 8.1
R/9), Aaron
Fultz (2-3, 3.77 ERA, 12.2 R/9 in 25 G with Las Vegas) and Kiko Calero (7-1, 3.41 ERA, 12.2 R/9) with
youngster Justin Duchscherer (4-4, 9 SV, 3.21
ERA, 10.9 R/9) also in the mix.
However, the Mighty Men do have one
advantage when
it
comes to the battle of the bullpens, and that
advantage is
named Mariano Rivera (7-5, 28 SV, 2.35 ERA,
9.2 R/9,
110 K in 99.2 IP). "The Sandman" didn't win his
third Dennis Eckersley Award this season, but he is
still
on a very short list when it comes to the league's elite closers.
Setting
up Rivera is another DMBL legend, Trevor Hoffman
(7-3, 6 SV, 3.32 ERA, 11.0 R/9), plus young guns Dan
Wheeler (4-6, 5 SV, 3.78 ERA, 11.2 R/9) and Chris
Ray (3-2, 1 SV, 6.86 ERA, 15.8 R/9). Expect at least one of the
starters
who
didn't make the rotation to join the big four in the bullpen.
The bottom line: On
paper, this looks like a classic match-up -- Marietta's good
bats/mediocre arms against Las Vegas's good arms/mediocre bats. It's
true the Mighty Men have more hitters and the Rat Pack has a deeper
pitching staff, but in a short series, will it matter? The Mighty Men
have two solid starters and a Hall of Fame closer, which may be enough
to win three games in this series, while the Rat Pack have several
quality
hitters capable of carrying the team, plus a number of guys who can
wreak havoc on the basepaths. The Mites do have one big
advantage in that three of the five games are scheduled to be played in
Marietta; while Triple-M boys are actually a slightly better road team
(.556 W% at home, .568 W% on the road), the Rats have struggled outside
the desert (.630 HW%, .444 RW%). That might just be enough of an edge
to give this series to fourth-ranked Marietta -- who, if we judge by
history, should actually be the underdog in the first round. Since the
three-tiered playoff format was adopted in 1997, No. 4 teams have gone
1-8!
Newark Sugar Bears
(#1, 111-51) and Vancouver Ironfist (#2, 96-66)
Meanwhile, the
division champions Newark Sugar Bears and Vancouver Ironfist get to sit out this round.
Vancouver will face the lowest-seeded team that survives the first
round, meaning Newark will face the sixth-seeded Arkansas
Golden Falcons if they pull off the upset; otherwise, Vancouver
faces the third-seeded Carolina Mudcats and
the Sugar Bears face the winner of the show-down between the
fourth-place Marietta Mighty Men and the
fifth-place Las Vegas Rat Pack. During the
bye week, the Fisters
will stay sharp
by playing scrimmages against Team Buddah,
while the Sugar Bears will take on the 2006 New Jersey State Little
League Champion Livingston
American All-Stars.
|