2006 Diamond Mind Baseball League Predictions

March 10, 2006

1. Purpose
   To simulate 10 Diamond Mind Baseball seasons to observe the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams.


2. Methodology
   Using the post-draft rosters, 10 full seasons were simulated, using computer manager-selected lineups and pitching rotations.
   1. Accuracy Limitations
      1. The computer picked the lineups, starting rotations and bullpen assignments for every team. The computer tends to favor players with lots of at-bats and innings pitched, even if another player compiled better statistics in limited duty; human owners tend to do the opposite. Also, the computer doesn't change lineups or pitching charts except for injuries.
      2. The owners will be limited to a 25-man active roster, but the computer had access to every eligible player on a team's 40-man roster (prior to March 10).
      3. Injuries were turned on, with the Injury Rating setting used. This is the same setting that will be used during the regular season, but injuries cannot be accurately projected for any given season.
      4. Transactions for injuries, trades and waiver-wire pickups were not simulated. Injured players were replaced by players already on that team's roster, not from the waiver wire.
      5. Because teams can still change their home stadium before the start of the 2006 season, each team has been assigned to "Neutral Park." The use of different parks during the season will certainly affect team scoring.
      
      
3. Past Performance
   
   1. This is the sixth year of the simulations. 
   2. What we got right: Last year, the sims correctly pegged the top two teams (Newark Sugar Bears and Arkansas Golden Falcons) and the bottom two teams (Phoenix Dragons and Westwood Deductions), and even put them in the right order. They came within one game of correctly predicting the won-loss records for the Philadelphia Endzone Animals and Stanhope Mighty Men, and within two games for the Columbia Rattlesnakes and Las Vegas Rat Pack.
   1. Overall, the sims correctly picked five of the six playoff teams (Newark, Arkansas, Philly, Stanhope and the Vancouver Ironfist), though only the #1 and #2 seeds were in the right order.
   2. The sims picked Vancouver and Philadelphia to reach the playoffs even though the Ironfist hadn't been to the big dance since 2002, and the Endzone Animals had never even sniffed the post-season. Getting the Animals right was particularly satisfying as the sims had predicted they'd be good in 2003 and 2004, only to see them go down in flames.
      
   3. The sims also correctly predicted the Tijuana Banditos, a playoff team in 2004, would not be there in 2005, and that the Rattlesnakes -- defeated by the Banditos in a one-game playoff -- also would take a step backward.
      
   3. What we got wrong: For the third straight year, the sims undervalued the Honolulu Sharks, seeing them tied for 10th at 73-89; instead, they went 91-71 to reach the playoffs as the #5 seed, just two games out of the top wildcard spot.  The Sharks were 18 wins better than expected, the second straight year they were the top overachiever. The sims also whiffed on the Carolina Mudcats, predicting they'd reach the post-season for a third-straight year with a sixth-best 83-79 record; instead, they were five wins worse, at 78-84, and finished 8th.
      
   1. But, for the second straight year, the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen were the league's biggest underachievers. This year, the sims predicted the Destroyers would be tied for seventh at 78-84; instead, they were third-worst, 63-99, 15 wins worse than expected. The other underachievers also were teams that did even worse than the sims expected: the Westwood Deductions (8 wins worse than expected), Phoenix Dragons (-8) and the former Banditos, now known as the South Boston Gang (-5).
   2. The overachievers were the Ironfist (7 wins better than expected), Cutters (+7), Sugar Bears (+6) and Golden Falcons (+4).
   4. Previous sim results: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005.


4. This Year's Conclusions
   
   1. If the sims are right, there will be a changing of the guard in 2006.
   1. The sims predict two teams will bust their World Series cherries this season: the Carolina Mudcats and Las Vegas Rat Pack. It would certainly be a longshot: Neither team reached the playoffs last year; neither team has ever won its division; and there's never been a World Series not involving a league-founding team! 
      
   2. The sims also foresee strong performances from the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen and Hoboken Cutters, two former playoff teams eager to get back to the big dance; and disappointment for the Philadelphia Endzone Animals and Honolulu Sharks, two 2005 playoff teams predicted to finish out of the money this year.
      
   3. But perhaps the sims' boldest prediction is that the Arkansas Golden Falcons will finish in 8th place, at 81-81, four games out of the post-season. It would be the worst performance of their 14-year history, and the first time they'd be out of the playoffs since the inaugural 1991 season -- when only the top two teams made it, and they finished third.
      
   2. But the sims also see some of the same ol' same ol' for the upcoming season.
   1. The Newark Sugar Bears are expected to return to the post-season, as they have in each year of their existence, though they are not expected to win their division for the first time since 2000. The sims also see a return to the playoffs for the Vancouver Ironfist and Marietta Mighty Men, who have relocated from Stanhope.
   2. The sims also expect more high draft picks for last year's two worst teams, the Phoenix Dragons and Westwood Deductions, who are expected to be in the bottom five again.
      
   3. And they don't see new names bringing better luck for the DC Bushslappers (formerly the Columbia Rattlesnakes). who will challenge the Dragons for the league's worst record, or the South Boston Gang (formerly the Tijuana Banditos), projected to climb just one rung higher than last year's 11-place finish.  
      
   3. Overall, it looks like there will be a lot of parity this year: No team averages 100 wins or 100 losses over the 10 seasons, and 11 of the 14 teams have at least one post-season appearance. Also, in four of the 10 seasons, there's a tie for 6th place, including two three-way ties in which only one team advances! (For the purpose of the simulations, the team with the higher run-differential was deemed the playoff winner.)
   1. It seems a lock that Carolina, Las Vegas and Vancouver will reach the playoffs; there's just one simulated season that doesn't have all three going to the big dance. In more than half the seasons, Marietta, Newark and Hillsborough get there as well, but there are five teams (Hoboken, Arkansas, Philadelphia, South Boston and Westwood) that sneak in from time to time. Only Honolulu, Phoenix and DC never get there.
      
   2. For the third straight year, the sims think the Morris Division is much stronger than their Hanover rivals, with three of the league's four worst teams coming from the Hanover.

ARKANSAS GOLDEN FALCONS
prediction: 81-81 (8th), 800 rf (7th), 788 ra (7-T), +12 margin (8th)
With Barry Bonds sitting out the season to explore his feminine side, Curt Schilling likely to spend most or all of the year in Triple-A, and owner Mike "Stump" Matiash dedicating all his free time 4-Way Lock & Door, it's not unreasonable to expect the Golden Falcons to soar a little lower this season. But according to the sims, they may not even get out of the nest! The sims predict mediocrity across the board, ranking 7th in offense (800 runs scored) and tied for 7th in defense (788 runs against) for an 8th-best +12 run differential. Only twice in the 10 sims do the Golden Falcons reach the post-season -- which would snap their streak of consecutive playoff appearances at a DMBL-record 13 straight seasons. But there's reason to suspect the Falcs are better than the sims think. First of all, their offense finishes in the top 5 in four different seasons (#4, #7, #9, #10), and their pitching staff finishes in the top 5 three times (#3, #8 and #10). In two of the seasons where they miss the playoffs (Sim 3 and Sim 7), they're extraordinarily unlucky, winning five less games than their Pythagorean Wins Formula would expect; give them five more wins in either season, and they're in the playoffs. What's the best-case scenario? Well, in Sim #10, the hitters and the pitchers both turn in strong performances, and the team gets a few lucky bounces -- and they post the league's best record at 98-64.

CAROLINA MUDCATS
prediction: 95-67 (1st), 845 rf (2nd), 701 ra (1st), +144 margin (1st)
The Mudcats have long been one of the league's better teams, having reached the playoffs in four of their nine seasons, and they game within two games of winning their first-ever Morris Division title in 2004. The Mudcats missed the post-season last year for the first time since 2002, but fans were hopeful they'd be back in it this season. But did anyone other than owner Chris Pucci imagine they'd be this good? The sims predict the Mudcats will easily post the league's top record, and are a lock for the post-season, having reached it -- as, at worst, the fourth-seed -- in all 10 seasons, a feat accomplished by only one other team. In fact, half of the top 10 simulated seasons are turned in by the Mudcats, including the season with the most wins by any team (102, in Sim #8). They also post five of the top six run differentials. Their formula for success is easy to understand: it's just the league's top pitching staff (701 runs allowed), plus the league's second-best offense (873 runs scored), combining for a league-high +144 run margin. The 'Cats lead the league in fewest runs allowed six times, and never finish worse than 4th (Sim #5); their offense ranks in the top 3 five times, and only once (Sim #10) out of the top six, when they finish 8th. Even in that year, though, their stingy defense keeps enough runs off the board to help them cruise into the playoffs as the #4 seed. From every indication, the Mudcats are one of the league's elite teams in 2006.

D.C. BUSHSLAPPERS
prediction: 72-90 (14th), 682 rf (13th), 835 ra (13th), -153 margin (14th)
The league is down to just three founding members as Brian "Dizzy" Dissler sold his beloved Columbia franchise to campaign for political office. Columbia had the first-ever pick in DMBL history and used it to select Cecil Fielder, only to trade him later that season. The franchise has never recovered, posting 14 losing seasons -- yet despite having never reached the playoffs, they've also, incredibly, had the #1 pick in just one other season. (They took 32-year-old rookie Orlando Hernandez, who went 7-19 with a 4.97 ERA, then traded him after the season for a 4th rounder and a 10th rounder.) The team just missed reaching the playoffs in 2004, tying for the sixth and final playoff berth, only to lose a one-game playoff in the 163rd game of the year. Last year, the Rattlesnakes took a step backward, finishing at 10th place at 74-88, and Dissler decided the time was right to get out of the baseball business. Now the team has a new owner, Jamie Landsman, who has brought a new name and perhaps a new attitude to the beleagured squad. Landsman made no bones about this being a rebuilding year, trading away several players and picks in his first month of ownership to restock for the future. And the sims say a No. 1 pick could be in the cards for the Bushslappers in '07. In 10 simulated seasons, there were only five teams that lost 100 or more games -- three of them were the Bushslappers. They also are one of just three teams to never win a playoff berth. Overall, they finish last four times and second-to-last five times; in their best season, Sim 8, they go 72-90 to finish in 11th place, 13 games out of a playoff berth. The Bushslappers are nicely balanced, combining the league's second-worst offense (682 runs for) and second-worst defense (835 runs allowed) for a league-worst -153 run-differential. It appears it is going to be another long season in the District. 

TEAM	YR	W	L	PCT.	#	RF	RA	MGN	PYTH	PW	PL	DIF
D.C.	1	59	103	0.364	14th	627	806	-179	0.377	61	101	- 2
D.C.	2	65	97	0.401	14th	684	865	-181	0.385	62	100	+ 3
D.C.	3	68	94	0.420	14th	698	851	-153	0.402	65	97	+ 3
D.C.	4	64	98	0.395	13th	732	923	-191	0.386	63	99	+ 1
D.C.	5	69	93	0.426	13th	691	810	-119	0.421	68	94	+ 1
D.C.	6	59	103	0.364	14th	679	876	-197	0.375	61	101	- 2
D.C.	7	69	93	0.426	13th	652	798	-146	0.400	65	97	+ 4
D.C.	8	72	90	0.444	11th	695	783	- 88	0.441	71	91	+ 1
D.C.	9	67	95	0.414	13th	660	792	-132	0.410	66	96	+ 1
D.C.	10	62	100	0.383	13th	697	842	-145	0.407	66	96	- 4
D.C.	TOT	65	97	0.401	14th	682	835	-153	0.400	65	97	0

HILLSBOROUGH HIRED HITMEN
prediction: 85-77 (6th), 831 rf (3rd), 788 ra (7-T), +43 margin (5th)
Brent Campbell first entered the league in '92, taking a last-place Scranton Sparrows team in '92 (59-103) to a 90-72 record. Can he perform another miracle in Hillsborough? The Hitmen were a third-worst 63-99 last year, but spent the '05 season stocking up on draft picks and prospects. Now, with rookies Ryan Howard, Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez and Bobby Jenks joining veterans Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Delgado, Bartolo Colon and Jason Varitek, the sims think the Hitmen are a solid bet as a playoff contender in '06. Triple H never wins the Morris Division, or even the top wildcard seed, but they do reach the playoffs in seven of the 10 sims, tying them with Newark for the fourth-most appearances. The league's third-best offense (831 runs for) is their best bet for the post-season; their pitching staff is too inconsistent, including two third-worst performances (Sims 1 and 2), and two in the top five (sims 6 and 7). For the most part, they're right around where they finish overall, tied for 7th (788 runs against). But the offense can usually make up for whatever problems the pitchers cause, as the Hitmen have a negative run differential just once (Sim 3). Overall, they post a fifth-best +43 run margin over the 10 seasons, producing a Pythagorean Won-Lost Record of 85-77 -- exactly in line with their overall record over the 10 simulations.. 

HOBOKEN CUTTERS
prediction: 82-80 (7th), 770 rf (9th), 756 ra (4th), +14 margin (7th)
The Cutters are one of the most consistent teams in the sims: In eight of the 10 seasons, they finish within one game of a .500 record. Considering that'd be the second-best performance in franchise history, that's not a bad "worst-case scenario" for owner Mark Hrywna's franchise in '06. The Cutters' pitching staff and defense does a great job of keeping them in games, with just 756 runs allowed (4th best), but have a tough time scoring enough runs to win, ranking 9th with 770 runs scored. The resulting +14 run margin, seventh-best, doesn't leave much room for error. Yet this franchise reaches the playoffs in three of the 10 seasons, plus they have three near-misses -- two sims when they finish within two games of the final playoff berth, and Sim 3, when they join a monster four-way tie for the final wildcard spot but lose on a tiebreaker. Their best season is undoubtedly Sim 4, when they tie for the Hanover Division title. That year, despite another so-so performance from the lineup (a 9th-best 794 runs scored), the league's second-best pitching staff (708 runs allowed) is good enough to give them a second-best run differential (+86). But that's really the only highlight; in their only other season better than 82-80, they win 86 games, but that's despite a -10 run differential that says they shouldn't have even been a .500 team.

HONOLULU SHARKS
prediction: 70-92 (12th), 762 rf (10th), 883 ra (14th), -121 diff (12th)
For three straight seasons, the sims have predicted the Sharks will sink to the bottom, and instead they've made the playoffs. Maybe it's sour grapes, but the sims say the Sharks will be one of the worst teams in the league this year, combining the fifth-worst offense (762 runs scored) and the absolute worst pitching staff (883 runs allowed) to post the league's third-worst record (70-92) and third-worst run margin (-121). And if you think that's bad, just wait 'til you see Sim 4, when the Sharks have by far the worst season of any team in any sim, with the most losses (105), worst run margin (-248) and most runs allowed (965). The shellacking in that season is so bad that you might think the Sharks' overall pitching stats might not be as bad as it would appear. You might think that, but you would be wrong. In fact, the Sharks allow the most runs in eight of the 10 sims, and the second-most runs in another. Their "best" pitching performance is Sim 10, when they give up just 846 runs (fourth-most in the league). But while they're very consistent at giving up runs, their offense is more unpredictable, ranging from good (fourth-best in Sim 3) to ugly (second-worst in Sim 4), but is generally pretty bad, finishing in the bottom 6 seven times. In their best season, Sim 10, they climb to within two games of .500, thanks to that best-ever 11th-place pitching performance and a mediocre 7th-place offensive output. But even in that season, they finish well out of the playoff race in 9th place. Of course, last year the sims had very much the same impression of the Sharks, finding they had the league's worst pitching staffs and never predicting a finish above .500 -- and yet they were the #5 team in the playoffs and pulled off a first-round upset of the Endzone Animals. From owner Adam Kozubal's point of a view, a bleak sims prediction is good news.

LAS VEGAS RAT PACK
prediction: 92-70 (2nd), 831 rf (4th), 723 ra (2nd), +108 margin (3rd)
The Austin Outlaws rank as one of the all-time great franchises, with three World Series appearances (all losses), two Hanover Division titles, two Commissioner's Cups, and a lifetime franchise winning percentage of .586. The team never missed the playoffs in its nine-year history, and in the first four years of the league, captured two Kevin Mitchell Awards and three Ben McDonald Awards. But following its 95-win season in 2000, the team was sold to Eric Wickstrom and its fortunes changed immediately. In 2001, the newly named Harrison Rats finished in a four-way tie for seventh place at 78-84, four games out of a playoff berth. The following year they lost an astonishing 109 games and finished dead last. Since then, they've been steadily rebuilding -- 67 wins in '03, 75 in '04 and 76 in '05 as the Las Vegas Rat Pack -- and now the sims believe they're poised to return to glory at the top of the Hanover Division. Over the 10 sims, the Rats combine the fourth-best offense (831 runs for) and second-best defense (723 runs against) for a third-best +108 run margin. They have only two mediocre seasons -- Sim 3, when they reach the playoffs as the sixth seed despite a 80-82 record, and Sim 4, when they miss the playoffs by 3 games despite going 84-78. In each of those seasons, Pythagoras says the Pack is better than their record, with run differentials suggesting they were the third-best team in Sim 3 and fifth-best in Sim 4. In the other eight seasons, they win the Hanover Division seven times, including two seasons when they post the league's best record. The Rat Pack also has one of just two 100-win seasons (Sim 6) over the 10 sims, and one of only two 99-win seasons (Sim 5). They rank third in post-season appearances, with nine, and also third in 100+ run differential seasons, with five. Usually, the key to their success is outstanding pitching; they usually rank 1st or 2nd in runs allowed, making up for an offense that can be very good (second-best in Sim 10) to lousy (fourth-worst in Sim 7), but most often finishes 4th or 5th. The unpredictable offense means if the pitching slips even a little bit, as it does in Sim 3 (4th place) and Sim 4 (5th place), bad things happen. But if the pitching staff can hold it together and the offense clicks, the Rats could finally claim the World Series title that eluded their fabled predecessor.

MARIETTA MIGHTY MEN
prediction: 87-75 (4th), 828 rf (5th), 781 ra (5th), +47 margin (4th)
Owner David Landsman moved the team to Marietta this year, the second time this franchise has moved since its 2000 World Series title. Last year, when this franchise was based in Stanhope, the sims predicted the same fourth-place finish and fourth-best run-differential, and even the same exact record -- 87-75. But while those numbers look identical on the surface, the sims actually believe last year's squad was somewhat stronger than this year's Mighty Men, though they will still likely be a contender come playoff time. Last year's sims saw the Mighty Men reach the post-season nine times and never finish below .500; this year, they do post one sim with a losing record, and make the playoffs six times, which ranks sixth among all teams. (They also tie for 6th place twice, but miss out on the final wildcard berth each time on tiebreakers.) To be sure, it's still an impressive performance over the 10 sims, and in one season they accomplish something they never achieved in the '05 sims -- the league's best record, at 97-65, in Sim 7. But that's a bit misleading, as that Sim 7 ranks as the luckiest of any team in any sim, a whopping 12 wins better than the Pythagorean Won-Loss Record (85-77) suggested by their fifth-best +42 run margin. It's hard to know what to make of these Mighty Men, who have two ugly seasons (Sim 1 and Sim 3) where they finish with 81 and 80 wins, respectively; and then bounce back with that 97-win season in Sim 7. Most of the volatility comes from an offense that ranks 5th overall and finishes in the top 3 four times -- but also in the bottom 6 twice. Their offense is what will carry them to post-season glory, though, as their pitching staff is generally just ahead of the middle of the pack. Though they rank 5th overall, they only finish 4th once (Sim 4) and 5th once (Sim 8), with two stops each at 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th. It's impossible to guess how it will play out in the regular season, but it does appear Marietta will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt for a fourth-straight year.

NEWARK SUGAR BEARS
prediction: 86-76 (5th), 825 rf (6th), 795 ra (9th), +30 margin (6th)
The Sugar Bears will most likely reach the post-season -- but unlike last season, when the sims correctly predicted they'd cruise to a fifth-straight Hanover Division title, it looks like Newark will have a much tougher time of it in '06. While they do reach the post-season in seven of the 10 sims -- tied for fourth for most appearances -- two of those playoff berths come with asterisks, as they were won on tiebreakers after Newark tied for 6th place. (Although in each of those seasons, Newark's won-loss record is considerably "unluckier" than their run margin would suggest.) And while Newark does win the Hanover Division in Sim 3 (and ties for it in Sim 4), they also have two losing seasons -- including one where they finish in 10th place! Considering the Sugar Bears have never won less than 97 games in a season, their sim performance looks bleak indeed for the upcoming season. At first glance, the problem would appear to be the pitching staff, which averages out to a 9th-best 795 runs allowed, but ranges between 5th place and second-worst (twice!) over the 10 sims. However, it appears that the key for the Sugar Bears is, as usual, their offense. Regardless of how bad the pitching is, in the seven sims where the Sugar Bears finish in the top 6 in offense, they reach the post-season; in the three sims they stay home, their offense finishes 7th, 8th and 10th. Owner Butch Garretson will have to hope the Crunch rediscovers its Punch when the games start for real.

PHILADELPHIA ENDZONE ANIMALS
prediction: 80-82 (9th), 792 rf (8th), 784 ra (6th), +8 margin (9th)
These sims have taught us that almost anything can happen over the course of a 162-game season, let alone 10 of them. As a result, there's some wildly different results, with many teams showing a 10- to 15-game swing between their best season and worst season. But the Endzone Animals take this volatility to a whole 'nother level, with a 93-loss season, a 94-win season and just about everything in between. They have one of the "luckiest" sims on record, winning 11 more games than their Pythagorean Won-Lost Record in Sim 9; and also one of the "unluckiest," performing 9 wins worse than expected in Sim 4. In Sim 2, they have the best record in baseball; in Sim 3, they have the second-worst. I mean, what can you make of a pitching staff that finishes in the top 5 five times and the bottom 5 five times? Or an offense that finishes 1st in one sim -- but 8th overall? One theory: The Animals have one of the smallest active rosters (29 players) of any team in the sims, and more than a third of the roster -- 13 players -- are rated as injury prone. When there's no injuries, everything goes great and the team is a contender or very close to it, as they are in half the sims (1, 5, 6, 9 and 10); but when injuries strike, the roster doesn't have enough depth to cover for them, and the result is disaster. Assuming owner Anthony "Bocci" Pucci stays on top of the squad, and that he tabs the right free agents to fill the gaps, this team's performance should be closer to the front of the pack than to the back.

PHOENIX DRAGONS
prediction: 66-96 (13th), 681 rf (14th), 804 ra (10th), -123 margin (13th)
Last year, the sims predicted the Dragons would finish in 13th place -- and they did. This year, Mike Chan's squad is faced with the same gloomy prediction. For the second straight year, the sims predict the Dragons will finish in 13th place, thanks to the league's worst offense (681 runs scored) and fifth-worst defense (804 runs allowed), for a second-worst -123 run margin. The sims don't even afford the squad a glimmer of hope, seeing them finish in the bottom three in all 10 sims. Their "best" season is probably Sim 3, when they finish in 12th place with a 74-88 record and a -61 run margin. Their best asset is probably their rotation, which finishes among the top half teams in two sims (4th in Sim 1; 6th in Sim 9), but also dead last in Sim 10. The lineup's high water mark is Sim 8, when they're fourth from the bottom. Their run margin is never better than 11th, and only breaks into double-digit negatives three times (-61 twice, -93 once). There doesn't appear to be any chance that this could be anything but the ninth-straight losing season for Phoenix fans.

SOUTH BOSTON GANG
prediction: 79-83 (10th), 683 rf (12th), 724 ra (3rd), -41 margin (10th)
Paul Barbosa, one of the league's three remaining founding members, may have never won a World Series or even a division title, but he does lead the league in one category: team names! Barbosa started with the Newark Crimewave in '91, then became the Tampa Bay Sweat Sox from '92 to '94. After a three-year hiatus, he returned to the league for one year in 1997 as the Lisbon Diabos. Following another three years off, Barbosa took over another team and named it the Kentucky Hillbillies for two years, then changed the name to the Tijuana Banditos for a personal record four straight seasons. Now Barbosa adds a sixth team jersey to his closet as the team is redubbed the South Boston Gang. Through all the name changes, one pattern has held for Barbosa teams over the last five seasons: They're gone 256-231 and made the playoffs in every even-numbered year since 2000, but are 215-271 without a playoff appearance in odd-numbered years over the same period. The sims say there's a slight chance that pattern will hold in '06, as they make the playoffs twice (Sim 3, 5) with one near-miss (tied for 6th in Sim 2, they miss the post-season on a tiebreaker). But while their overall record over the 10 sims is just four games under .500, that drops them all the way to 10th place -- the same as their -41 run margin would suggest. Their best asset is their third-best pitching staff, which allows an average of just 724 runs over the 10 seasons, but their lineup stinks, finishing third-worst with 683 runs scored. All the more striking is how consistently good their defense is, and how consistently bad their offense is -- the batters finish in the bottom 3 in nine sims, and the pitchers finish in the top 3 in nine sims. The only exceptions are Sim 2, when the offense is fifth-worst; and Sim 10, when the pitching staff is sixth-best. If Vladimir Guerrero can get any kind of help from the rest of the lineup and give the pitchers something to work this, the Gang could be a dangerous opponent come playoff time. If not, they may be looking for yet another new home come '07.

VANCOUVER IRONFIST
prediction: 90-72 (3rd), 916 rf (1st), 807 ra (11th), +109 margin (2nd)
The Ironfist have traditionally been a pitching-oriented squad, with legendary hurlers like Greg Maddux, Dennis Eckersley and Bud Black to nine straight playoff appearances between 1993 and 2002. But in this year's sims, the Vans take the opposite approach, using a murderer's row lineup to demolish the opposition to the tune of the league's third-best record and second-best run margin. They are one of only two teams to make the post-season in each of the 10 sims, and also post the best record once and win the Morris Division twice. How good is the Fister offense? Well, they average 916 runs per season over the 10 sims, 71 runs more than runner-up Carolina. They lead the league in offense in every sim but two (Sim 2 and 3), and the top 6 offensive performances by any team over the course of the 10 sims are turned in by the Ironfist, including the only quadruple-digit season (1,005 runs scored in Sim 4). The Fisters average 5.6 runs per game over the 10 sims, and that's usually enough offense for any pitcher -- except for Sim 3, when the Vancouver defense manages to give up a third-worst 838 runs, 4 more than the offense scores. The pitching staff finishes 11th overall (807 runs allowed), but they usually hover right around the middle of the pack, with five finishes between 7th and 9th. Their best pitching season is Sim 7, when they finish fourth with 763 runs allowed, but they also have four bottom 5 performances, including a second-worst 867 runs in Sim 8. It remains to be seen if owner Yaro Zajac and manager Darren Daulton can stomach a season of 12-11 scores, but if it means another trip to the post-season, you'll hear no complaints from the fans in the Irondome.

WESTWOOD DEDUCTIONS
prediction: 76-86 (11th), 745 rf (11th), 819 ra (12th), -74 margin (11th)
After 2005's last-place 59-103 finish, there's nowhere to go but up for the Deductions, a franchise that had been alternating mediocre years with bad ones (78 wins in '01, 69 in '02, 79 in '03, 67 in '04) before last year's disaster. At first glance, it looks like the sims are predicting a season similar to '01 and '03, but a closer look reveals only two years (Sim 3 and 7) where they come within two games of the overall 76-86 projection. Instead, the Ducks bounce wildly between awful seasons (Sims 8, 9 and 10) and decent ones (Sims 1, 2, 4), including a playoff appearance in Sim 1 and near-misses in the other two. They're fairly balanced between offense and defense -- both pretty bad (745 runs scored for 11th place; 819 runs allowed for 12th place; -74 run margin for 11th place). But in Sim 4 they finish tied for 5th in runs scored (806), and they also crack the 800-run plateau in Sim 7, good enough for the seventh-best offense. On the other hand, they're in the bottom 5 in runs scored six times. The pitching staff shows the same pattern: 5th place in Sim 1 (754 runs allowed), and a 7th-place finish in Sim 7, but then in the bottom 5 in runs allowed seven times. Sims 1, 4 and 7 are clearly the highlights, as those are also the only seasons when they post positive run margins, and it almost certainly will take that kind of season for the Ducks to factor into the playoff race this year. That's because when things go south, like in Sims 6, 8, 9 and 10, it gets ugly very quickly, with a -176 run margin in Sim 10 and a 98-loss season in Sim 8. One also must note the Deductions are tied with South Boston as the "luckiest" team, performing 3 wins better than their Pythagorean Win-Loss Record would expect, a statistic that might cause some anxiety for team owner and number-cruncher extraordinaire David Schlossberg. But a little luck may be in order for this franchise, which has never reached the post-season or had a winning record.