2005 Diamond Mind Baseball League Predictions

March 14, 2005

1. Purpose
   To simulate 10 Diamond Mind Baseball seasons to observe the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams.
2. Methodology
   Using the post-draft rosters, 10 full seasons were simulated, using computer manager-selected lineups and pitching rotations.
   1. Accuracy Limitations
      1. The computer picked the lineups, starting rotations and bullpen assignments for every team. The computer tends to favor players with lots of at-bats and innings pitched, even if another player compiled better statistics in limited duty; human owners tend to do the opposite. Also, the computer doesn't change lineups or pitching charts except for injuries.
      2. The owners will be limited to a 25-man active roster, but the computer had access to every eligible player on a team's 40-man roster (as of Monday, March 14).
         
      3. Injuries were turned on, with the Injury Rating setting used. This is the same setting that will be used during the regular season, but injuries cannot be accurately projected for any given season.
      4. Transactions for injuries, trades and waiver-wire pickups were not simulated. Injured players were replaced by players already on that team's roster, not from the waiver wire.
      5. For the second straight year, each team has been assigned to "Neutral Park" as their home stadium. We could assume that each team will use the same home stadium they played in last season, but just a few teams changing parks before Opening Day could make the whole exercise moot. With every game in Neutral Park, the results should be fairly accurate across the board, but the use of different parks during the regular season will certainly affect team scoring.
3. Past Performance
   
   1. This is the fifth year the simulations have been tried. 
   2. Last year's sims got about half the teams right -- including a dead-on accurate call for the Hoboken Cutters (74-88). The sims also correctly predicted that the Arkansas Golden Falcons would have the league's best record and that Hoboken, the Hillsborough Destroyers and Westwood Deductions would be among the league's worst teams.
   1. Overall, the sims correctly picked five of the six playoff teams (Arkansas,  Stanhope Mighty Men, Carolina Mudcats, Newark Sugar Bears and Tijuana Banditos) and four of the five worst teams (Harrison Rats, Hoboken, Westwood and Hillsborough). Mediocrity was correctly predicted for the Vancouver Iron Fist and Columbia Rattlesnakes, though each team did perform slightly better than expected.
   2. The prediction of a poor performance by Hillsborough was particularly insightful as the team was coming off three straight playoff appearances. And picking Tijuana for a playoff berth seemed outright insane as the team had gone 66-96 the previous year!
      
   3. But the sims whiffed badly on the Phoenix Dragons, envisioning them as a potential playoff team at 86-76; they actually went 69-93. The 17-win differential was the largest of any team. And for the second straight year, the sims predicted the Philadelphia Endzone Animals would be dramatically better, and the Honolulu Sharks dramatically worse; yet each proved the sims wrong again.
   1. And while the sims were right about Newark and Carolina being among the league's best teams, they were wrong about how good each would be; Carolina was 11 wins better than expected, while Newark came up with a dozen more wins than the sims thought. The inverse was true for Hillsborough; the sims accurately predicted they wouldn't reach the playoffs for a fourth-straight season, but thought they'd be somewhere around 10th place with 74 wins; instead, they finished dead last with 63.
   4. Previous sim results: 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004.
      
4. This Year's Conclusions
   
   1. Meet the new boss... same as the old boss.
   1. The sims say the Newark Sugar Bears and Arkansas Golden Falcons again appear to be the best of their divisions. The Carolina Mudcats and Stanhope Mighty Men look like cinches to return to the post-season, despite predicted drop-offs in their win totals from last year.
   2. The sims also predict continued frustration for fans of the Westwood Deductions, Phoenix Dragons and Hoboken Cutters, and that the Tijuana Banditos -- who made the playoffs in 2000, 2002 and 2004, but not in 2001 or 2003 -- will continue their roller-coaster existence with a down year in 2005.
      
   2. But, if the sims are accurate, there could also be some surprises this year.
   1. The sims foresee the long-awaited resurgence of the Vancouver Iron Fist and a big turn-around by the Philadelphia Endzone Animals. But will this be the third straight year that the Endzone Animals are the sims' darlings, only to turn into roadkill when the games are played for real? The sims also give the newly-named Hillsborough Hired Hitmen and Las Vegas Rat Pack at least some chance at reaching the post-season.
      
   2. The biggest losers could be the Honolulu Sharks, who the sims predict will finish tied for 10th place, a major disappointment after back-to-back playoff appearances. The Columbia Rattlesnakes, who lost a special one-game playoff to reach the post-season for the first time in franchise history, are also expected to take a step backward this year.
      
   3. Overall, the sims don't see much parity in the league: Two teams dominate, followed by three teams that nearly always join them in the post-season; at the back of the pack are six teams with almost no shot of contention. That leaves just three teams battling it out in the middle ground around .500.
      
   1. The Morris Division appears to be much stronger top-to-bottom than their Hanover rivals. In fact, the sims forecast that four of the six playoff teams will come from the Morris, the first time since 2002 that each division hasn't sent three representatives. But you never know: Even the Deductions -- who post the league's worst record after the 10 simulated seasons are tallied -- reach the playoffs once.

ARKANSAS GOLDEN FALCONS
prediction: 99-63 (2nd), 953 rf (1st), 747 ra (3rd), +206 margin (1st)
The sims have no doubt that Golden Falcons will reach the playoffs for a DMBL-record 12th straight season. The Falcs are one of two teams to reach the post-season in every sim, never finishing worse than the No. 4 seed (when they go 88-74 in Sim 1 -- though their pythagorean won-loss record that season suggests they should have been more like 95-67). They post the best record in baseball four times, and win the Morris Division in six of the 10 simulated seasons. In Sim 4, they have one of the most dominant performances of any team, going 112-50 with a +295 run margin (984 runs for, 689 runs against). They are also one of just two teams to break the 1,000-runs scored plateau, accomplishing the feat in Sim 7 with 1,029 runs -- the most of any team in any simulated season. And they are the only team to never post a run margin below +100; in fact, their lowest is an impressive +151, in Sim 1. In fact, even though they finish two games behind Newark in the overall standings, their +206 run margin says they really are the best team, with a pythagorean won-loss record of 100-62. For three straight years, the Golden Falcons and Sugar Bears have met in the World Series, with Arkansas relying on superior starting pitching and Newark built around a high-powered offense. Intriguingly, the sims say this year the Golden Falcons have the best offense (953 runs scored) but "only" the third-best pitching staff, behind Philadelphia and Newark. 

CAROLINA MUDCATS
prediction: 83-79 (6th), 842 rf (4th), 796 ra (5th), +46 margin (6th)
The Mudcats have some great seasons (92-70 in Sim 5; +126 run margin in Season 7) and some awful ones (72-90 in Sim 8; -15 run margin in Sim 10). Overall, though, they appear to be the "worst of the best," finishing 6th in overall record (83-79), run margin (+46) and playoff appearances (7). But they never finish higher than the No. 3 seed -- and that happens just once -- and the three times they don't reach the playoffs, they aren't close. In 2003 and 2004, the Mudcats reached the post-season despite having a weak offense, thanks to their great pitching staff; this year, they're likely to be far more balanced, ranking 4th in runs for (842) and 5th in runs against (796), for a +46 run margin. In fact, except for Sim 10, when they score just 769 runs, the Mudcats' offense is far more stable than their pitching staff, which ranges from third-best (723 ra in Sim 7) to fourth-worst (882 ra in Sim 8). They rank in the top 5 for fewest runs allowed in seven of the 10 sims, and that's likely what they'll have to do if they want to reach the post-season for a third straight year.

COLUMBIA RATTLESNAKES
prediction: 72-90 (12th), 718 rf (13th), 814 ra (7th), -96 margin (12th)
Fans of this snakebitten franchise have waited a long time for a post-season appearance, and they came within a game of the promised land last season. But it looks like it will be a 14th straight year without a chance at a championship -- or even a winning season! In all 10 simulated seasons, the Rattlesnakes never finish at .500 and never reach the playoffs. Only two other teams -- the Dragons and the Sharks -- can match their consistency for failure over the course of the 10 simulations. The problem isn't pitching and defense -- they finish 5th or tied for 5th in half the simulations in fewest runs allowed, and overall rank 7th -- but their offense stinks. They finish in the bottom three in runs scored in all but two of the sims, and dead last twice. They average out to 718 runs scored per season, second-fewest in the league, and their -96 run margin ranks 12th. The lone highlight from their dreadful performance is Sim 3, when they come within two games of .500 (80-82) and tally a seventh-best -26 run margin. Other than that one season, however, even mediocrity appears beyond their grasp. 

TEAM	YR	W	L	PCT.	#	RF	RA	MGN	PYTH	PW	PL	DIF
Columbia	1	72	90	0.444	10T	728	862	-134	0.416	67	95	- 5
Columbia	2	74	88	0.457	11th	769	820	- 51	0.468	76	86	+ 2
Columbia	3	80	82	0.494	7th	739	765	- 26	0.483	78	84	- 2
Columbia	4	69	93	0.426	10T	680	807	-127	0.415	67	95	- 2
Columbia	5	66	96	0.407	14th	698	809	-111	0.427	69	93	+ 3
Columbia	6	73	89	0.451	12T	702	793	- 91	0.439	71	91	- 2
Columbia	7	66	96	0.407	11th	709	908	-199	0.379	61	101	- 5
Columbia	8	75	87	0.463	9th	746	801	- 55	0.464	75	87	0
Columbia	9	78	84	0.481	8T	675	747	- 72	0.449	73	89	- 5
Columbia	10	69	83	0.426	11T	731	832	-101	0.436	71	91	+ 2
Columbia	TOT	72	90	0.444	12th	718	814	- 96	0.438	71	91	-1

HILLSBOROUGH HIRED HITMEN
prediction: 78-84 (7-T), 798 rf (7th), 855 ra (11th), -57 margin (8th)
We extend a welcome handshake to Brent Campbell, returning to the league after a six-year hiatus. Campbell's teams -- the Scranton Sparrows and Louisiana Lightning -- reached the playoffs twice, in 1997 and 1998, and just missed in 1993 and 1996, when the team finished in 5th place -- but only the top four went to the big dance. But he appears to have his work cut out for him as he inherits a franchise that  has changed management as often as a Newark KFC, and finished dead last with 99 losses last season. Campbell got to work right away, bringing in a new name and mascot, hiring an all-new coaching staff led by Mike Greenwell, and making a blockbuster Draft Day trade with Arkansas. All these changes have left the sims absolutely flabbergasted. They reach the post-season in four of the 10 simulations, including an 88-win performance in Sim 7; but in five other simulations, they finish among the bottom five, including tying for the third-worst record in Sim 6, and a complete melt-down in Sim 10 (69-93, -157 run margin). The same holds for their offense and defense: In Sim 3 they rank 3rd in pitching, with just 750 runs allowed; in Sim 7 they rank 3rd in hitting, with 869 runs scored. But in no other sim do they crack the top five in either category, and overall they rank 7th in offense and 11th in defense. In all probability, however, the Hitmen appear to be more lucky than good; they have just one season where they score more runs than they allow (Sim 2), and the Pythagorean won-loss formula suggests they're the luckiest team across the 10 sims, picking up a league-high three "extra" wins than their run margin suggests. But, considering where the team finished last year, even the worst-case scenario would be a step in the right direction. In fact, if the sims' forecast of a 78-84 record is accurate, the Hitmen would tie with the Endzone Animals for most improved team, picking up 15 wins from the previous season. 

HOBOKEN CUTTERS
prediction: 73-89 (10T), 749 rf (11th), 819 ra (8th), -70 margin (9th)
If this prediction holds true, the Cutters will be struggling along with a most inglorious progression: 75 wins in '03, 74 in '04, and now 73 in '05. The Cutters have just one season of note, piecing together a .500 record in Sim 10; that's also the only season in which they post a positive run margin (+7). But they also fail to crack the 70-win plateau in three sims, including a 97-loss season in Sim 1. The problem isn't the defense, which is consistently mediocre: in seven of the 10 sims they finish 6th, 7th or 8th, and in the other three, they finish 9th, for an overall 8th-best 819 runs allowed. But the feast-or-famine offense is wildly unpredictable, twice scoring 800 runs (including a sixth-best 818 rf in Sim 2), and thrice failing to score 700 (including a last-place 685 runs scored in Sim 3). A mediocre pitching staff and an inconsistent lineup isn't a great combination, and the Cutters generally finish around 9th or 10th in both wins and run margin. They never finish higher than 8th place, which they accomplish twice (Sim 2, Sim 10). Compounding their problem, they're also unlucky: They're three or more games worse than the Pythagorean won-loss formula would suggest in three of the 10 sims. Ownership can take some comfort in the fact that the Computer Manager benched Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Dmitri Young, Cliff Floyd and spring training phenom Brady Clark.

HONOLULU SHARKS
prediction: 73-89 (10T), 786 rf (10th), 871 ra (13th), -85 diff (11th)
The Sharks have recently been one of the league's most tenacious teams, with a .504 record (245-241) and two post-season appearances over the last three seasons. Their M.O. has been a great pitching staff and a just-good-enough offense -- last year's team had the third-fewest runs allowed (736) and the second-fewest runs scored (711) -- but the sims say that won't be the case this season. The Sharks' offense is somewhat improved, finishing tied for fifth-worst with 786 runs scored, but it can be very good (scoring the 5th-most runs in Sim 7 and 9). The problem is, surprisingly, the pitching staff. The Sharks were one of the most generous teams in the sims, giving up a second-highest 871 runs. They are one of just two teams, Phoenix being the other, to give up 800 or more runs in all 10 simulations. The combination results in a fourth-worst -85 run margin; their "best" differential is a disappointing -40 in Sim 9. The mediocre offense is just good enough to keep the Sharks competitive in all but two of the sims (67-95 in Sim 5, 69-93 in Sim 10), but they never reach the playoffs or climb above .500 in any of the 10 sims -- a dubious feat only matched by Columbia and Phoenix. However, the Sharks can take solace in the fact that last year, the sims also pegged them to finish 73-89 -- but they went 83-79 and reached the post-season as the No. 5 seed. The sims also badly misjudged them in 2003, expecting them to finish with an eighth-best 78-84 record; they went a fifth-best 82-80. Can the Sharks devour the sims for a third straight time?

LAS VEGAS RAT PACK
prediction: 78-84 (7-T), 792 rf (9th), 863 ra (9th), -44 margin (7th)
The Rats, who moved from Harrison to Las Vegas this off-season, are tied with the Hitmen for 7th place, five games out of a playoff spot. And like Hillsborough -- which bounces around from 4th place to 12th over the course of the 10 sims -- the Pack's performance is very hard to pin down. They reach the playoffs twice -- tied for 4th in Sim 6, and taking 6th in Sim 8 -- and hit the 80-win plateau in half of the 10 sims. But they also finish among the bottom three teams in three sims, completely losing it with a 94-loss season in Sim 4. Also like the Hitmen, the Rat Pack's strengths and weaknesses seem to change with each sim. They finish among the top six offenses in half the sims, but among the bottom five in the other half! Their pitching staff is a little more consistent, finishing right around the middle of the pack in five of the sims, though they twice rank as the second-worst pitching staff (yet once finish third best). The all-or-nothing effect averages out to a deceptive 9th best in both runs for and runs against, with a 7th-best -44 run margin. One possible reason for the feast-or-famine effect: The Rats have just 25 eligible players on their roster, and an astounding nine of those players are rated "injury prone" by DMB. The short-handed Computer Manager was therefore unable to cope with any injuries -- a limitation that GM Eric Wickstrom won't face during the regular season. If that speculation proves correct, his team could very well be the No. 6 seed.

NEWARK SUGAR BEARS
prediction: 101-61 (1st), 933 rf (2nd), 741 ra (2nd), +192 margin (2nd)
The Sugar Bears look to have a great chance to defend their World's Championship, as they finish the sims with the best overall record at 101-61, two games ahead of the Golden Falcons. They are one of two teams -- the Falcs being the other -- to reach the post-season in all 10 sims. In fact, they post the best record in baseball five times and win their division nine times; the Golden Falcons finish second in each category (four and six, respectively). Newark wins the most games of any team in any sim (113-49 in Sim 2) and ties for second-most in Sim 5 (112-50). The lineup is vitamin-packed as usual (933 runs scored), though they have to settle for second, with 20 fewer runs than the Golden Falcons. The lineup finishes first or second, including one of the only two 1,000-run seasons in any sim (1,003 rf in Sim 2), except for an inexplicable seventh-place finish in Sim 7 (824 rf). Oddly enough, this year, their pitching staff -- usually the team's achilles' heel -- is also one of the best in baseball, yielding a second-best 741 runs, including two first-place finishes (677 ra in Sim 5, 707 ra in Sim 6). The pitching staff finishes in the top 5 in all but one season (Sim 3, when they're tied for 7th). The combination of offense and defense is good enough for a second-best +192 run margin, including five first-place finishes. Their "worst" seasons are Sim 3, when they finish in 4th with an 89-73 record (+82 run margin), and Sim 7, a third-best 93-69 mark (+91 margin). It appears certain that Newark will reach the post-season for a 10th straight time.

PHILADELPHIA ENDZONE ANIMALS
prediction: 91-71 (3rd), 815 rf (6th), 719 ra (1st), +96 margin (3rd)
In 2003, the sims forecasted the Animals would go 88-74 and finish in 4th; instead, they went 76-86, finishing 9th. Undaunted, the sims again saw a big season for them  last year, predicting they would tie for the second-best record in baseball with a 92-70 record; and again, they came up far short, posting an identical 76-86 record for another 9th place finish. Well, here we go again. The sims love the Animals and foresee them racking up 91 wins, reaching the playoffs in eight of the 10 simulated seasons, and only finishing with a losing record or a negative run margin once. Is this the kiss of death for Philly fans, who have yet to see a post-season appearance -- or even a winning record? On paper, anyway, the team certainly looks like they'll be competitive. They give up a league-fewest 719 runs over the 10 sims, finishing first in runs allowed in six seasons; actually, their only losing season comes in Sim 5, when their pitching staff completely falls apart, giving up a third-worst 847 runs. Their offense is a little more problematic, though certainly respectable: They finish among the top 6 teams in runs scored in seven of the 10 sims, for an overall average of 815 runs scored (6th). That produces a third-best +96 run margin, and they're in the top 5 in run margin in all but the disastrous Sim 5 (-50).

PHOENIX DRAGONS
prediction: 69-93 (13th), 732 rf (12th), 874 ra (14th), -142 margin (14th)
One could make an argument that the Dragons, despite having the second-worst record across the 10 sims, are actually the worst team in baseball. They are only one of two teams -- Columbia is the other -- to never reach the post-season or crack .500, and they give up more runs than they score in every simulated season. In fact, they're the only team to post greater than a -200 run margin -- and they do it twice, in Sim 1 (-206) and Sim 4 (-259)! Sim 4 is, by the way, the worst year of any team in any sim, as the Dragons go a woeful 58-104. The Dragons actually pull off a Triple Crown of sorts by giving up the biggest run differential of any team in any sim (-259 in Sim 4), scoring the fewest runs of any team in any sim (640 rs in Sim 4) and also allowing the most runs of any team in any sim (933 ra in Sim 10)... The Dragons offense ranks among the bottom three teams in six of the seasons, and only finishes out of the bottom five twice (8th in Sim 3, 9th in Sim 10). That'd be bad enough, if it also wasn't coupled with the fact that their pitching staff finishes last in half the sims, and in the bottom five in all but one (6th in Sim 6). Overall, their offense ranks third-worst (732 runs scored), their defense is dead last (874 runs allowed) and their run differential is a league-worst -142. It seems certain that Dragon fans will endure their eighth-straight losing season in Phoenix.

STANHOPE MIGHTY MEN
prediction: 87-75 (4th), 881 rf (3rd), 798 ra (6th), +83 margin (4th)
Most fans would be delighted with a 95-win season and a sixth straight post-season appearance, but M&M Nation was anything but pleased with the team's performance at the end of 2004. After loading up with veteran talent at the trading deadline in a bid to finally unseat the Sugar Bears, Stanhope was instead knocked out in the first round by the fifth-seeded Sharks. This year, the Matthew's Mighty Men of Stanhope appear to have another shot at the Hanover Division title that the Sugar Bears have been hoarding for four straight seasons. They finish with the league's fourth-best record (87-75), never finish under .500, and reach the post-season a third-best nine times; their one miss is a flukey Sim 7, when they go a respectable 85-77 but still finish in 8th place. They also win the Hanover Division once, going 93-69 in Sim 3. While they have an incredibly consistent offense -- they finish in the top 5 in runs scored in every season, and in the top 3 seven times -- the Mites' pitching staff could go either way. They're in the top 5 in fewest runs allowed in half of the sims, including two 2nd place finishes (Sim 3, Sim 10); but then they have three seasons where they finish 9th or worse. That inconsistency carries over to the run margin; while they're always in the black, the amount ranges from a razor-thin +1 (Sim 2) to a comfortable +144 (Sim 3). Overall, they average out to the third-best offense (881 rf), sixth-best defense (798 ra) and fourth-best run margin (+83) -- which all appear to be good enough to guarantee them another title shot.

TIJUANA BANDITOS
prediction: 76-86 (9th), 796 rf (8th), 868 ra (12th), -72 margin (10th)
Over the last five years, the Banditos have alternated between good years ('00, '02, '04) and bad ones ('01, '03). The sims predict the pattern will hold for 2005. When averaging the 10 sims, Tijuana goes a ninth-best 76-86, with 796 runs scored (8th) and 868 runs allowed (12th), for a -72 run margin (10th). The offense is consistently mediocre, finishing between 7th and 9th in every season but one; the pitching staff is the problem, finishing dead last three times, and in the bottom five in eight of the 10 sims. Everything falls apart in Sim 3, when they finish dead last (61-101) and allow a league-worst 151 more runs than they score. Yet those pesky Banditos -- who stole their way into the playoffs last season by beating Columbia in the 163rd game of the season -- do put it all together in Sim 10. In that magical year, they go 87-75, tying for the fifth overall record. That's the only year that  they reach the playoffs, break .500, or score more runs than they allow (+47 run margin). And in an amazing eight of the 10 sims, the Banditos win more games than their Pythagorean won-loss formula would suggest; in Sim 9, they go a seventh-best 81-81, despite a fourth-worst -104 run margin that suggested a record more like 71-91. They're three or more wins better than Pythagoras thinks in three other seasons. It could very well be evidence that Tijuana has some magic left over from their miraculous 2004 finish.

VANCOUVER IRON FIST
prediction: 86-76 (5th), 826 rf (5th), 755 ra (4th), +71 margin (5th)
After a two-year hiatus from the post-season, the Iron Fist appear ready to reclaim their place among the league's elite. The Iron Fist aren't a slam dunk for the playoffs, but they do post the fifth-best record (86-76), tie for the fourth-most playoff appearances (8), win the Morris Division twice (Sim 2, Sim 10), and never post a negative run differential. But they also finish below .500 three times (yet reach the playoffs anyway, with a sixth-best 79-83 record, in Sim 5). And those three sub-par sims appear to be flukes, as the team never posts less than 82 wins according to the Pythagoras won-loss formula. The Iron Fist's rotation is certainly up to the task, finishing in the top 3 in seven of the sims, and in the top 6 in the other three; overall, they average out to about 755 runs allowed per season, good for 4th place. The problem is an erratic offense that ranges from awesome (924 rf in Sim 2, tied for second) to awful (less than 800 rf in four of the 10 sims, and two 10th-place finishes). Overall, they average out to about 826 runs for, which would rank them as the 5th-best offense. When their offense is good, the defense is sharp enough to produce some impressive run margins (a second-best +190 in Sim 2; a third-best +144 in Sim 9); when the offense falters, the run margin slides toward mediocrity, with three sixth-place finishes -- which isn't too bad! Unless the offense completely falls apart, the Fisters should be able to force their way into the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

WESTWOOD DEDUCTIONS
prediction: 67-95 (14th), 717 rf (14th), 844 ra (10th), -127 margin (13th)
The sims don't like the Deductions much. In 2001, the sims predicted Westwood (then known as the Brooklyn Bean Counters) would win 73 games; they won 78. In 2002, the sims said 68 wins; Westwood beat 'em again, with 69. In 2003, the prognostication was 76 games; they came up with 79. And last year, the sims said 63 wins, and again they beat the projection -- with 67. OK, so the Deductions haven't exactly been shutting up the critics. But they almost can't help but to do better than this year's prediction, of a last-place finish with just 67 wins. A look inside the numbers suggests that the Ducks actually might be a little better than Phoenix, which has the league's worst run differential (Westwood is next-to-worst, at -127). And, in fact, Westwood does reach the playoffs -- as the No. 5 seed, no less -- in the flukey Sim 5. Everything falls into place for the Deductions that season; not only does Westwood have its best year (80-82), but it's also the worst sim recorded by Stanhope, Vancouver and Philadelphia! have their worst years. Sim 5 is the only season that the Deductions' offense finishes better than 10th place (they tie for 9th, with 779 runs for); even more impressively, their pitching staff has an outstanding season, giving up a fourth-fewest 797 runs. The combination is a sixth-best -18 run margin. Is this a once-in-a-million-years scenario, or does Westwood have the chance to be this good? The other nine sims say no way: They finish dead last  four times, and tie for last in another season; they're last in runs scored in half of the sims (and finish 10th or worse in all but Sim 5), and rank among the five worst pitching staffs in all but three sims. They have the worst run differential four times, and finish in the bottom 5 nine times. Overall, their offense ranks last, with just 717 runs for, and they never break the 800-run plateau. (In fact, in three seasons, they don't even score 700 runs.) Their pitching staff ranks 10th, giving up 800 or more runs in every season except that odd Sim 5 -- when they give up 797. It remains to be seen if Westwood fans will have to settle for yet another rebuilding year -- or if Sim 5 is a hint that this team is about to turn the corner.