2004 Yaro League Diamond Mind Baseball Predictions by Peter Gammons*

*actually by Butch Garretson

March 5, 2004

1. Purpose
   To simulate 10 Diamond Mind Baseball seasons to observe the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams.
2. Methodology
   Using the post-draft rosters, 10 full seasons were simulated, using computer manager-selected lineups and pitching rotations.
   1. Accuracy Limitations
      1. The computer picked the lineups, starting rotations and bullpen assignments for every team. The computer tends to favor players with lots of at-bats and innings pitched, even if another player compiled better statistics in limited duty; human owners tend to do the opposite. Also, the computer doesn't change lineups or pitching charts except for injuries.
      2. The owners will be limited to a 25-man active roster, but the computer had access to every eligible player on a team's 40-man roster.
      3. Injuries were turned on, with the Injury Rating setting used. This is the same setting that will be used during the regular season, but injuries cannot be accurately projected for any given season.
      4. Transactions for injuries, trades and waiver-wire pickups were not simulated. Injured players were replaced by players already on that team's roster, not from the waiver wire.
      5. This year, for the first time, every team was assigned to "Neutral Park" as their home stadium, rather than using the stadium they played in last season. The use of different parks will certainly affect team scoring.
3. Past Performance
   
   1. This is the fourth year the simulations have been tried. See the results for 2001 and 2002.

   2. Last year's sims correctly tabbed Newark as the league's strongest team and Arkansas finishing second, predicted the resurgence of Stanhope and Hillsborough, and proved accurate on two very controversial calls -- that Hoboken and Tijuana, who had both reached the playoffs the year before, would not return to the post-season in 2003. The Cutters finished at 75-87 -- two games better than the predictions -- while the sims correctly nailed the Banditos as the league's worst team. They also accurately predicted continued misery for fans of Columbia and Phoenix, and another mediocre finish for Brooklyn. But the sims were wildly off-target on Vancouver and Philadelphia, who were seen as being tied for the third-best team in the league, but neither reached the post-season. (It should be noted, however, that the Iron Fist missed by just a single game.) They also didn't have Honolulu or Carolina ranking among the top six teams, though both teams did show promise in te simulations. Finally, the sims also muffed Harrison, seeing improvement for 2002's worst team; instead, the Rats again piled up the losses, finishing with the league's second-worst record.
      
4. This Year's Conclusions
   
   1. Hold onto your jockstraps: It's going to be a wild season! The 10 simulated seasons average out to a ridiculous 10 teams finishing in ties! They also foretell of a wide disparity between the good (seven teams fighting for six playoff spots), the bad (six teams that finish 10 games or more under .500) and the ugly (one team finishes dead last in all but two seasons).

ARKANSAS GOLDEN FALCONS
prediction: 97-65 (1st), 870 rs (4th), 736 ra (2nd), +134 diff (1st)
The sims have no doubt that Golden Falcons will reach the playoffs for a DMBL-record 11th straight season for a chance to defend their world's championship. The Falcs are the only team to win 100 games in any season -- which they do twice. They post the best record in baseball in five of the 10 simulations (and tie for the best record once). In every other season, they rank either second or tied for second in the league. The team wins the Morris Division title seven times (plus one tie), and reach they reach the playoffs as the top wildcard seed in the other two seasons. The Featherheads offer a balanced attack behind the league's fourth-best offense and second-best pitching staff, finishing first in most runs scores in one season and first in fewest runs allowed in another. But although they have the league's best run differential (+134) over the 10 sims, the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula says they're about three wins luckier than the numbers say they should be. That would still give them the league's best record (94-68), but much closer to the rest of the pack.

CAROLINA MUDCATS
prediction: 87-75 (4-T), 784 rs (10th), 723 ra (1st), +61 diff (5th)
Put together the two teams tied for fourth place -- the Mudcats and the Newark Sugar Bears -- and you might just find the best team in the history of the DMBL. Newark ranks 1st in batting and 10th in pitching, while the Mudcats are their mirror image, finishing 1st in pitching and 10th in batting. Carolina's stingy defense leads the league in fewest runs allowed in six of the 10 seasons, and never finishes worse than fourth. In Sim #7, the 'Cats allow just 672 runs -- the best, by 21 runs, of any team in any season. But Carolina's offense ranges from good (twice finishing in the top 5) to awful (once finishing dead last). More often than not, they finish in the bottom 5, which is where they average out over the course of the 10 seasons. Their offense is more than good enough to keep them competitive, however, as they post positive run differentials in every season except two, and overall finish with a respectable fifth-place +61 diff. In their bets season (sim #1), they make the playoffs as the top wild-card seed, when their usually brilliant pitching (1st) is combined with their strongest-ever offensive showing (880 runs scored for 4th place), for a second-best +151 run differential and a 95-67 record. But they also have a clunker of a season (sim #10), when their pitching staff is "only" fourth-best (772 RA), not good enough to compensate for the league's third-weakest offense (742 RS). They reach the playoffs in eight of the 10 seasons, which is tied (with Tijuana) for the fifth-most appearances, and good pitching is said to stop good hitting when it comes to playoff time.

COLUMBIA RATTLESNAKES
prediction: 76-86 (8-T), 755 rs (12th), 804 ra (8th), -49 diff (9th)
The 1990s weren't a good decade for the Columbia franchise, and it doesn't look like the 2000s are going to be any better. The 'Snakes, who were known as the Columbia Crusaders when they were among the league's founders way back in 1991, are still waiting for their first post-season appearance -- or even their first winning season! But in all 10 simulated seasons, the Rattlesnakes never finish at .500 and never reach the playoffs. Overall, they're tied for eighth place. Their pitching staff is at least mediocre, averaging 804 runs allowed a season (8th place), which would allow them to be competitive if not for their offense. Columbia's run production ranks in the bottom 5 in every season except one, when they score a personal-best 784 runs, an eighth-place finish. Amazingly, that same season -- sim #10 -- is also the year that they have their personal best in terms of runs allowed -- 736, good enough for second place that year. But their run differential of +48 (fifth best that year) isn't good enough to reach the playoffs because the snake-bit franchise is astoundingly unlucky, finishing seven wins worse than the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula says they should be. They wind up two games out of sixth place and a playoff spot.

TEAM	YR	W	L	PCT.	#	RF	#	RA	#	DIFF	#	PYTH	PW	PL	DIFF
COL	1	79	83	0.488	7t	770	10	790	7	- 20	10	0.487	79	83	0
COL	2	76	86	0.469	9t	767	11	822	11	- 55	10	0.465	75	87	-1
COL	3	77	85	0.475	9	770	10	786	6	- 16	8	0.490	79	83	+2
COL	4	69	93	0.426	12t	759	11	833	9	- 74	11	0.454	73	89	+4
COL	5	74	88	0.457	9	711	12	799	7	- 88	11	0.442	72	90	-2
COL	6	79	83	0.488	7t	747	12	784	5	- 37	10	0.476	77	85	-2
COL	7	76	86	0.469	10	720	14	791	6	- 71	11	0.453	73	89	-3
COL	8	74	88	0.457	11	769	11t	888	11	-119	12	0.429	69	93	-5
COL	9	79	83	0.488	9	757	12	809	8	- 52	9	0.467	76	86	-3
COL	10	79	83	0.488	7	784	8	736	2	+ 48	5	0.532	86	76	+7
COL	TOT	76	86	0.469	8t	755	12	804	8	- 49	9	0.469	76	86	0

HARRISON RATS
prediction: 76-86 (8-T), 852 rs (5th), 905 ra (13th), +61 diff (5th)
The Rats are tied with the Rattlesnakes for 8th place, but whereas Columbia as generally consistent with a winning percentage around .470 from year to year, Harrison's 10 seasons averaged out to the same record by bouncing between awful years and decent ones, including one playoff appearance and a couple near misses. But either way, this looks like a fun season in Harrison, as the Rats appear destined to score a ton of runs and give up even more. The sims peg this offense as the league's fifth-best, scoring 852 runs, but they're even more prolific than that -- their average is pulled down by an inexplicably poor showing in sim #4 (760 rs). The Rats finish tied for third or better in offense four times and score 942 runs in sim #8, the fifth-most runs scored by any team over the 10 sims. But if the Rats want to compete, they'll have to find a way to make up for the league's second-worst pitching staff, which ranks among the bottom three in every sim except two (finishing 9th in one sim, and 10th in another). It's tough to score enough runs to make up for a pitching staff that generous, but the Rats find a way to do it three times, producing positive run differentials in sims #1, #8 and #10.

HILLSBOROUGH DESTROYERS
prediction: 74-88 (10-T), 798 rs (8th), 863 ra (11th), -65 diff (11th)
This team has had three homes in three years... and three trips to the post-season! For the first time since 2000, the Destroyers aren't under new ownership. And this season may also be the first time since 2000 that they won't be playing into September. The Destroyers are consistently awful, never winning more than 78 games, and only once winning less than 70 (when they go 67-95 in sim #10). The fault isn't with their offense, which is about average -- though they once (sim #6) rank as second-best and once (sim #10) rank as second-worst, they can usually count on a solid middle-of-the-pack performance. But the Destroyers' defense, which ranked sixth last year, probably won't be good enough to break out of the bottom five this year, according to the sims. Out of the 10 sims, there's just one season -- sim #6 -- in which the batters score more runs than the pitchers give up. But the Destroyers are extraordinarily unlucky that year, winning nine less games than they "should," according to the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula, and wind up in 11th place.

HOBOKEN CUTTERS
prediction: 74-88 (10-T), 798 rs (8th), 863 ra (11th), -65 diff (11th)
If the two teams tied for fourth -- Newark and Carolina -- could be combined into a powerhouse, the two teams tied for 10th could be combined into a... well, a mediocrity. Hillsborough's fair-to-middling offense (8th) can't do enough to make up for their defense (11th), while Hoboken is essentially the opposite, finishing 11th in batting and 9th in pitching. But whereas the Destroyers are pretty consistently bad, the Cutters have decent years (sim #3, #4, #8) and awful ones (sim #1, #5, #10) and the rest are somewhere in the middle. The Cutters are also maddeningly inconsistent when it comes to what their problem is. In four seasons, they rank in the bottom five in pitching; in five seasons, they rank in the bottom five in batting. But in sim #9, they score 852 runs (5th), and in sim #3, they actually lead the league in pitching, allowing just 705 runs. In three seasons, they finish sixth in run differential; but in four seasons, they finish 11th or worse. It's hard to say who the real Cutters are, but even at their best, they finish just short of the post-season.

HONOLULU SHARKS
prediction: 73-89 (12th), 720 rs (14th), 800 ra (7th), -80 diff (12th)
The Sharks have a great pitching staff, but not good enough to make up for the league's most anemic offense. They score just 720 runs. Once, they score just 607 runs -- by far, the weakest output of any team in any simulated season. Of the 11 lowest offensive outputs, five belong to the Sharks. They have the worst or second-worst offense in seven of the 10 seasons. The pitching staff would have to be extraordinarily good to make up for such a weak-hitting offense, but for the most part the Sharks' rotation is merely average, usually finishing around the middle of the pack -- not good enough. But, once, they put it all together -- in that magical year, sim #4, when they score their most runs of any season (808) and they give up their least runs of any season (734) for a sixth-best +74 run differential. That's good enough for a ticket to the post-season, tied for the fourth-best record. Is that one season a fluke, or does it represent an attainable goal for the Sharks this season?

NEWARK SUGAR BEARS
prediction: 87-75 (4-T), 913 rs (1st), 851 ra (10th), +62 diff (4th)
The Sugar Bears have never missed the post-season, but for the first time since 2000, they don't begin the year as the favorites to win the Hanover Division. But the sugar-coated lineup is once again fortified with extra vitamins and nutrients, leading the league with 913 runs scored (and the only team to surpass the 900-run mark). But they have to score that many runs if they want to be competitive, because their pitching staff is fifth-worst in the league, giving up 851 runs. That works out to a fourth-best +62 run differential and a sixth-most seven playoff appearances, but it doesn't leave much margin for error. Take sim #1, when the Sugar Bears score an unusually low 865 runs; that year, they finish 10 games under 500 and in a tie for 10th place. According to the sims, it does appear that the Sugar Bears will be able to bludgeon their way to their ninth playoff appearance. How far they get in the post-season will depend on if their pitching staff is good enough to survive a five- or seven-game series.

PHILADELPHIA ENDZONE ANIMALS
prediction: 92-70 (2-T), 892 rs (2nd), 769 ra (3rd), +123 diff (2nd)
For 12 years, the Morris Division came down to one of two teams: Vancouver or Arkansas. But as the Iron Fist have fallen into rebuilding mode, it appears that another team has risen to challenge the Golden Falcons. If any team can compare with the defending champions this season, it's the Endzone Animals. They're the only other team to rack up 10 post-season appearances, and they finish right behind the Golden Falcons in terms of winning percentage and run-differential. In fact, the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula says they should be 93-69 and the Golden Falcons should be 94-68 -- they're that close! The Endzone Animals' offense is slightly better than the Golden Falcons, while their pitching staff is a bit worse. (Both teams rank among the league's best on both sides of the ledger, however.) The Endzone Animals finish in the top four in run differential every season, and rank first four times, but they have the league's best record just once, in sim #6. So, will Arkansas's pitching stop Philly's hitting? The answer to that question could decide the Morris Division championship this season!

PHOENIX DRAGONS
prediction: 86-76 (6-T), 818 rs (7th), 783 ra (6th), +35 diff (7th)
Just one game separates the four teams between 4th place and 7th place -- meaning just one game could decide whether a team gets home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs, or whether it doesn't even make the big dance at all! Of the four contenders for the final three spots, the sims say Phoenix could be the team left without a chair when the music stops. The Dragons rank seventh in run differential (+35) and seventh playoff appearances (6), but in a league where the top six make the playoffs, seven is not a lucky number. But the Dragons can't be written off quite so easily. When this team puts it all together, they can be a formidable opponent -- as they demonstrate in sim #3 and #10, when they win the Hanover Division with the league's second-best record. But then there's the unmitigated disasters of sims #2 and #4. The same goes for the offense and the defense; they rank in the top 5 three times and in the bottom 5 three times. The pitching staff finishes third three times, but also third-worst once. The schizophrenia carries on to the run diffs, where the Dragons once rank second but twice rank 10th or worse. There's also the odd phenomena of sim #3, when the Dragons have the "luckiest" season of any team in over the 10 years, finishing 10 wins better than the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula; and then there's sim #6, where they tie for the fourth-most "unluckiest" season, seven wins worse than the formula says they should be. Who can figure these guys out? I guess we'll have to play out the season after all!

STANHOPE MIGHTY MEN
prediction: 92-70 (2-T), 889 rs (3rd), 780 ra (5th), +109 diff (3rd)
The Mighty Men have been in five of the last post-seasons, a run that included the World's Championship in '00. Aside from that one year, however, Stanhope has always finished behind Newark in the standings. The sims say that the Mighty Men are poised to claim their second-ever Hanover Division title and, perhaps, another World Series! Like the two teams ahead of them in the standings -- Arkansas and Philadelphia -- Stanhope features a well-balanced attack with the league's third-best offense and its fifth-best pitching staff, for a third-best +109 run differential. The Mites also reach the post-season a third-best nine times and win the Hanover Division in six of the 10 sims. The also post the best record in baseball once (sim #7), and have two seasons when the numbers say they should have (sims #2 and #9), when they lead the league in run differential as well as in defense. In fact, sim #2 is the "unluckiest" season of any team in the simulations, as they're 10 games worse than the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula. Stanhope has just one bad season -- sim #3, when nothing goes right and they finish four games under .500. Aside from that hiccup, all indications are the Mighty Men are primed for another title run in '04.

TIJUANA BANDITOS
prediction: 86-76 (6-T), 821 rs (6th), 779 ra (4th), +42 diff (6th)
Over the last four years, the Banditos have alternated between good years ('00, '02) and bad ones ('01, '03). It's an even-numbered year, so print the playoff tickets! Since the Banditos and the Dragons are virtually tied across the board, maybe a fact as odd as that one will be enough to put Tijuana over the top this season. The two teams are very similar, but the Banditos are just slightly better -- their offense scores 3 more runs over the course of the 10 seasons, and their pitching staff allows 4 fewer. Yes, just 7 runs over the course of 10 seasons separates these two teams! But those 7 runs could be the difference between 6th place and a playoff spot, and 7th place and an early winter vacation. The Banditos have eight playoff appearances, which ties them for fifth overall -- two ahead of Phoenix, and actually one better than the Sugar Bears. And although the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula says the Banditos are one win luckier than their record, it says the Dragons are, too, so that's a wash. The Banditos even have one season (sim #5) where they post the league's best record, and another (sim #3) when they lead the league in run differential. And although they never fall apart -- they finish below .500 just twice, the only two years when they give up more runs than they score -- they do run into trouble in years when their offense falls below the middle of the pack. But Bandito fans can count on their pitchers: The defense never never ranks worse than eighth, and in six seasons they finish in the top five in terms of fewest runs allowed.

VANCOUVER IRON FIST
prediction: 72-90 (13th), 787 rs (9th), 869 ra (12th), +35 diff (7th)
This mighty franchise had never finished below .500, and had missed just one post-season in 11-year history of the league -- until last year, when they finished a game out of the final playoff berth and three games under .500. Unfortunately, the sims predict things are going to get worse before they get better for the commissioner's squad. Even in their "best" seasons -- sims #1, #2 and #6 -- they finish several games under .500 and don't challenge for a post-season berth. And when things go wrong -- like in sim #8 -- they go really wrong, becoming the only team other than last-place Westwood to drop 100 games. The problem appears to be the defense, which ranks in the bottom 3 four times; but you could also blame the offense, which ranks in the bottom 5 five times. Whatever the cause, the Iron Fist post the league's worst run diff twice. Vancouver fans can take comfort in the fact that the last time the Iron Fist had to rebuild -- in 1992, when they finished 14 games out of a playoff spot -- they followed it up with back-to-back World's Championships. See you in '05, Fisters!

WESTWOOD DEDUCTIONS
prediction: 63-99 (14th), 725 rs (13th), 916 ra (14th), -191 diff (14th)
The team formerly known as the Brooklyn Bean Counters better hope that its luck changed with its name, because the sims weren't kind. In fact, they're predicting that the Deductions will be far and away the league's worst team this year, finishing 24 games behind Arkansas for the best record in baseball, 29 games behind Stanhope for the division title and 23 games out of the sixth and final playoff spot. Westwood has the three worst finishes of any team in sims #1, #4 and #8 -- the final a bad season of epic proportions. In that season, they lose 112 games, rank last in runs scored (682) and runs allowed (1020) and have a whopping -338 run differential, by far the worst of any team in any simulation this year. Is there any good news? Well, they don't finish last in sims #5 or #10, in which they finish 12th. And although they finish last in offense five times, they do creep up to ninth or 10th place in three of the simulations. But the Ducks never lose less than 90 games, and they finish in the bottom three in run differential in all 10 seasons.