2003 Yaro League Diamond Mind Baseball Predictions by Peter Gammons*

*actually by Butch Garretson

March 6, 2003

1. Purpose
   To simulate 10 Diamond Mind Baseball seasons to observe the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams.
2. Methodology
   Using the post-draft rosters, 10 full seasons were simulated, using computer manager-selected lineups and pitching rotations.
   1. Accuracy Limitations
      1. The owners will select different lineups/pitching charts than the computer did. The computer tends to favor players with lots of at-bats and innings pitched, even if another player compiled better statistics in limited duty; human owners tend to do the opposite.
      2. The owners will be limited to a 25-man active roster, but the computer had access to every eligible player.
      3. Injuries were turned on, with the Injury Rating setting used. This is the same setting that will be used during the regular season, but injuries cannot be accurately projected for any given season.
      4. Transactions for injuries, trades and waiver-wire pickups were not simulated. Injured players were replaced by players already on that team's roster, not from the waiver wire.
      5. Teams used the home parks they played in last year. Hillsborough, a new team, played in Neutral Park. Changing parks could have a significant impact on team scoring.
3. Past Performance
   
   1. This is the third year the simulations have been tried.
      1. In 2001, the pre-season sims went five-for-six on playoff teams, and guessed right on Carolina's remarkable turn-around. They also foresaw a weak season from Honolulu and that there'd be a mad scramble between 7th and 12th places. But they got it backwards when they predicted Philadelphia would be a possible contender, and tagged Phoenix as the league's worst team -- Philly finished last, while the Dragons (who changed stadiums after the sims were published) finished four games out of the post-season.

      2. Last year, the sims went four-for-four with the league's top teams and just missed with Hillsborough and Honolulu, predicting they'd finish within striking distance of the post-season. They also correctly pegged Harrison, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Columbia as non-contenders. However, the sims saw much better things for 10th-place Stanhope and eighth-place Carolina. The worst muff was on No. 6 Tijuana; the sims predicted they'd finish tied for ninth, five games out of the playoffs, though they did have two post-season appearances in the sims.
4. Conclusions
   
   1. The preseason sims predict a return of parity to the league: No team wins or loses 100 games, and all but three teams make at least one playoff appearance over the 10 simulated seasons.
   2. Although last year’s division champions stand head-and-shoulders above the rest of the pack, three of 2002’s worst teams also look like contenders for post-season berths.
   3. The sims also predict shockingly poor performances from two of last year’s best teams, and continued frustration for one snakebit squad.

ARKANSAS GOLDEN FALCONS
Home Stadium: Quisenberry Memorial Park (Custom)
The Golden Falcons have reached the playoffs in a DMBL-record 10 straight seasons, and the sims say that streak will continue at least one more year. In fact, the Falcons finish just one game behind the Sugar Bears with the league’s second-best record, 97-65 (.599), and a case could be made that Arkansas, not the defending champions, are the favorites this season: George Brett’s squad leads the league with a +178 run differential thanks to the No. 1 pitching staff (662 RA) and third-best offense (840 RF). Indeed, the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula (RF^2/RA^2+RF^2) indicates the Golden Falcons should really be a 100-win team, three games ahead of the Sugar Bears. Arkansas’s all-star rotation leads the league in fewest runs allowed five times – in fact, they rack up six of the simulations’ top eight pitching performances over the 10 seasons – and yield more than 700 runs just twice: 701 RA in Season #5, and 705 in Season #9… The Golden Falcons are the No. 1 seed in the playoffs three times – including, in Season #3, the sims’ best record (111-51) and highest run differential (+296) – and win the Morris Division seven times. They reach the playoffs in the other three seasons as well, claiming the top wild-card seed each year, even in Season #10, their “worst” year (90-72). The Golden Falcons are the only team to win 90 or more games in every season, they lead the league in fewest runs allowed five times, and neither their offense nor their defense ever finishes worse than fifth-best. They have the league’s best run differential four times and never finish lower than third in that category.

BROOKLYN BEAN COUNTERS
Home Stadium: Shea Stadium
With a little luck – and some more offense – the Bean Counters may be able to ride one of the league’s best pitching staffs into the post-season for the first time in franchise history. Brooklyn’s pitching staff was third-best overall (718 RA), with four seasons where they give up 700 or less runs, and they rank in the top five in fewest runs allowed in eight of the 10 seasons. But the Bean Counters were held back by the league’s second-worst offense (675 RF), for a 10th-place –43 run differential. Their overall record of 76-86 (.469) is tied for ninth-place, five games out of the playoffs, though they do reach the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in Season #3, going 80-82, and break .500 in Season #7 with an 82-80 mark. On the other hand, they lose 90 games in two seasons, and are the league’s third-worst team in Season #9. The most telling statistic? The Bean Counters are a post-season contender only in the three seasons they score 700 or more runs.

CAROLINA MUDCATS
Home Stadium: Bullhead Memorial Stadium (Busch Stadium)
The Mudcats are one of the league’s more unpredictable teams this season, with results ranging all the way from playoff team to league doormat. Overall, however, the outlook isn’t too bright as the Mudcats finish as the league’s fourth-worst team at 75-87 (.463), with the ninth-best offense (745 RF) and 10th-best pitching staff (793 RA) combining for an 11th-place –48 run differential. They lose 90 or more games three times, including a brutal 63-99 showing in Season #6. But there are some signs of life as Lenny Dykstra’s boys reach the playoffs in three seasons, and have their best year in Season #10 by going 10 games over .500 to claim the #4 seed in the playoffs. With seven ineligible players on their roster – the most of any team – and just three batters on the bench, the Mudcats were far more susceptible to injuries than most teams during the sims. Their season will largely come down to in-season transactions… and luck.

COLUMBIA RATTLESNAKES
Home Stadium: Crusader Park (Shea Stadium)
It’s looking like another unhappy season for Snake fans, who are still waiting for their franchise’s first post-season performance. Columbia ranks as the league’s second-worst team with a 71-91 mark (.438), thanks in large part to the league’s weakest offense (668 RF). It doesn’t help that the team also gives up the fourth-most runs (797 RA), for a second-worst –129 run differential – in fact, the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula indicates that the Rattlesnakes are actually the league’s “luckiest” team, winning four games more than they should have. At least they never finish last, though they do wind up with the second-worst record in six of the 10 seasons and rack up 90 or more losses in all but three of the simulations. A glimmer of hope: In three seasons, manager Gary Carter pulls together the pitching just enough to be at least average, and in Season #4 they give up just 735 runs, fourth-best in the league. Their hurlers also help lead them to their best performance in Season #9, when they finish in a tie for eight-place with a 79-83 record. But they finish last in offense six times and never higher than 12th.

HARRISON RATS
Home Stadium: The Landfill (Custom)
The sims don’t know what to make of last year’s worst team, with the results ranging from post-season to back of the pack, but usually settling on mediocre. The results average out to an 80-82 record, just one game out of the playoffs. They have the league’s ninth-ranked pitching staff (775 RA), but they’re hampered by the league’s third-worst offense (735 RF) for a ninth-place –40 run differential. They reach the playoffs in three of the 10 seasons and finish above .500 five times, including best campaign (Season #4) when they go 86-76 and claim the fourth-best record in the league, thanks to their best-ever offensive showing (796 RF). However, they also lose 90 games in one season, and finish among the league’s worst five teams in three sims. Interestingly, in Season #10, the Rats have the luckiest year of any team over the 10 seasons – they go 85-77 despite an atrocious –145 run differential, 19 wins better than the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula.

HILLSBOROUGH DESTROYERS
Home Stadium: Neutral Stadium
This franchise has reached the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, under two different owners. Now they’ve been re-acquired by Scott Boehler, who brought them back to Hillsborough – and, the sims say, will bring home a third-straight post-season appearance. The Destroyers are perhaps the most stolidly average team in the league this season, with the sixth-best record (81-81), the seventh-best offense (754 RF), the fifth-best pitching staff (730 RA), for a sixth-best +24 run differential. They finish at .500 or better in six of the 10 seasons and reach the post-season five times, twice as a No. 4 seed and three times as the No. 6. Their best showing is in Season #2, winning 89 games thanks to the league’s third-best run differential; their worst is in Season #4, going 75-87 to finish tied for 12th place thanks to their 10th-place pitching performance (812 RA), the only time in any of the sims their out of the top six in runs allowed.

HOBOKEN CUTTERS
Home Stadium: The Quarry at Cutter Field (Camden Yards)
The sims are foretelling one of the league’s up-and-coming franchises will take a step backward – a very big step! The Cutters, last year’s fourth-best team, fall all the way to 12th-place with a 73-89 (.451) record over the 10 seasons. Everything goes wrong for Wally Backman’s boys, who struggle with the league’s fourth-worst offense (737 RF) and third-worst pitching staff (808 RA), for a 12th-place –71 run differential. Their best year (Season #3) is the only time they reach the playoffs (as the five seed), the only time they break .500 (82-80) and the only time they produce a positive run differential (+18). In the other nine seasons, however, the results are grim: The Cutters drop 90 or more games four times, rank among the league’s bottom six teams eight times, and in their worst season (Season #9), finish in a last-place tie with a 64-98 record, while in Season #2 they finish in dead last after dropping 94 games. Does this astonishing prediction point to an undetectable flaw in Hoboken’s roster, or flaw in the prediction process itself? We’ll find out at the end of the season!

HONOLULU SHARKS
Home Stadium: The Shark Tank (The Ballpark in Arlington)
After missing the playoffs by one game last year, the Sharks are hungry for the post-season and hoping their rotation of young guns can lead them there. But the sims predict they’ll once again come up just short, targeting them for a 78-84 (.481) record – eighth-best, which goes nicely with their eighth-best offense (747 RF), eighth-best pitching staff (772 RA) and eighth-best run differential (-25). They’re just as consistent from season to season, finishing within four games of that 78-84 mark in every season but except one: Their poorest outing, Season #6, when they go 70-92 for the league’s third-worst record. Manager Gary Carter never gets his team to the post-season, but they do get tantalizingly close with seventh-place finishes in five seasons, including three seasons where they came up short despite positive run differentials. In their best season, they go 82-80 with the league’s sixth-best offense and defense -- but again miss the playoffs by just one game.

NEWARK SUGAR BEARS
Home Stadium: The Cereal Bowl (Yankee Stadium)
The Sugar Bears look ready to compete for an unprecedented third straight World’s Championship. Newark posted the league’s best record, going 98-64 (.605) mark – just one game better than Arkansas, but 15 games ahead of their nearest rival in the Enron Division – in spite of a pitching staff that finished a mediocre seventh in runs allowed (771). But they’ve got The Crunch With Punch: The Bears maul their opponents with the league’s best offense (936 RF), nearly 100 runs better than the second-best team, for a second-best +165 run differential. They led the league in runs scored in nine of the 10 seasons, and in their one miss, they finished in second – two runs behind. In fact, over the 10 seasons, just 13 teams finished with 900 or more runs scored – Arkansas once, Phoenix twice, and the Sugar Bears 10 times. Don Mattingly’s squad also leads the league in 100-win seasons, with four; posts the league’s best record six times; wins its division nine times; and reaches the playoffs in all 10 seasons. In their worst year, Season #4, the Sugar Bears go 88-74 to reach the playoffs as the No. 3 seed; in their best, Season #6, they go 104-58 with a league-leading +231 run differential. But their pitching staff is a glaring weakness, finishing seventh or worse in runs allowed six times and third-worst twice. Will this offensive juggernaut be able to pound its way to a third-straight title when faced with a top-notch pitching staff in a short series?

PHILADELPHIA ENDZONE ANIMALS
Home Stadium: The Eagle's Nest(Astrodome)
One of the most surprising results over the 10 simulated seasons was the impressive performance of the Animals, who leapfrog from last year’s third-worst team to one of this year’s best. Philly used three of its first four picks on pitchers, and the sims say that investment paid off: They had the league’s second-best pitching staff (671 RA), just 9 runs more than the vaunted Golden Falcons, and they finish first or second in pitching in eight of the 10 seasons. For a team managed by Steve “Bye-Bye” Balboni, they sure don’t generate much offense, however, finishing 10th in runs (740 RF), but their run-differential is still a third-best +69, and their 88-74 (.543) record makes them the No. 4 seed, five games ahead of fifth place. The Endzone Animals reach the post-season in nine of the 10 simulations, which ties them with Vancouver for third in most playoff appearances, and join last year’s division champions as the only squad to post run-differentials of +100 or more in three separate seasons. The Animals also are the only team, other than last year’s division champions, to post the league’s best record, accomplishing the feat in Season #8. They also win 98 games that year, the most of any season. However, they may have been even better in Season #7, when they went 94-68 with a league-leading +194 run-differential, good for 102 Pythagorean wins. In that year, their 614 runs allowed is the lowest of any team in any of the 10 simulated seasons, and they have their best offensive year, breaking the 800-run plateau for the only time. But that fair-to-middling offense could be their downfall: They finish 10th or worse in batting in six of the seasons, and seventh or worse in three more.

PHOENIX DRAGONS
Home Stadium: The Dragon's Lair (Kauffman Stadium)
The sims show little variation for Phoenix over the 10 seasons – they finish ninth or tied for ninth in four of the 10 seasons, and overall they wind up at 76-86 (.469) – tied for ninth, with Brooklyn. They score an impressive 842 runs, second only to the Sugar Bears, but give up an equally impressive 865 runs – more than any team except the Banditos. Their –23 run-differential is good for seventh place, better than their record would indicate, but nearly 50 runs worse than sixth-place Hillsborough. But you can never count out a team with a potent offense and Chewbacca for a manager. They top 800 runs in seven seasons, including two 900 run seasons, and in Season #5 they lead the league with 957 runs – the only team to finish ahead of the Sugar Bears in scoring in any of the 10 simulations. Their other 900-run campaign, Season #6, leads to their best season, their only playoff appearance and, in fact, the only time they win more games than they lose. Over the 10 seasons, the Dragons have just one year where they finish out of the bottom three in pitching – Season #10, the only time they give up less than 800 runs (799 RA).

STANHOPE MIGHTY MEN
Home Stadium: Stanhope Stadium (Yankee Stadium)
The ’00 World Series champions reached the playoffs the following year, but completely collapsed last season, finishing with the league’s fourth-worst record. The sims say Stanhope will be mighty once more, finishing with a 83-79 record (.512) thanks to a balanced attack – the league’s fourth-best offense (793 RF) and sixth-best pitching (768 RA), good for a fifth-place +25 run-differential. Buck Showalter takes the team to the post-season in eight of the 10 simulated seasons, and they break .500 six times (and finish at .500 twice) and once – in Season #4 – go 91-71 (.562) to win the Enron Division and breeze into the playoffs as the No. 2 seed. There are a couple dark clouds over Stanhope, however: They finish tied for ninth in Season #3, and slide all the way down into an 11th-place tie in Season #10. And though their pitching staff finishes sixth-best overall, they rank in the bottom five in five seasons, twice giving up more than 800 runs. All in all, however, it looks like the Mighty Men will be back in the post-season in ’03.

TIJUANA BANDITOS
Home Stadium: Hash Stadium (Shea Stadium)
In yet another shocker, ranking up there with Philadelphia’s rise and Hoboken’s fall, the sims go out on a limb and predict an astonishing collapse for last year’s sixth-best team. The Banditos post four of the five worst records over the 10 simulations, and they’re the only team to lose 100 games in a season – and they do it three times! Though Tijuana’s offense ranks a respectable sixth (772 RF), they give up an astounding 914 runs – 49 runs more than the 13th-place team. They give up 900+ runs in six seasons, including one year (Season #3) where they give up a seemingly impossible 994 runs. The result is the league’s worst run-differential (-142), and the league’s worst record at 68-94. The Banditos finish in last place in four of the 10 seasons, and once tie for 13th place. They post the league’s worst run-differential in six seasons, posting a –200 run-differential in Season #5 and, in Season #3, an all-time worst –230. In their best years – 76-86 in Season #4 to finish in 11th place, 73-89 in Season #6 to finish in 10th – manager Sid Fernandez gets just enough out of the pitching staff to allow the offense to club some teams into submission. Although the sims don’t paint a pretty picture, it should be noted that last year’s playoff appearance came after the ’02 sims predicted they’d finish in ninth place.

VANCOUVER IRON FIST
Home Stadium: The Irondome (Astrodome)
The dynasty continues as the sims predict a 10th-straight playoff appearance for the commissioner’s squad, but Iron Fist fans hear footsteps. Vancouver’s 10 seasons average out to an 89-73 (.549) record, a distant second in the Morris Division – eight games back of archrival Arkansas – but just one game ahead of upstart Philadelphia. But they’re a far more balanced team than Philly, combining the league’s fifth-best offense (776 RF) with its fourth-best pitching staff (719 RA) for a fourth-best +57 run-differential. Bud Black’s Fisters win two division titles, in Season #5 and Season #10; win 90+ games six times; and reach the post-season in nine of the 10 simulations. In their one season where they don’t reach the playoffs, however, they have an inexplicable and total breakdown, posting the league’s worst record (72-90) thanks to the simultaneous posting of their worst-ever offensive and defensive seasons (-58 run-differential). Aside from that aberration, however, the Iron Fist are a model of consistency, ranking sixth or better in runs allowed eight times, in runs scored six times and in run-differential nine times, including two seasons with run-diffs of +100 or better.