Games 1, 2,
5 and 7 are home games
for
the higher seeded team in this best-of-7 series. Injuries are turned
off
for the playoffs, meaning a player can be injured only for that
particular
game, but can return for the next game. Pitching rotations are on a
four-man
skip rotation, meaning the fourth starter will be skipped if the first
starter
is ready to pitch. Since there are off days after games 2, 4, 5 and 6,
some
game 1 starters will be available in game 4 on three days' rest.
Benched
starters can be moved to the bullpen.
The two teams that survive this
series
will go on to play the 14th annual DMBL World
Series.
Arkansas Golden Falcons (#2, 103-59) vs.
Vancouver Iron Fist (#3, 93-69)
The greatest
rivalry in sports resumes after a three-year hiatus! The marquee
match-up of the second round pits two of the most storied franchises in
DMBL history against each other: The Vancouver
Iron Fist,
who returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2002, and the Arkansas Golden Falcons, the Morris Division
champions for a fourth straight year. No two teams have faced each
other as often in the post-season as these two squads, who have met
four times in the World Series ('93, '94, '98, '99) and twice in the
second round ('00, '01). Arkansas 7, Vancouver 7. This second-round
showdown will be the tiebreaker for their post-season match-ups, as
each team has won two World Series and one second-round series when
facing each other. These two teams are so evenly matched when
head-to-head in the post-season, Vancouver has just a one-game
advantage in individual games (17-16). Their last match-up was 2001,
when the Iron Fist knocked out the Arks in a seven-game series to
advance to the World Series. Overall, the second round hasn't been kind
to the wildcard team, which has fallen to the division winner five
years in a row. On the other hand, the No. 3 seed upset the No. 2 seed
in the first three seasons this three-tier playoff format was adopted
in '97.
The Iron Fist finished 10 games
behind the Golden Falcons, but they're a formidable match-up for
Arkansas. The Fisters won 9 out of the 13 games against Arkansas this
year, splitting the six games at Quisenberry Memorial and an incredible
6-1 at home. Owner Yaro Zajac's Iron Fist also
won the final five contests between the
two teams this year.
But the Golden Falcons are eager for
a fourth-straight World Series appearance, and happy to go through the
arch-rival Iron Fist to do it. By almost any measure, the Falcs were
the league's second-best team this year: They were No. 2 in runs scored
(1042), No. 2 in runs allowed (737) and No. 2 in run differential
(+305). They also had the second-best road record (.593), second-best
division record (.654) and second-best record vs. righties (.626). And
they also ranked second in OPS (.850), runs created (1057.4), home runs
(238) and ERA (4.15). Owner Mike "Stump" Matiash
and manager George Brett hope second-best is
good enough to beat the No. 3 seed.
This year's Iron Fist team is a
classic Vancouver combination of a great pitching staff (3rd-best 771
runs allowed) and very good offense (5th-best 871 runs scored) for a
4th-best +100 run differential. Manager Darren
Daulton's squad led the first round in scoring (16 runs, 4.0 runs
per game, 7
HR) and was second in pitching (12 runs allowed, 2.75 ERA), for a
second-best +4 run differential. (Philly, which had the best run
differential at +5, was eliminated.)
The Golden Falcons offense is built around a 40-year-old
man who was perhaps the best hitter in baseball this year, if not
league history. Barry Bonds led the league in
runs created (213.4), OPS (1.306), walks (167), intentional walks (38),
secondary average (.775), RC/27 (18.8), AB/HR (9.1), slugging
percentage (.768), isolated power (.399), total average (1.823) and
TB+BB (525), and was second in batting average (.369), runs (152) and
home runs (51). He also set a new all-time record -- shattering his own
mark -- in OBP (.538). How much does Bonds mean to this offense?
Without him, the team's OPS drops from .850 to .801! Even more telling,
with Bonds in the lineup, the Falcs were the league's best team (.674
W%); in the 24 games he was out, they were 10-14 (.417). It doesn't
take a rocket scientist to figure out that you want to pitch around
Bonds, but batting coach Brian Harper has
stacked
the lineup to make that as difficult as possible, sandwiching Bonds
between Adrian Beltre (.307, .868 OPS, 34 HR,
126 RBI) and Lance Berkman (.311, .983 OPS, 24
HR, 86 RBI). The Falcs also return veterans Larry
Walker (.259, .818 OPS, 15 HR, 59 RBI), Ronnie
Belliard (.245, .626 OPS, 24 2B, 53 R) and Barry
Larkin (.305, .770 OPS, 26 2B, 84 R) and newcomers in first-rounder
David Wright (.293, .857 OPS,
14 HR, 40 RBI in 263 AB), seventh-rounder John
Mabry (.296, .858 OPS, 37 HR, 136 RBI) and supplemental draft pick
(#242 overall!) Jose Molina (.285, .722 OPS, 8
2B, 25 RBI in 193 AB).
This year's How
They Were Built article
shows that the Golden Falcons had more in-season acquisitions (13) than
any other post-season team. One addition the team hopes will keep
paying off is B.J. Surhoff. The 40-year-old
outfielder, signed as a free agent on May 8,
has become one of the team's best hitters, hitting .384 (.984 OPS) with
24 2B, 14 HR, 84 R and 74 RBI in 430 AB. Surhoff was just 20 plate
appearances shy of qualifying for the third-highest batting average in
league history (.3837), behind only Deion Sanders's
.384 in 1993 and the new league record of .398 set this season by
Newark's Carlos Guillen. Other pick-ups this
season include 3B/OF David Newhan (signed
March 19: .311, .814 OPS, 7 3B, 66 R in 373 AB), OF Wily
Mo Pena (signed March 20: .281, .966 OPS, 15 HR, 41 RBI in 160 AB),
OF Eric Byrnes (signed Aug. 12: .333, .869
OPS, 6 2B, 21 RBI in 90 AB) and C Javier Valentin
(signed March 7: .240, .685 OPS, 15 HR, 58 R in 413 AB).
Bonds, Berkman and Beltre may have
great numbers,
but you can't say "Killer
B's" in the DMBL without thinking of the Iron
Fist. The
fearsome combination of Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Jay Buhner
is long gone from Vancouver, but this year batting coach Andy Van Slyke
can call on the "Killer Z's": Victor Martinez (.295, .890 OPS, 42 2B, 131 RBI), David Ortiz (.282, .916 OPS, 28 HR, 97 RBI) and Eric Chavez (.247, .811 OPS, 26 HR, 112 R). The
rest of the lineup is a balance of youth, with SS Michael
Young
(.296, .793 OPS, 9 3B, 104 R), Jason Bay
(.240, .755
OPS, 25 HR, 75 RBI) and Lyle Overbay
(.285, .795 OPS, 53 2B, 103 R); and veterans, with 2B Jeff Kent
(.262, .782 OPS, 22 HR, 74 RBI), Steve Finley
(.257, .770 OPS, 36 2B, 78 R) and Moises Alou
(.271, .766 OPS, 17 HR, 66 RBI). But Vancouver's top hitter in the
first round may have been Jacque Jones,
who hit .364 (1.364 OPS) with 2 HR and 3 RBI... Daulton doesn't platoon
as heavily as
some other managers, but he always finds
a place for Ross Gload (.442, 1.142 OPS, 8 HR,
29 RBI in 156
AB vs LHP), and sometimes for Edgar Martinez
(.278, .770 OPS, 2 2B, 3 RBI in 18 AB vs LHP) and/or Torii Hunter (.258, .634 OPS in
97 AB vs LHP), when facing lefties.
But if those three get any work, it
will be coming off the bench, as the Golden Falcons aren't likely to
use any left-handed starters in the first round. Instead, they will
likely go with their three right-handed Ben McDonald Most
Valuable
Pitcher Award candidates: Roger
Clemens (21-5, 3.29
ERA,
12.2 R/9), Pedro Martinez
(20-7,
3.86 ERA, 12.0 R/9) and Curt Schilling (17-6,
3.77
ERA, 11.3 R/9). The only tough decision for pitching coach Bret Saberhagen will be what order to start them
in, and what to do if they need a fourth starter, since Jerome Williams (6-5,
4.86 ERA, 15.7 R/9) and Brad Penny (5-9, 6.07
ERA, 15.0 R/9) didn't look like playoff-caliber pitchers during the
regular season, and Kevin Brown (8-6, 5.27
ERA, 14.3 R/9) was released.
But you can forget all that talk
about being second-best when it comes to the Arkansas bullpen. They led
the league in save percentage (.745) and tied for the league lead in
saves (41). The 'pen is anchored by closer Brad Lidge (6-2, 31 SV, 3.47 ERA, 10.4 R/9), with
terrific setup work from Octavio Dotel (9-4, 2
SV, 4.04 ERA, 12.2 R/9) from the right side and Rheal
Cormier (4-4, 2.82 ERA, 10.8 R/9) from the left side. Mid-season
acquisitions Shingo Takatsu (1-0, 2 SV, 2.59
ERA, 13.2 R/9 in 25 games with Arkansas; 5-3, 3 SV, 3.32 ERA, 12.0 R/9
overall) and Ron Mahay (0-2, 3.21 ERA, 10.9
R/9 in 10 games with Arkansas; 3-5, 4 SV, 5.28 ERA, 13.5 R/9 overall)
provide additional depth.
The Iron Fist saved their best for
last in the first round, sitting Oliver Perez
(16-5, 3.86 ERA, 12.1
R/9, .613 QS%) until Game 3 and not using rookie Bobby
Madritsch (14-10,
4.27 ERA, 13.2 R/9, .500 QS%) at all. If that was because pitching
coach Dennis Eckersley was worried about
Stanhope's fourth-best 35-22 record (.614 W%) against lefties, he'll
really be nervous about Arkansas's league-best 31-16 (.660) mark. (Then
again, Arkansas had a second-best .626 W% against righties, so maybe
that doesn't matter too much.) But Eck won't hesitate to call on Greg Maddux (12-9, 4.51 ERA, 12.4 R/9, .406 QS%),
given his success against Stanhope in the first round (1 W, 2 ER, 7 H,
1 BB, 3 K, 9.0 IP) and his many battles already won against the Golden
Falcons during his Hall of Fame career. The
other options are Jake Peavy
(13-7, 4.47 ERA, 13.6 R/9, .563 QS%) and/or Ben
Sheets
(9-14, 5.64 ERA, 12.9 R/9, .387 QS%).
Vancouver also has a great closer in Billy Wagner (4-3, 33 SV, 2.81 ERA, 8.8
R/9), who retired all six batters he faced in the first round -- five
by strikeout. And they can also match the Golden Falcons when it comes
to a bullpen with two lefties, Damaso
Marte (1-1, 3.06 ERA, 11.7 R/9) and Eddie
Guardado (7-9, 2 SV,
4.03 ERA, 10.6 R/9), and two righties, LaTroy
Hawkins (1-0, 3.13 ERA, 11.3 R/9) and Ryan
Madson (1-3, 1 SV,
3.88 ERA, 11.6 R/9). But the Iron Fist go a little deeper, with middle
men Juan Cruz (10-4, 2 SV,
4.38 ERA, 13.3 R/9) and the recently-signed Trever
Miller (0 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6.2 IP). The Iron Fist 'pen ranked
first in
fewest inherited runners who scored (.255) and third in save percentage
(.696).
The bottom line:
Who can say? The outcome of Arkansas vs. Vancouver, like Rocky vs.
Apollo, fire vs.
water, tastes great vs. less filling, is always impossible to call. We
have no doubt this will be yet another epic series, a life-or-death
struggle that will go to the final out, and probably a 3-2 count, of
Game 7. For Matiash and Zajac, this is
the World Series. Speaking of which, no matter who wins, one bit of
DMBL history will remain unchanged for at least one more year: No DMBL
World Series has even been played that didn't include the Iron Fist
and/or the Golden Falcons.
Newark Sugar
Bears
(#1, 107-55) vs. Honolulu Sharks (#5, 91-71)
Compared to the Falcons-Fist match-up, the Newark Sugar Bears
and Honolulu Sharks rematch has about as much
juice as a Roseanne
Show reunion -- without John Goodman! The
Sharks are a fun team to root for and had a hot final stretch of the
season -- they went 26-15 over the final quarter (.634 W%), the
second-best winning percentage in baseball. Unfortunately, the team
with the best record was Newark (27-12, .692), which ran away with both
the division title and the No. 1 seed. Whichever team survives this
series will make history: It would be the first World Series appearance
ever not just for Adam Kozubal's Sharks, but
also for the "Class of 1997" (Carolina, Honolulu, Phoenix and Lisbon,
now Philadelphia, entered the league that year via an expansion draft).
Meanwhile, Craig "Butch"
Garretson is hoping his Sugar Bears will become the first team in
league history to ever play in five consecutive World Series. Last year
was the first post-season meeting between these two teams, and the
Sugar Bears won it in a thrilling seven-game series.
The Sharks have one thing going for
them: Destiny! In 2002, they missed the playoffs by one game; in 2003,
they reached the post-season but were eliminated in the first round; in
2004, they survived the first round but were knocked out in the second
round. The next logical step is a second round win and a World Series
loss, followed by taking the title in 2006. The Sharks also took 7 out
of the 13 games between the two clubs this year, including three out of
the final four games they faced each other.
Everything else, though, points the
Sugar Bears way. The top-ranked seed has never lost in the second round
series since the adoption of the three-tier playoff format in '97. The
Sugar Bears haven't lost in the second round since 1999. Four of the
seven games will be played in Newark, where the Sugar Bears tied for
the league's best home record (.679 W%). And the Sugar Bears not only
had the league's best record this season, but also were one of the
league's "unluckiest" teams, finishing 3 wins worse than their Pythagorean
winning percentage would suggest, and 5 wins worse than their
expected performance in one-run games. The Sharks, on the other hand,
were one of the league's "luckiest" teams, winning 6 more games than
Pythagoras would've predicted, and had 2 more wins in one-run games
than the numbers would suggest.
The Sharks feature a balanced attack,
ranking 6th
in run differential (+40) behind the league's seventh-best offense(829
RS) and fifth-best pitching (789 RA). But there's nothing balanced
about the Sugar Bear attack: They rank 9th in pitching (871 runs
allowed) but 1st in run differential (+392). The only way to do that is
to mash like crazy, and nobody mashes like the Sugar Bears. The Crunch
with Punch set a DMB Era record by
scoring 1263 runs this season, 165 more runs than the previous record
holder (who else but the Sugar Bears, who did it in '98). The Bears led
the league in batting average (.316), on-base percentage (.408),
slugging percentage (.531), OPS (.939), doubles (415), home runs (268),
runs created (1331.2), total average (.986), total bases plus walks
(4080) and even stolen base percentage (.864). They do strike out a lot
-- a league-high 1366 Ks -- but that's a consequence of manager Don Mattingly's "take a strike" approach, as they
also draw an incredible number of walks (918) and have the league's
best K:BB ratio (1.5). If they have a flaw, it's left-handed pitching;
though they were still a third-best 30-18 (.625 W%) against southpaws,
the team falls to 8th in batting average (.269), 6th in slugging
percentage (.453), 7th in doubles (93) and 6th in homers (57) -- but
they still lead the league in on-base percentage (.373) and walks
(265). They also can be sloppy in the field, with the league's lowest
team fielding percentage (.979) and tying for most errors (123) while
ranking tied for 4th in fewest double plays (143) and 5th in worst
stolen base percentage allowed (.687).
In
addition to breaking a modern record for team scoring, the Sugar Bears
also have two batters who set new marks this season. Carlos Guillen hit .398, the highest batting
average in league history; Bobby Abreu scored
184 runs and stole 29 out of 30 bases (.967 SB%), both league records.
Guillen's .398 goes along with a .461 OBP, .690 SLG, 1.151 OPS, 47 2B,
113 R and 107 RBI, while Abreu's runs and steals goes along with his
.350 BA, .463 OBP, .554 SLG, 1.017 OPS, 52 2B and 110 RBI. Both are
candidates for the Kevin Mitchell Most Valuable Batter Award, but
they'll get plenty of competition from teammates J.T.
Snow (.363, 1.005 OPS, 53 2B, 124 R), Gregg
Zaun (.353, .975 OPS, 30 2B, 78 RBI), Hideki
Matsui (.322, .948 OPS, 23 HR, 126 RBI), Jim
Thome (.316, 1.051 OPS, 41 HR, 148 RBI) and Manny
Ramirez (.282, .937 OPS, 48 HR, 161 RBI). Having good-but-not-great
seasons are Chipper Jones (.260, .816 OPS, 32
HR, 121 RBI) and Bill Mueller (.301, .846 OPS,
29 2B, 94 R). Batting coach Jim Eisenreich has
historically loved platoons, and this year is no exception: Just three
guys (Jones, Abreu and Ramirez) play every day. When a lefty is on the
hill, the Sugar Bears usually start Mike Piazza
(.242, .739 OPS in 124 AB vs LHP) at catcher, Nick
Johnson (.408, 1.113 OPS in 98 AB s LHP) at first, Marcus Giles (.284, .867 OPS in 141 AB vs LHP) at
second, Frank Menechino (.324, .945 OPS in 136
AB vs LHP) at short, Jayson Werth (.241, .854
OPS in 29 AB vs LHP) in center and Junior Spivey
(.356, 1.010 OPS in 90 AB vs LHP) at DH. Coming off the bench --
usually just for defense -- are C Michael Barrett
(.284, .704 OPS in 74 AB) and OF Milton Bradley
(.184, .555 OPS in 87 AB).
The "big three" in the Sharks lineup
are Miguel Tejada (.272, .777 OPS, 32 HR, 118
RBI), Jeff Bagwell (.283, .857 OPS, 16 HR, 51
RBI) and Sean Casey (.303, .889
OPS, 49 2B, 120 RBI), but they get things started with Johnny Damon (.299,
.890 OPS, 34 HR, 124 R), Jason Kendall
(.301, .376 OBP, 20 2B, 89 R) and Tony Womack
(.275, 62 R, 11 SB). Against righties, manager Gary Carter will
usually start Corey Koskie (.269, .952 OPS, 34
HR,
78 RBI), Kevin Mench (.205, but 32
HR, 91 RBI) and Shannon Stewart
(.248, .654 OPS, 7 HR, 51 R), while lefties usually means Joe Randa (.228,
.640 OPS in 149 AB vs LHP), Marquis Grissom
(.292, .860 OPS in
168 AB vs LHP) and Eric
Young (.254, .617 OPS in 142 AB). Coming off the bench are Jason Giambi (.286, .905 OPS in 14
AB) and Shawn Green (.284, .913 OPS, 6 HR in
81 AB), plus Luis A. Gonzalez (.317, .748 OPS
in 41 AB), Mike Lieberthal (.256, .735 OPS in
86 AB) and Jermaine Dye (.167, .786 OPS in 12
AB). The Sharks struggled to do anything on offense in the first round,
scoring just 10 runs. Damon had the best numbers of the big names
(.368, .876 OPS), but Tejada (.100, .350), Green (.063, .273) and
Bagwell (.077, .297) really struggled.
The Sharks got enough runs to win the
five-game
series against Philly thanks to some great pitching performances from
their rotation, particularly from aces Jason
Schmidt
(16-6, 3.02 ERA, 10.2 R/9) and Roy Oswalt
(15-11, 3.91
ERA, 12.7 R/9). Schmidt gave up just 1 earned run in 13 innings, while
Oswalt won both his starts while posting a 1.80 ERA, 10.8 R/9 in 15
innings. But who comes next? Pitching coach Randy
Myers has a tough decision to make as Kenny
Rogers (13-9, 4.81 ERA, 13.7 R/9), the third starter in the first
round, got pounded by the Animals (5 ER, 10 H, 3 BB in 5.2 IP). The
other options are Mark Mulder (12-11, 5.01
ERA, 13.9 R/9), Russ Ortiz (7-14, 6.08 ERA,
15.6 R/9) and Ted Lilly (1-0, 4.97 ERA, 12.1
R/9, but only in two starts). At the end of the game, the Sharks have
some trouble: closer Danny Kolb
(6-6, 28 SV, 4.11 ERA, 14.2 R/9) and middle men Kevin
Gryboski (6-7, 4 SV, 4.66 ERA, 14.8 R/9) and Julian
Tavarez (4-3, 2 SV,
7.49 ERA, 17.6 R/9) were inconsistent all season, and Danny Graves barely got any work at all (0 R, 3
H, 0 BB, 2 K in 4.2 IP). The best relievers were both lefties, Steve Kline
(4-1, 3 SV, 2.66 ERA, 10.1 R/9) and Kent Mercker
(7-3, 3 SV, 3.45 ERA, 11.9 R/9).
The Sugar Bears have just one starter who can go
toe-to-toe with Schmidt: Randy Johnson. The
big lefty went 19-9 with a 3.63 ERA, 10.6 R/9 and 265 Ks in 225.1 IP
this year, and even at age 41 he still has the stuff to dominate any
lineup. Behind Johnson, though, it's all up for grabs. Pitching coach Mike Grace could go with another southpaw in Wilson Alvarez (14-5, 4.89 ERA, 14.1 R/9), or
with right-handers Carl Pavano (13-6, 5.51
ERA, 14.8 R/9), John Thomson (14-9, 5.79 ERA,
15.0 R/9) or David Bush (17-4, 5.40 ERA, 14.7
R/9). The Sugar Bears will likely have to resort to their usual
strategy, score 10 runs and hope to take a lead into the late innings.
At that point, Mattingly and Grace can turn to anyone in their very
deep 'pen: John Smoltz (5-0, 4 SV, 4.27 ERA,
14.2 R/9), Keith Foulke (5-4, 9 SV, 4.93 ERA,
12.9 R/9), Akinori Otsuka (4-4, 8 SV, 3.76
ERA, 12.2 R/9) and Orber Moreno (9-4, 1 SV,
4.01 ERA, 11.3 R/9) from the right side, and Mike
Gonzalez (0-1, 9 SV, 3.98 ERA, 10.8 R/9 in 26 games with Newark;
4-4, 11 SV, 3.08 ERA, 10.6 R/9 overall) and Mike
Remlinger (2-1, 4 SV, 4.73 ERA, 15.8 R/9) from the left.
The bottom line:
On the cusp of making league history by playing in their fifth
consecutive World Series -- and a chance to win it for the second
straight time -- the Sugar Bears will consider this season a failure if
they don't get past the Sharks, division title and commissioner's cup
be damned. But after upsetting Philly in a five-game series to get
here, the Sharks aren't going to just go belly-up for the Sugar Bears.
And besides, they have that whole "team of destiny" thing going for
them -- the pattern suggests they'll win in the second round, lose in
the World Series, and then win the World Series next year. To fulfill
that destiny and win their first-ever second-round series, Honolulu
will have to steal a win in Newark, then pray the jet-lagged Sugar
Bears sleepwalk through the next two in Honolulu, so they can win the
series in five or six games -- because it's very hard to imagine the
Sharks winning a Game 7 in Newark with the Big Unit on the mound.
|