The games 1, 2 and 5 -- if necessary
-- will be home
games for the higher seeded team in this best-of-5
series. Injuries are turned off for the playoffs,
meaning a player can be injured only for that
particular game, but can return for the next game.
Pitching rotations are on a four-man skip rotation,
meaning the fourth starter will be skipped if the
first starter is ready to pitch. Since there are off
days off games 2 and 4, some game 1 starters will be
available in game 4 on three days' rest.
The top seed to survive this round
will take on the
No. 2 seed, the Morris Division champion Arkansas
Golden Falcons; the lower-seeded survivor faces the Hanover
Division
winner, the top-seeded Newark Sugar Bears.
Vancouver Iron Fist (#3, 93-69) vs.
Stanhope Mighty Men
(#6, 86-76)
The 3 vs. 6 matchup
is naturally assumed to be a mismatch -- the typical scenario is a
near-division winner taking out its frustration by pounding on a
post-season virgin. But
there's no virgins in this series -- the Vancouver
Iron Fist and Stanhope Mighty Men are
battle-hardened playoff
veterans hungry to get to the World Series again. Both
had to fight all the way down the stretch to get here -- the Iron Fist
were in a dogfight with the fourth-seeded Philadelphia
Endzone Animals for the No. 3 seed,
finally claiming it by a single game.
Meanwhile, the Mites rebounded from a mediocre first half (40-41) to
roar back into playoff contention by the end of July, but -- with six
games left in the season -- hadn't clinched a playoff berth until
sweeping a two-game series against the seventh-place Hoboken Cutters. Despite their long post-season
histories, these two teams have faced off just once in the playoffs. In
the
second round in 1998,
Vancouver won a thrilling seven-game series over the then-Jerusalem
Rabbis, blowing a 3 games to 1 lead before finally putting it away in Game 7.
Yaro Zajac's Iron Fist were
once the preminent team in Microleague Baseball, winning three of the
first four league championships. The Iron Fist carried their dominance
into the DMB Era, reaching the World Series four times between 1997 and
2001 -- but losing every year. Finally, after an astounding run of 10
straight playoff appearances between 1993 and 2002, the Iron Fist were
no-shows for two straight years before coming back in a big way this
season as the top-seeded wildcard team. Like the great Iron Fist teams
of the past, this year's squad balances a terrific pitching staff (771
runs allowed, 3rd-best in baseball) with a powerful offense (871 runs
scored, ranked 5th in the league) for a fourth-best +100 run
differential.
David
Landsman's Mighty Men are in the post-season for the seventh time
in eight
years, but they have a spotty playoff track record outside of their
2000 World Series title. They were eliminated in the first round, each
time as the No. 4 seed, in 2004, 2001 and 1999; they survived to the
second round in 2003 as the No. 3 seed and in 1998 as the No. 5 seed;
and, of course, they won it all as the top-seeded team in 2000. (So, in
first rounds, the Mites are 1-3 as the favorite and 1-0 as the
underdog, so maybe they prefer being the No. 6 seed!) Like the Iron
Fist, the Mighty Men feature a balanced attack (6th with 852 RF; 4th
with 784 RA; 5th with a +68 run differential).
Stanhope's offensive balance extends throughout
the lineup; no individual batter had a Kevin Mitchell Award-type season,
yet there are professional hitters from top to bottom. The most potent
hitter is probably 1B Todd Helton (.274, .870
OPS, 25 HR, 102 RBI), but there's also plenty of firepower coming from
RF Gary Sheffield (.278, .856 OPS, 30 HR, 116
RBI), SS Derek Jeter (.273, .747 OPS, 43 2B,
77 R), 3B Mike Lowell (.247, .743 OPS, 30 HR,
93 RBI) and CF Carlos Lee (.257, .714 OPS, 33
2B, 81 RBI). Manager Graig Nettles typically
platoons at the other four positions, splitting the catching duties
between Jorge Posada (.239, .717 OPS, 15 2B,
38 RBI in 326 AB vs RHP) and Charles Johnson
(.219, .856 OPS, 2 HR in 32 AB vs LHP); second base between Damion Easley (.277, .833 OPS, 50 2B, 52 RBI in
405 AB vs RHP) and Scott Hairston (.247, .899
OPS, 12 HR, 29 RBI in 150 AB vs LHP); left field between Brian Giles (.294, .821 OPS, 12 HR, 44 RBI in 419
AB vs RHP) and Eli Marrero (.410, 1.044 OPS,
24 2B, 20 RBI in 178 AB vs LHP); and the DH spot between Ken Griffey Jr. (.247, .872 OPS, 28 2B, 76 RBI in
352 AB vs RHP) and Brad Wilkerson (.264, .859
OPS, 7 HR, 31 RBI in 140 AB vs LHP).
The Iron Fist don't really have a
Mitchell Award candidate either, but they do have the favorite for the Pat Listach Rookie of the Year Award
with catcher Victor Martinez (.295,
.890 OPS, 36 HR, 131 RBI). In fact, this team gets most of its
production up the middle, with SS Michael Young
(.296, .793 OPS, 9 3B, 104 R) and 2B Jeff Kent
(.262, .782 OPS, 22 HR, 74 RBI). Lyle Overbay
(.285, .795 OPS, 53 2B, 103 R) and Eric Chavez
(.247, .811 OPS, 26 HR, 112 R) provide some pop from the corners, and
the outfield is rookie Jason Bay (.240, .755
OPS, 25 HR, 75 RBI) with veterans Steve Finley
(.257, .770 OPS, 36 2B, 78 R) and Moises Alou
(.271, .766 OPS, 17 HR, 66 RBI). The DH is one of the most feared
hitters in baseball, David Ortiz (..282, .916
OPS, 28 HR, 97 RBI). Manager Darren Daulton
doesn't platoon as heavily as some other managers, but he always finds
a place for Ross Gload (.442, 1.142 OPS, 8 HR,
29 RBI in 156
AB vs LHP) when facing southpaws. Daulton also has recently been
sitting
Ortiz and starting veteran Edgar Martinez
(.278, .770 OPS, 2 2B, 3 RBI in 18 AB vs LHP) at designated hitter, and
sometimes uses Torii Hunter (.258, .634 OPS in
97 AB vs LHP) over Alou when facing a portsider.
However, the Mighty Men are unlikely
to use a lefty
starter in this series anyway; their only southpaw starters are Mike
Hampton, who was banished to the minors after four starts (1-1,
6.62 ERA, 20.4 R/9 in 4 starts), and Shawn Estes,
who never even got out of the minors in the first place. Instead, Stanhope's likely ace
will be a guy who wasn't even a member of the team until July 1: Orlando Hernandez. After going a mediocre 9-7
(5.08 ERA, 14.2 R/9,
.400 QS%) for the Rat Pack, "El Duque" was traded to Stanhope for just
a 7th-round draft choice. As soon as he put on the Mighty Man uniform,
however, Hernandez started pitching like it was the year 2000
again, going 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA, 11.3 R/9 and a .750 QS% -- and
the team went 4-1 in his starts against playoff teams. No one else on
the team came close to claiming the title of "ace"; Matt
Clement had the next-lowest ERA by a starter, at 4.47 (12.5 R/9),
but he went 10-14 and a .484 QS%; Wade Miller
had the best record (16-8) and most quality starts (.576 QS%), but
posted a 4.72 ERA, 15.0 R/9; and A.J. Burnett allowed the fewest baserunners
(12.2 R/9), but went a mediocre 12-11 with a 4.57 ERA, .438 QS%. The
fifth starter is Tomo Ohka (11-12, 5.54 ERA,
15.3 R/9, .500 QS%), who probably won't warrant any consideration for
the post-season. If the Mighty Men want to throw a monkey in the
wrench, they could go with Kerry Wood (6-6,
5.53 ERA, 15.1 R/9 in 16 starts), Mike Mussina
(1-3, 2.16 ERA, 15.1 R/9 in 8 relief appearances) or Paul
Byrd (1-0, 2.89 ERA, 7.7 R/9 in two starts), but that doesn't seem
likely.
The Iron Fist have two top lefty
starters in Oliver Perez (16-5, 3.86 ERA, 12.1
R/9, .613 QS%) and Bobby Madritsch (14-10,
4.27 ERA, 13.2 R/9, .500 QS%), but they may not want to use them
against Stanhope -- a team that went a fourth-best .614 W%
(35-22) against southpaw starters this season. Considering that the
Mites posted a losing record (51-54) against righties, the Iron Fist
might be better served sitting at least one of the lefties in favor of Greg Maddux (12-9, 4.51 ERA, 12.4 R/9, .406 QS%),
Jake Peavy
(13-7, 4.47 ERA, 13.6 R/9, .563 QS%) and/or Ben
Sheets
(9-14, 5.64 ERA, 12.9 R/9, .387 QS%).
The battle of the bullpens is close, but the
Iron Fist probably come out on top.
Vancouver has a top-shelf closer
in Billy Wagner (4-3, 33 SV, 2.81 ERA, 8.8
R/9), a couple lights-out setup men in Damaso
Marte (1-1, 3.06 ERA, 11.7 R/9) and LaTroy
Hawkins (1-0, 3.13 ERA, 11.3 R/9), and middle relievers Eddie Guardado (7-9, 2 SV,
4.03 ERA, 10.6 R/9), Ryan Madson (1-3, 1 SV,
3.88 ERA, 11.6 R/9), Juan Cruz (10-4, 2 SV,
4.38 ERA, 13.3 R/9) and the recently-signed Trever
Miller (0 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6.2 IP). The Stanhope bullpen, on
the other hand, is a study in contrasts with DMBL legends Mariano Rivera (4-7, 29 SV, 3.96 ERA, 12.9 R/9)
and Trevor Hoffman (4-4, 3 SV, 3.68 ERA, 10.5
R/9) set up by rookies Yhency Brazoban (2-2, 2
SV, 2.69 ERA, 12.9 R/9), John Parrish (7-2, 1
SV, 4.32 ERA, 14.8 R/9) and Joe Horgan (4-4, 3
SV, 4.73 ERA, 14.5 R/9). The numbers favor the Iron Fist, who ranked
first in
fewest inherited runners who scored (.255) and third in save percentage
(.696), compared to 8th (.322 IR%) and 7th (.655 SV%) for the Mighty
Men.
The bottom line:
On paper, the Mighty Men look like a slightly inferior copy of the Iron
Fist, ranking just behind them in most categories. Yet they seem to
match up well against them, countering their two top starters in Perez
and Madritsch with a lefty-crushing lineup. And although the two teams
split their 12 games this season, the Mighty Men won six out of the
last eight contests, including taking three out of four during the last
week of the season (when the Mites had nothing to play for and the Iron
Fist were fighting for the No. 3 seed). Finally, while Vancouver has
home-field advantage, Stanhope actually did better on
the road (.543 W%) than at home (.519 W%) -- and that may be especially
true now that ownership announced the team will be moving this
off-season. And you never know what will happen in a short series.
While the odds favor the No. 3 seed in the first round -- they've lost
just twice, in 2001 and in 2004, since the three-tiered playoff format
was adopted in 1997 -- the Iron Fist have to be careful that their
long-awaited second-round rematch with the Golden Falcons isn't spoiled
by a first-round exit.
Philadelphia
Endzone Animals (#4, 92-70)
vs. Honolulu Sharks (#5, 91-71)
If there's a Cinderella team in this post-season, you'll
find it in this series. No, not the fifth-seeded Honolulu
Sharks -- they've been in
the post-season three straight years. It's the Philadelphia
Endzone Animals who
have never been here before, having finished above ninth-place for the
first time in their eight-year history. In fact, if history tells us
anything, it's that the No. 4 seed is the underdog in this series --
they've lost seven of the eight first-round series since the adoption
of the three-tiered post-season format in 1997.
The Sharks have methodically marched
toward a World Series appearance over the last four seasons. After
enduring 90+ loss seasons for
the first five years of its history, GM Adam
Kozubal turned the franchise around in '02, when the team went
80-82 and missed the playoffs by just one game. The year after that,
they went 82-80 but were knocked out in the first round. Last year,
they went 83-79 and survived to the second round. This year, after
going 91-71, the next logical step is the World Series. This year's
squad features a mediocre offense (829 runs scored, 7th place) and a
decent defense (789 runs allowed, 5th place) for a sixth-best +40
run-differential.
Things could only get better in
Philadelphia after their awful 102-loss season in 2000. Anthony "Bocci" Pucci started the laborious
rebuilding process by revamping the team's image, casting off its old
name, the Eagle Wings. The newly-minted Endzone Animals cut their
losses to 99 losses in '01 and then to 92 in '02. Things really began
to turn around in '03, when the pundits picked them to finish with the
league's fourth-best record. It didn't happen -- they were 9th,
with a 76-86 record -- but even that was another step in the right
direction. A year later, the preseason prognosticators again saw them
as a favorite, this time predicting they'd be the top
wildcard seed. Again, they finished in 9th with a 76-86 record.
This year, the sims predicted yet another third-place
finish, and they were wrong again -- but close enough! The
fourth-seeded Animals combine the league's best pitching staff (665
runs allowed, 1st place) with a pop-gun offense (789 runs for, 10th
place) for a third-best +124 run differential.
Philly's pitching staff will pose a problem to
any squad, particularly in a short series. In addition to leading the
league in fewest runs allowed, the Animal pitchers also were tops in
ERA (3.89), R/9 (11.6), OPS (.711) and QS% (.537), and tied for first
in K/9 (8.1) and K:BB (2.9). Their rotation is topped by two Ben McDonald Award candidates,
lefty Johan Santana (17-7, 3.02 ERA, 9.8 R/9)
and righty Brad Radke (18-8, 3.55 ERA, 10.7
R/9). Manager Steve "Bye Bye" Balboni will
likely choose Mark Prior (14-8, 4.36 ERA, 13.4
R/9) to start Game 3 over southpaw Doug Davis
(9-13, 5.00 ERA, 14.8 R/9) or rookie Zack Greinke
(9-11, 5.30 ERA, 12.0 R/9). The other options are Kris
Benson (1-3, 4.82 ERA, 15.4 R/9 in four starts) or minor leaguers Nate Robertson or John
Patterson, neither of whom had any DMBL appearances this season.
The Sharks do have a Big Ben
candidate of their own in ace Jason Schmidt
(16-6, 3.02 ERA, 10.2 R/9), who edged Santana for the ERA title (3.018
to 3.023); they also finished first and second in the standings in
batting average (Schmidt .197, Santana .216), slugging percentage
(Santana .356, Schmidt .369), runners per 9 (Santana 9.8, Schmidt
10.2), quality start percentage (Schmidt .710, Santana .697) and OPS
(Santana .626, Schmidt .644). Unless his arm is falling off -- or
there's a sweep -- Schmidt will start two games this series. But what
about the other three? Roy Oswalt (15-11, 3.91
ERA, 12.7 R/9) isn't as close to Radke as Schmidt is to Santana, but he
can certainly keep his squad in the ballgame. For a third starter,
manager Gary Carter could turn to Kenny Rogers (13-9, 4.81 ERA, 13.7 R/9), Mark Mulder (12-11, 5.01 ERA, 13.9 R/9) or Ted Lilly (1-0, 4.97 ERA, 12.1 R/9 in two starts)
-- unlike most post-season teams, Philly isn't significantly better
against southpaws (.569 vs LHP, .568 vs RHP). The only other option is
right-hander Russ Ortiz, who was pounded
regularly this year (7-14, 6.08 ERA, 15.6 R/9).
At the end of the game, the Philly
pitching staff also has an edge with closer Armando
Benitez
(6-7, 30 SV, 2.03 ERA, 10.0 R/9), set up by Francisco
"K-Rod" Rodriguez (5-4, 2 SV, 2.63 ERA, 10.2 R/9, 11.8 K/9), Kiko Calero (3-4, 4 SV, 4.06 ERA, 9.6 R/9, 10.2
K/9), Ricky Bottalico (3-0, 2.15 ERA, 8.9 R/9)
and Brendan Donnelly (3-2, 1 SV, 6.23 ERA,
15.2 R/9, 11.6 K/9). But
the Animals' secret weapon may be set-up man Juan
Rincon, acquired from Las Vegas for Chris
Capuano and a 6th round pick. Rincon, who went 2-3 with 2 saves and
10 holds (3.34 ERA, 9.3 R/9, 12.3 K/9) in 62 games with the Rat Pack,
went 3-2 with 1 save and 5 holds (1.69 ERA, 10.1 R/9, 11.3 K/9) in 22
games with the Animals. Since the Animals don't have a southpaw
reliever, Rincon's ability to shut down lefty batters (.164 BA, .527
OPS in 55 AB) could make him the most important reliever in their
'pen... The Sharks have the opposite problem, as their two best
relievers are both lefties -- Steve Kline
(4-1, 3 SV, 2.66 ERA, 10.1 R/9) and Kent Mercker
(7-3, 3 SV, 3.45 ERA, 11.9 R/9). The right-handed relievers have
struggled, though, starting with closer Danny Kolb
(6-6, 28 SV, 4.11 ERA, 14.2 R/9). There's no relief from Kevin Gryboski (6-7, 4 SV, 4.66 ERA, 14.8 R/9) or
Julian Tavarez (4-3, 2 SV,
7.49 ERA, 17.6 R/9) either. If there's cavalry on the horizon, it might
be Danny Graves, who looked sharp in three
appearances at the end of the season (0 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 4.2 IP).
Last year,
the Sharks were the team with the anemic offense (13th), but they moved
up six spots in the offensive standings this year thanks to solid
production throughout the lineup. This team has a lot of guys who can
get things started: CF Johnny Damon (.299,
.890 OPS, 34 HR, 124 R), C Jason Kendall
(.301, .376 OBP, 20 2B, 89 R), 2B Tony Womack
(.275, 62 R, 11 SB) and LF Shannon Stewart
(.248, .654 OPS, 7 HR, 51 R). The heavy lumber is swung by 1B Sean Casey (.303, .889 OPS, 49 2B, 120 RBI), SS Miguel Tejada (.272, .777 OPS, 32 HR, 118 RBI),
DH Jeff Bagwell (.283, .857 OPS, 16 HR, 51
RBI), 3B Corey Koskie (.269, .952 OPS, 34 HR,
78 RBI) and RF Kevin Mench (.205, but 32
HR, 91 RBI). Against Santana, the Sharks will likely sit Bagwell in
favor of Marquis Grissom (.292, .860 OPS in
168 AB vs LHP), Koskie for Joe Randa (.228,
.640 OPS in 149 AB vs LHP), and Stewart for Eric
Young (.254, .617 OPS in 142 AB). Coming off the bench are Luis A. Gonzalez (.317, .748 OPS in 41 AB), Mike Lieberthal (.256, .735 OPS in 86 AB) and Jermaine Dye (.167, .786 OPS in 12 AB) -- oh
yeah, and Jason Giambi (.286, .905 OPS in 14
AB), one of the most dangerous reserves in baseball.
<>Philly's fifth-worst offense obviously isn't as
deep as Honolulu's, but they have two hitters unmatched by anyone in
the Shark lineup: 1B Albert Pujols (.309, .969
OPS, 39 HR, 127 RBI) and LF J.D. Drew (.322,
.994 OPS, 34 HR, 126 R). But outside of those two, the only other
Philly batter with even decent numbers is CF Matt
Lawton (.298, .849 OPS, 22 HR, 92 R); no other regular topped an
.800 OPS or .260 BA! The rest of the lineup is C Paul
Lo Duca (.248, .626 OPS, 31 2B, 55 R); 2B Ray
Durham (.256, .796 OPS, 8 HR, 32 R in 203 AB); 3B Scott Rolen (.238, .754 OPS, 26 HR, 95 RBI); SS Khalil Greene (.201, .543 OPS, 9 2B, 19 R in 189
AB); RF Juan Rivera (.254, .737 OPS, 3 HR, 5
RBI in 63 AB) and DH Justin Morneau (.243,
.777 OPS, 23 HR, 73 RBI). Against lefties, Balboni will sit Rivera for Jose Guillen (.205, .569 OPS in 176 AB vs LHP)
and Morneau for Mike Lamb (.342, .940 OPS in
111 AB vs LHP). The bench is Vernon Wells
(.231, .613 OPS, 3 HR, 16 RBI in 156 AB), Brian
Roberts (.217, .563 OPS in 92 AB) and Damian
Miller (.213, .608 OPS in 47 AB).
>
The bottom line:
The Endzone Animals took eight out of the 12 games against the Sharks
this year, but this could be a tough match-up for them. The Sharks are
the hotter team right now -- they had the second-best record in
baseball over the fourth quarter of the season (26-15), and took two
out of their final three games against Philadelphia. They have a true
ace in Schmidt to counter Santana, a tough Game 2 match-up with Oswalt
facing Radke, and Giambi to come off the bench against a team without a
left-handed reliever. On the other hand, the Sharks don't have a batter
like Pujols or Drew who can carry them through the playoffs -- their
best hitter, Tejada, hit just .272 with a .777 OPS during the regular
season and will have to step that up in the post-season (not an easy
task against the Philly pitching staff). Furthermore, the Animals have
home-field advantage, and they took five out of the six games they
played in the Eagle's Nest. For the Sharks to have a chance in this
series, they'll have to "break serve" by taking Games 1 or 2 in Philly,
then hope to take advantage of their jet lag by sweeping the next two
in Honolulu.
Newark Sugar
Bears (#1, 107-55) and Arkansas Golden Falcons (#2, 103-59)
Meanwhile, division
champions Newark Sugar Bears and Arkansas Golden Falcons get to sit this round
out.
Arkansas will face the lowest-seeded team that
survives
the first round, meaning Newark will face the Mighty Men if they pull
off the upset, or
the winner of the Philly/Honolulu match-up if Vancouver survives.
During the bye week, the Falcs will stay
sharp by
playing scrimmages against 4 Way Lock and Door, while the
Sugar Bears
will take on the Livingston Little League all-stars.
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