Preview: The Wild Card Round

The games 1, 2 and 5 -- if necessary -- will be home games for the higher seeded team in this best-of-5 series. Injuries are turned off for the playoffs, meaning a player can be injured only for that particular game, but can return for the next game. Pitching rotations are on a four-man skip rotation, meaning the fourth starter will be skipped if the first starter is ready to pitch. Since there are off days off games 2 and 4, some game 1 starters will be available in game 4 on three days' rest.

The top seed to survive this round will take on the No. 2 seed, the Morris Division champion Arkansas Golden Falcons; the lower-seeded survivor faces the Hanover Division winner, the top-seeded Newark Sugar Bears.

Vancouver Iron Fist (#3, 93-69) vs. Stanhope Mighty Men (#6, 86-76)

Vancouver Iron FistStanhope Mighty MenThe 3 vs. 6 matchup is naturally assumed to be a mismatch -- the typical scenario is a near-division winner taking out its frustration by pounding on a post-season virgin. But there's no virgins in this series -- the Vancouver Iron Fist and Stanhope Mighty Men are battle-hardened playoff veterans hungry to get to the World Series again. Both had to fight all the way down the stretch to get here -- the Iron Fist were in a dogfight with the fourth-seeded Philadelphia Endzone Animals for the No. 3 seed, finally claiming it by a single game. Meanwhile, the Mites rebounded from a mediocre first half (40-41) to roar back into playoff contention by the end of July, but -- with six games left in the season -- hadn't clinched a playoff berth until sweeping a two-game series against the seventh-place Hoboken Cutters. Despite their long post-season histories, these two teams have faced off just once in the playoffs. In the second round in 1998, Vancouver won a thrilling seven-game series over the then-Jerusalem Rabbis, blowing a 3 games to 1 lead before finally putting it away in Game 7.

Yaro Zajac's Iron Fist were once the preminent team in Microleague Baseball, winning three of the first four league championships. The Iron Fist carried their dominance into the DMB Era, reaching the World Series four times between 1997 and 2001 -- but losing every year. Finally, after an astounding run of 10 straight playoff appearances between 1993 and 2002, the Iron Fist were no-shows for two straight years before coming back in a big way this season as the top-seeded wildcard team. Like the great Iron Fist teams of the past, this year's squad balances a terrific pitching staff (771 runs allowed, 3rd-best in baseball) with a powerful offense (871 runs scored, ranked 5th in the league) for a fourth-best +100 run differential.

David Landsman's Mighty Men are in the post-season for the seventh time in eight years, but they have a spotty playoff track record outside of their 2000 World Series title. They were eliminated in the first round, each time as the No. 4 seed, in 2004, 2001 and 1999; they survived to the second round in 2003 as the No. 3 seed and in 1998 as the No. 5 seed; and, of course, they won it all as the top-seeded team in 2000. (So, in first rounds, the Mites are 1-3 as the favorite and 1-0 as the underdog, so maybe they prefer being the No. 6 seed!) Like the Iron Fist, the Mighty Men feature a balanced attack (6th with 852 RF; 4th with 784 RA; 5th with a +68 run differential).

Todd HeltonStanhope's offensive balance extends throughout the lineup; no individual batter had a Kevin Mitchell Award-type season, yet there are professional hitters from top to bottom. The most potent hitter is probably 1B Todd Helton (.274, .870 OPS, 25 HR, 102 RBI), but there's also plenty of firepower coming from RF Gary Sheffield (.278, .856 OPS, 30 HR, 116 RBI), SS Derek Jeter (.273, .747 OPS, 43 2B, 77 R), 3B Mike Lowell (.247, .743 OPS, 30 HR, 93 RBI) and CF Carlos Lee (.257, .714 OPS, 33 2B, 81 RBI). Manager Graig Nettles typically platoons at the other four positions, splitting the catching duties between Jorge Posada (.239, .717 OPS, 15 2B, 38 RBI in 326 AB vs RHP) and Charles Johnson (.219, .856 OPS, 2 HR in 32 AB vs LHP); second base between Damion Easley (.277, .833 OPS, 50 2B, 52 RBI in 405 AB vs RHP) and Scott Hairston (.247, .899 OPS, 12 HR, 29 RBI in 150 AB vs LHP); left field between Brian Giles (.294, .821 OPS, 12 HR, 44 RBI in 419 AB vs RHP) and Eli Marrero (.410, 1.044 OPS, 24 2B, 20 RBI in 178 AB vs LHP); and the DH spot between Ken Griffey Jr. (.247, .872 OPS, 28 2B, 76 RBI in 352 AB vs RHP) and Brad Wilkerson (.264, .859 OPS, 7 HR, 31 RBI in 140 AB vs LHP).

The Iron Fist don't really have a Mitchell Award candidate either, but they do have the favorite for the Pat Listach Rookie of the Year Award with catcher Victor Martinez (.295, .890 OPS, 36 HR, 131 RBI). In fact, this team gets most of its production up the middle, with SS Michael Young (.296, .793 OPS, 9 3B, 104 R) and 2B Jeff Kent (.262, .782 OPS, 22 HR, 74 RBI). Lyle Overbay (.285, .795 OPS, 53 2B, 103 R) and Eric Chavez (.247, .811 OPS, 26 HR, 112 R) provide some pop from the corners, and the outfield is rookie Jason Bay (.240, .755 OPS, 25 HR, 75 RBI) with veterans Steve Finley (.257, .770 OPS, 36 2B, 78 R) and Moises Alou (.271, .766 OPS, 17 HR, 66 RBI). The DH is one of the most feared hitters in baseball, David Ortiz (..282, .916 OPS, 28 HR, 97 RBI). Manager Darren Daulton doesn't platoon as heavily as some other managers, but he always finds a place for Ross Gload (.442, 1.142 OPS, 8 HR, 29 RBI in 156 AB vs LHP) when facing southpaws. Daulton also has recently been sitting Ortiz and starting veteran Edgar Martinez (.278, .770 OPS, 2 2B, 3 RBI in 18 AB vs LHP) at designated hitter, and sometimes uses Torii Hunter (.258, .634 OPS in 97 AB vs LHP) over Alou when facing a portsider.

However, the Mighty Men are unlikely to use a lefty starter in this series anyway; their only southpaw starters are Mike Hampton, who was banished to the minors after four starts (1-1, 6.62 ERA, 20.4 R/9 in 4 starts), and Shawn Estes, who never even got out of the minors in the first place. El DuqueInstead, Stanhope's likely ace will be a guy who wasn't even a member of the team until July 1: Orlando Hernandez. After going a mediocre 9-7 (5.08 ERA, 14.2 R/9, .400 QS%) for the Rat Pack, "El Duque" was traded to Stanhope for just a 7th-round draft choice. As soon as he put on the Mighty Man uniform, however, Hernandez started pitching like it was the year 2000 again, going 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA, 11.3 R/9 and a .750 QS% -- and the team went 4-1 in his starts against playoff teams. No one else on the team came close to claiming the title of "ace"; Matt Clement had the next-lowest ERA by a starter, at 4.47 (12.5 R/9), but he went 10-14 and a .484 QS%; Wade Miller had the best record (16-8) and most quality starts (.576 QS%), but posted a 4.72 ERA, 15.0 R/9; and A.J. Burnett allowed the fewest baserunners (12.2 R/9), but went a mediocre 12-11 with a 4.57 ERA, .438 QS%. The fifth starter is Tomo Ohka (11-12, 5.54 ERA, 15.3 R/9, .500 QS%), who probably won't warrant any consideration for the post-season. If the Mighty Men want to throw a monkey in the wrench, they could go with Kerry Wood (6-6, 5.53 ERA, 15.1 R/9 in 16 starts), Mike Mussina (1-3, 2.16 ERA, 15.1 R/9 in 8 relief appearances) or Paul Byrd (1-0, 2.89 ERA, 7.7 R/9 in two starts), but that doesn't seem likely.

The Iron Fist have two top lefty starters in Oliver Perez (16-5, 3.86 ERA, 12.1 R/9, .613 QS%) and Bobby Madritsch (14-10, 4.27 ERA, 13.2 R/9, .500 QS%), but they may not want to use them against Stanhope -- a team that went a fourth-best .614 W% (35-22) against southpaw starters this season. Considering that the Mites posted a losing record (51-54) against righties, the Iron Fist might be better served sitting at least one of the lefties in favor of Greg Maddux (12-9, 4.51 ERA, 12.4 R/9, .406 QS%), Jake Peavy (13-7, 4.47 ERA, 13.6 R/9, .563 QS%) and/or Ben Sheets (9-14, 5.64 ERA, 12.9 R/9, .387 QS%).

Billy WagnerThe battle of the bullpens is close, but the Iron Fist probably come out on top. Vancouver has a top-shelf closer in Billy Wagner (4-3, 33 SV, 2.81 ERA, 8.8 R/9), a couple lights-out setup men in Damaso Marte (1-1, 3.06 ERA, 11.7 R/9) and LaTroy Hawkins (1-0, 3.13 ERA, 11.3 R/9), and middle relievers Eddie Guardado (7-9, 2 SV, 4.03 ERA, 10.6 R/9), Ryan Madson (1-3, 1 SV, 3.88 ERA, 11.6 R/9), Juan Cruz (10-4, 2 SV, 4.38 ERA, 13.3 R/9) and the recently-signed Trever Miller (0 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6.2 IP). The Stanhope bullpen, on the other hand, is a study in contrasts with DMBL legends Mariano Rivera (4-7, 29 SV, 3.96 ERA, 12.9 R/9) and Trevor Hoffman (4-4, 3 SV, 3.68 ERA, 10.5 R/9) set up by rookies Yhency Brazoban (2-2, 2 SV, 2.69 ERA, 12.9 R/9), John Parrish (7-2, 1 SV, 4.32 ERA, 14.8 R/9) and Joe Horgan (4-4, 3 SV, 4.73 ERA, 14.5 R/9). The numbers favor the Iron Fist, who ranked first in fewest inherited runners who scored (.255) and third in save percentage (.696), compared to 8th (.322 IR%) and 7th (.655 SV%) for the Mighty Men.

The bottom line: On paper, the Mighty Men look like a slightly inferior copy of the Iron Fist, ranking just behind them in most categories. Yet they seem to match up well against them, countering their two top starters in Perez and Madritsch with a lefty-crushing lineup. And although the two teams split their 12 games this season, the Mighty Men won six out of the last eight contests, including taking three out of four during the last week of the season (when the Mites had nothing to play for and the Iron Fist were fighting for the No. 3 seed). Finally, while Vancouver has home-field advantage, Stanhope actually did better on the road (.543 W%) than at home (.519 W%) -- and that may be especially true now that ownership announced the team will be moving this off-season. And you never know what will happen in a short series. While the odds favor the No. 3 seed in the first round -- they've lost just twice, in 2001 and in 2004, since the three-tiered playoff format was adopted in 1997 -- the Iron Fist have to be careful that their long-awaited second-round rematch with the Golden Falcons isn't spoiled by a first-round exit.

Philadelphia Endzone Animals (#4, 92-70) vs. Honolulu Sharks (#5, 91-71)

Philadelphia Endzone AnimalsHonolulu SharksIf there's a Cinderella team in this post-season, you'll find it in this series. No, not the fifth-seeded Honolulu Sharks -- they've been in the post-season three straight years. It's the Philadelphia Endzone Animals who have never been here before, having finished above ninth-place for the first time in their eight-year history. In fact, if history tells us anything, it's that the No. 4 seed is the underdog in this series -- they've lost seven of the eight first-round series since the adoption of the three-tiered post-season format in 1997.

The Sharks have methodically marched toward a World Series appearance over the last four seasons. After enduring 90+ loss seasons for the first five years of its history, GM Adam Kozubal turned the franchise around in '02, when the team went 80-82 and missed the playoffs by just one game. The year after that, they went 82-80 but were knocked out in the first round. Last year, they went 83-79 and survived to the second round. This year, after going 91-71, the next logical step is the World Series. This year's squad features a mediocre offense (829 runs scored, 7th place) and a decent defense (789 runs allowed, 5th place) for a sixth-best +40 run-differential.

Things could only get better in Philadelphia after their awful 102-loss season in 2000. Anthony "Bocci" Pucci started the laborious rebuilding process by revamping the team's image, casting off its old name, the Eagle Wings. The newly-minted Endzone Animals cut their losses to 99 losses in '01 and then to 92 in '02. Things really began to turn around in '03, when the pundits picked them to finish with the league's fourth-best record. It didn't happen -- they were 9th, with a 76-86 record -- but even that was another step in the right direction. A year later, the preseason prognosticators again saw them as a favorite, this time predicting they'd be the top wildcard seed. Again, they finished in 9th with a 76-86 record. This year, the sims predicted yet another third-place finish, and they were wrong again -- but close enough! The fourth-seeded Animals combine the league's best pitching staff (665 runs allowed, 1st place) with a pop-gun offense (789 runs for, 10th place) for a third-best +124 run differential.

Radke and SantanaPhilly's pitching staff will pose a problem to any squad, particularly in a short series. In addition to leading the league in fewest runs allowed, the Animal pitchers also were tops in ERA (3.89), R/9 (11.6), OPS (.711) and QS% (.537), and tied for first in K/9 (8.1) and K:BB (2.9). Their rotation is topped by two Ben McDonald Award candidates, lefty Johan Santana (17-7, 3.02 ERA, 9.8 R/9) and righty Brad Radke (18-8, 3.55 ERA, 10.7 R/9). Manager Steve "Bye Bye" Balboni will likely choose Mark Prior (14-8, 4.36 ERA, 13.4 R/9) to start Game 3 over southpaw Doug Davis (9-13, 5.00 ERA, 14.8 R/9) or rookie Zack Greinke (9-11, 5.30 ERA, 12.0 R/9). The other options are Kris Benson (1-3, 4.82 ERA, 15.4 R/9 in four starts) or minor leaguers Nate Robertson or John Patterson, neither of whom had any DMBL appearances this season.

The Sharks do have a Big Ben candidate of their own in ace Jason Schmidt (16-6, 3.02 ERA, 10.2 R/9), who edged Santana for the ERA title (3.018 to 3.023); they also finished first and second in the standings in batting average (Schmidt .197, Santana .216), slugging percentage (Santana .356, Schmidt .369), runners per 9 (Santana 9.8, Schmidt 10.2), quality start percentage (Schmidt .710, Santana .697) and OPS (Santana .626, Schmidt .644). Unless his arm is falling off -- or there's a sweep -- Schmidt will start two games this series. But what about the other three? Roy Oswalt (15-11, 3.91 ERA, 12.7 R/9) isn't as close to Radke as Schmidt is to Santana, but he can certainly keep his squad in the ballgame. For a third starter, manager Gary Carter could turn to Kenny Rogers (13-9, 4.81 ERA, 13.7 R/9), Mark Mulder (12-11, 5.01 ERA, 13.9 R/9) or Ted Lilly (1-0, 4.97 ERA, 12.1 R/9 in two starts) -- unlike most post-season teams, Philly isn't significantly better against southpaws (.569 vs LHP, .568 vs RHP). The only other option is right-hander Russ Ortiz, who was pounded regularly this year (7-14, 6.08 ERA, 15.6 R/9).

At the end of the game, the Philly pitching staff also has an edge with closer Armando Benitez (6-7, 30 SV, 2.03 ERA, 10.0 R/9), set up by Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez (5-4, 2 SV, 2.63 ERA, 10.2 R/9, 11.8 K/9), Kiko Calero (3-4, 4 SV, 4.06 ERA, 9.6 R/9, 10.2 K/9), Ricky Bottalico (3-0, 2.15 ERA, 8.9 R/9) and Brendan Donnelly (3-2, 1 SV, 6.23 ERA, 15.2 R/9, 11.6 K/9). Juan RinconBut the Animals' secret weapon may be set-up man Juan Rincon, acquired from Las Vegas for Chris Capuano and a 6th round pick. Rincon, who went 2-3 with 2 saves and 10 holds (3.34 ERA, 9.3 R/9, 12.3 K/9) in 62 games with the Rat Pack, went 3-2 with 1 save and 5 holds (1.69 ERA, 10.1 R/9, 11.3 K/9) in 22 games with the Animals. Since the Animals don't have a southpaw reliever, Rincon's ability to shut down lefty batters (.164 BA, .527 OPS in 55 AB) could make him the most important reliever in their 'pen... The Sharks have the opposite problem, as their two best relievers are both lefties -- Steve Kline (4-1, 3 SV, 2.66 ERA, 10.1 R/9) and Kent Mercker (7-3, 3 SV, 3.45 ERA, 11.9 R/9). The right-handed relievers have struggled, though, starting with closer Danny Kolb (6-6, 28 SV, 4.11 ERA, 14.2 R/9). There's no relief from Kevin Gryboski (6-7, 4 SV, 4.66 ERA, 14.8 R/9) or Julian Tavarez (4-3, 2 SV, 7.49 ERA, 17.6 R/9) either. If there's cavalry on the horizon, it might be Danny Graves, who looked sharp in three appearances at the end of the season (0 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 4.2 IP).

Last year, the Sharks were the team with the anemic offense (13th), but they moved up six spots in the offensive standings this year thanks to solid production throughout the lineup. This team has a lot of guys who can get things started: Miguel TejadaCF Johnny Damon (.299, .890 OPS, 34 HR, 124 R), C Jason Kendall (.301, .376 OBP, 20 2B, 89 R), 2B Tony Womack (.275, 62 R, 11 SB) and LF Shannon Stewart (.248, .654 OPS, 7 HR, 51 R). The heavy lumber is swung by 1B Sean Casey (.303, .889 OPS, 49 2B, 120 RBI), SS Miguel Tejada (.272, .777 OPS, 32 HR, 118 RBI), DH Jeff Bagwell (.283, .857 OPS, 16 HR, 51 RBI), 3B Corey Koskie (.269, .952 OPS, 34 HR, 78 RBI) and  RF Kevin Mench (.205, but 32 HR, 91 RBI). Against Santana, the Sharks will likely sit Bagwell in favor of Marquis Grissom (.292, .860 OPS in 168 AB vs LHP), Koskie for Joe Randa (.228, .640 OPS in 149 AB vs LHP), and Stewart for Eric Young (.254, .617 OPS in 142 AB). Coming off the bench are Luis A. Gonzalez (.317, .748 OPS in 41 AB), Mike Lieberthal (.256, .735 OPS in 86 AB) and Jermaine Dye (.167, .786 OPS in 12 AB) -- oh yeah, and Jason Giambi (.286, .905 OPS in 14 AB), one of the most dangerous reserves in baseball.

<>Philly's fifth-worst offense obviously isn't as deep as Honolulu's, but they have two hitters unmatched by anyone in the Shark lineup: 1B Albert Pujols (.309, .969 OPS, 39 HR, 127 RBI) and LF J.D. Drew (.322, .994 OPS, 34 HR, 126 R). But outside of those two, the only other Philly batter with even decent numbers is CF Matt Lawton (.298, .849 OPS, 22 HR, 92 R); no other regular topped an .800 OPS or .260 BA! The rest of the lineup is C Paul Lo Duca (.248, .626 OPS, 31 2B, 55 R); 2B Ray Durham (.256, .796 OPS, 8 HR, 32 R in 203 AB); 3B Scott Rolen (.238, .754 OPS, 26 HR, 95 RBI); SS Khalil Greene (.201, .543 OPS, 9 2B, 19 R in 189 AB); RF Juan Rivera (.254, .737 OPS, 3 HR, 5 RBI in 63 AB) and DH Justin Morneau (.243, .777 OPS, 23 HR, 73 RBI). Against lefties, Balboni will sit Rivera for Jose Guillen (.205, .569 OPS in 176 AB vs LHP) and Morneau for Mike Lamb (.342, .940 OPS in 111 AB vs LHP). The bench is Vernon Wells (.231, .613 OPS, 3 HR, 16 RBI in 156 AB), Brian Roberts (.217, .563 OPS in 92 AB) and Damian Miller (.213, .608 OPS in 47 AB). 

The bottom line: The Endzone Animals took eight out of the 12 games against the Sharks this year, but this could be a tough match-up for them. The Sharks are the hotter team right now -- they had the second-best record in baseball over the fourth quarter of the season (26-15), and took two out of their final three games against Philadelphia. They have a true ace in Schmidt to counter Santana, a tough Game 2 match-up with Oswalt facing Radke, and Giambi to come off the bench against a team without a left-handed reliever. On the other hand, the Sharks don't have a batter like Pujols or Drew who can carry them through the playoffs -- their best hitter, Tejada, hit just .272 with a .777 OPS during the regular season and will have to step that up in the post-season (not an easy task against the Philly pitching staff). Furthermore, the Animals have home-field advantage, and they took five out of the six games they played in the Eagle's Nest. For the Sharks to have a chance in this series, they'll have to "break serve" by taking Games 1 or 2 in Philly, then hope to take advantage of their jet lag by sweeping the next two in Honolulu.

Newark Sugar Bears (#1, 107-55) and Arkansas Golden Falcons (#2, 103-59)

Newark Sugar BearsArkansas Golden FalconsMeanwhile, division champions Newark Sugar Bears and Arkansas Golden Falcons get to sit this round out. Arkansas will face the lowest-seeded team that survives the first round, meaning Newark will face the Mighty Men if they pull off the upset, or the winner of the Philly/Honolulu match-up if Vancouver survives. During the bye week, the Falcs will stay sharp by playing scrimmages against 4 Way Lock and Door, while the Sugar Bears will take on the Livingston Little League all-stars.